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The Earth Cools, and Fight Over Warming Heats Up October 31, 2009

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The Earth Cools, and Fight Over Warming Heats Up

The Wall Street Journal, October 30, 2009

Many Scientists Say Temperature Drop From Recent Record Highs Is a Blip, While a Few See a Trend; Inexact Climate Models

Two years ago, a United Nations scientific panel won the Nobel Peace Prize after concluding that global warming is “unequivocal” and is “very likely” caused by man.

Then came a development unforeseen by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC: Data suggested that Earth’s temperature was beginning to drop.

That has reignited debate over what has become scientific consensus: that climate change is due not to nature, but to humans burning fossil fuels. Scientists who don’t believe in man-made global warming cite the cooling as evidence for their case. Those who do believe in man-made warming dismiss the cooling as a blip triggered by fleeting changes in ocean currents; they predict greenhouse gases will produce rising temperatures again soon.

The reality is more complex. A few years of cooling doesn’t mean that people aren’t heating up the planet over the long term. But the cooling wasn’t predicted by all the computer models that underlie climate science. That has led to one point of agreement: The models are imperfect.

“There is a lot of room for improvement” in the models, says Mojib Latif, a climate scientist in Germany and co-author of a paper predicting the planet will cool for perhaps a decade before starting to warm again — a long-term trend he attributes to greenhouse-gas emissions. “You need to know what you can believe and can’t believe from the models.”

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Beware the UN’s Copenhagen plot October 30, 2009

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Beware the UN’s Copenhagen plot

By Janet Albrechtsen
The Australian, October 28, 2009

SHAME on us all: on us in the media and on our politicians. Despite thousands of news reports, interviews, analyses, critiques and commentaries from journalists, what has the inquiring, intellectually sceptical media told us about the potential details of a Copenhagen treaty? And despite countless speeches, addresses, interviews, doorstops, moralising sermons from government ministers, pleas from Canberra for an outcome at Copenhagen, opposition criticism of government policy, what have our elected representatives told us about the potential details of a Copenhagen treaty?

With just over 40 days until more than 15,000 officials, advisers, diplomats, activists and journalists from more than 190 countries attend the UN climate change conference in Copenhagen, we know nothing. Nothing about a climate change treaty that the Rudd government is keen to sign and one that will bind this country for years to come.

Of course, there is no final treaty as yet. That is what they are hoping to finalise in Copenhagen. But there are 181 pages that make up the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change dated September 15, 2009: a rough draft of what could be signed in Copenhagen. And yet, not one member of the media or political class has bothered to inform us about its contents as an important clue to what may happen in Copenhagen. The shame of that state of affairs started to trickle in last week.

Emails started arriving telling me about a speech given by Christopher Monckton, a former adviser to Margaret Thatcher, at Bethel University in St Paul, Minnesota, on October 14. Monckton talked about something that no one has talked about in the lead-up to Copenhagen: the text of the draft Copenhagen treaty.

Even after Monckton’s speech, most of the media has duly ignored the substance of what he said. You don’t need me to find his St Paul address on YouTube. Interviewed on Monday morning by Alan Jones on Sydney radio station 2GB, Monckton warned that the aim of the Copenhagen draft treaty was to set up a transnational government on a scale the world has never before seen. Listening to the interview, my teenage daughters asked me whether this was true.

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Arctic refuses to behave; predictions adjusted October 29, 2009

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Arctic refuses to behave; predictions adjusted

By Andrew Bolt
Herald Sun, October 29, 09

Two years ago Californian researchers warned the ice in the Arctic could vanish in 2012Or thereabouts, agreed a NASA scientist. The US National Snow and Ice Data Centre claimed it could even be ice-free in 2008.

The Arctic ice in 2008 increased.

Oh. All right, so Al Gore in December 2008 adjusted his prediction of an ice-free Arctic to 2013:

Except the Arctic refreeze that winter was remarkably strong.

So early this year, Al Gore predicted the ice could vanish by 2014.

Yet the ice this year increased again.

Hmm. Britain’s Met Office now puts this catastrophism on ice – just for now:

Modelling of Arctic sea ice by the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model shows that ice invariably recovers from extreme events, and that the long-term trend of reduction is robust — with the first ice-free summer expected to occur between 2060 and 2080.

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Manufacturing Money and Global Warming October 28, 2009

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Manufacturing Money and Global Warming

Dr David Evans

Written by Dr. David Evans
SPPI, 27 October 2009

Money is power. You can use money to get people to do things for you, and to obtain real stuff. Most people will do almost anything, if you offer them enough money. In the current financial system, money is manufactured by central and private banks out of thin air: they make something from nothing. This is a great power. There is a system of checks and balances surrounding it, but the safeguards are imperfect. This is the story of the rise and abuse of that power.

The paper aristocracy, those who manufacture money and the financial smarties who work the system of paper money, have easy jobs and far more stuff than the rest of us. If you are not part of the paper aristocracy, you are effectively working for them, being subtly and persistently disadvantaged in ways you probably are not aware of. Ultimately those who wield the power to manufacture money have great financial and political influence, and have come to quietly rule the financial world.

This essay explains the story as simply as possible, for members of the public. There are a lot of interconnecting parts to the story, so unfortunately the essay cannot be short. So far most readers have found it eye-opening, informative, and thought-provoking. The essay starts a little slowly because we need to understand the basics of money manufacture, but then moves quickly.

And global warming? The money behind trading carbon emission permits will be colossal. The proposed system bears remarkable similarity to the paper money system: permits are manufactured out of nothing, given value by government decree, traded at a profit by big banks, and then the rest of us have to buy them. The same sort of game by the same people.

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Let me relieve you of your beachfront estate October 27, 2009

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Let me relieve you of your beachfront estate

Andrew Bolt
Herald Sun, October 27, 2009

If they’re in that much danger, why are they worth so much?

MORE than 80,000 buildings on Victoria’s coast will be at risk from the ravages of rising sea levels and extreme weather. The Western Port region is especially vulnerable amid estimates that 18,000 properties valued at almost $2 billion are in the danger zone… The alarming forecasts emerged last night in a new report tabled in Federal Parliament by the all-party House of Representatives Climate Change, Environment, Water and the Arts Committee.

If the Government really wants to “do something” about this calamity, here’s a free-market way to reward the right-believers and punish the deniers: arrange for these properties to be sold to sceptics. For a modest discount, we’ll surely take these worthless properties off their trembling hands. In fact, I’d be delighted to help Greg Combet, Minister Assisting the Minister for Climate Change, get rid of the property he so foolishly bought only two years ago that now will be among the first to go:

High-profile Labor candidate Greg Combet has bought a beach front house in one of Newcastle’s most exclusive suburbs…

In other words, leave it to the market to assess the true risk. Don’t impose your warming beliefs.

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Palms grew in ice-free Arctic 50 million years ago: study October 26, 2009

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Palm trees ‘flourished’ in Arctic – study

Via Courier Mail
October 26, 2009

PALMS flourished in the Arctic during a brief sweltering period about 50 million years ago, according to a study that hints at big gaps in scientific understanding of modern climate change.

The Arctic “would have looked very similar to the vegetation we now see in Florida,” Appy Sluijs of Utrecht University in the Netherlands said.

Evidence of palms has never been found so far north before.

The scientists, sampling sediments on a ridge on the seabed that was about 500km from the North Pole 53.5 million years ago, found pollens of ancient palms as well as of conifers, oaks, pecans and other trees.

“The presence of palm pollen implies that coldest month mean temperatures over the Arctic land masses were no less than 8C, the scientists, based in the Netherlands and Germany, wrote in the journal Nature Geoscience.

That contradicted computer model simulations – also used to predict future temperatures – that suggested winter temperatures were below freezing even in the unexplained hothouse period that lasted between 50,000 and 200,000 years in the Eocene epoch.

Palms are quickly killed by frost.

Mr Sluijs said that it was also striking that palms, which do not lose their leaves in winter, grew in an area where the sun does not shine for about five months.

Experiments with modern palms indicate that they can survive prolonged darkness.

The scientists said that presence of palms – it was not clear if they were trees or plants – hinted that the modern climate system could yield big surprises.

Temperatures are now rising because of man-made greenhouse gases, mainly from burning fossil fuels, according to the UN Climate Panel.

Arctic ice shrank in 2007 to its smallest size since satellite measurements began in the 1970s.

One possibility for the ancient spike in temperatures was an abrupt rise in carbon dioxide levels, to far beyond concentrations now.

That might have been caused by volcanic eruptions, or a melt of frozen methane trapped in the seabed.

“We cannot explain this with the current knowledge of the climate system,” Mr Sluijs said.

One possibility was that new types of clouds formed in the Arctic as it warmed, acting as a blanket that trapped ever more heat and accelerated warming.

“If the ocean was very warm it’s possible that these clouds form at a higher latitude than now,” he said.

Such effects caused by new cloud formation could be an unexpected tripwire in accelerating modern climate change.

More than 190 nations are due to meet in Copenhagen from December 7-18 to agree a new UN. climate treaty to replace the UN’s Kyoto Protocol.

The science of deceit by Professor Bob Carter October 25, 2009

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The science of deceit

Professor Bob Carter

Professor Bob Carter

by Professor Bob Carter
Quadrant Online, October 25, 2009

Science is about simplicity

A well-accepted aphorism about science, in the context of difference of opinion between two points of view, is “Madam, you are entitled to your own interpretation, but not to your own facts”.

The world stoker of the fires of global warming alarmism, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), cleverly suborns this dictum in two ways.

First, the IPCC accepts advice from influential groups of scientists who treat the data that underpins their published climate interpretations (collected, of course, using public research funds) as their own private property, and refuse to release it to other scientists.

Thus, confronted in 1996 with a request that he provide a U.S. peer-review referee with a copy of the data that underpinned a research paper that he had submitted, U.K. Hadley Climate Research Centre scientist Tom Wigley responded:

First, it is entirely unnecessary to have original “raw” data in order to review a scientific document. I know of no case at all in which such data were required by or provided to a referee ….. Second, while the data in question [model output from the U.K. Hadley Centre’s climate model] were generated using taxpayer money, this was U.K. taxpayer money. U.S. scientists therefore have no a priori right to such data. Furthermore, these data belong to individual scientists who produced them, not to the IPCC, and it is up to those scientists to decide who they give their data to.

In the face of such attitudes, which treat the established mores of scientific trust and method with contempt, it is scarcely surprising that it took Canadian statistics expert Steve McIntyre many years to get the primary data released that was used by another Hadley Centre scientist, Keith Briffa, in his published tree-ring reconstructions of past temperature from the Urals region, northern hemisphere. When he finally forced the release of the relevant data, McIntyre quickly proceeded to slay a second climate hockey-stick dragon which – like the first such beast fashioned by U.S. scientist Michael Mann, and widely promulgated by the IPCC – turned out to be based on faulty statistical methodology (see summary by Ross McKitrick here).

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Heaven and Earth: Global Warming, the Missing Science – Audio Interview with Professor Ian Plimer October 24, 2009

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Heaven and Earth: Global Warming, the Missing Science

Via Financial Sense, October 24, 2009

For audio interview click here

Climate, sea level, and ice sheets have always changed, and the changes observed today are less than those of the past. Climate changes are cyclical and are driven by the Earth’s position in the galaxy, the sun, wobbles in the Earth’s orbit, ocean currents, and plate tectonics. In previous times, atmospheric carbon dioxide was far higher than at present but did not drive climate change. No runaway greenhouse effect or acid oceans occurred during times of excessively high carbon dioxide. During past glaciations, carbon dioxide was higher than it is today. The non-scientific popular political view is that humans change climate. Do we have reason for concern about possible human-induced climate change?

This book’s 504 pages and over 2,300 references to peer-reviewed scientific literature and other authoritative sources engagingly synthesize what we know about the sun, earth, ice, water, and air. Importantly, in a parallel to his 1994 book challenging creation science, Telling Lies for God, Ian Plimer describes Al Gore’s book and movie An Inconvenient Truth as long on scientific misrepresentations. Trying to deal with these misrepresentations is somewhat like trying to argue with creationists, he writes, who misquote, concoct evidence, quote out of context, ignore contrary evidence, and create evidence ex nihilo.

Ian Plimer, twice winner of Australia’s highest scientific honor, the Eureka Prize, is professor in the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences at The University of Adelaide and is author of six other books written for the general public in addition to more than 120 scientific papers.

For audio interview with Professor Plimer click here

To order Heaven and Earth click here

Despite propaganda, 30% of Australians aren’t fooled October 24, 2009

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Despite propaganda, 30% of Australians aren’t fooled

JoNova, October 24, 2009

The Question: Do increasing amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere pose an unacceptable risk of a catastrophic change in earth’s temperature in the future?

Of 1022 people polled, 55% agreed and 31% opposed (including the 19% who strongly opposed). Nearly half, or 45% are not convinced a catastrophe is on the way due to carbon dioxide. Source: OnlineOpinion

My sense is that the curve of opinion on this complex science is the inverse of what you would expect. Normally on a complex scientific topic, the most common answer would be neither agree nor disagree (or don’t know), and the strong opinions would taper off like a bell curve with few people being sure either way. Instead opinions are polarized. “Catastrophic” is strong language. One side here is passionately wrong.

With 3000 times as much funding supporting the side with professional PR teams, the endless repetition of the assumption that man-made carbon dioxide causes warming is becoming a liability in itself. The more the advocates for action whitewash, the more people grow suspicious. They more they bully, the more people get a gut feeling that things are not right. The harder the activists push, the stronger the opposition becomes. The only thing that would rescue the case for Cap N trade or an ETS is good scientific evidence. James Hansen and Al Gore can hardly claim they can’t get their message across in the media, so we wonder why they keep the evidence a secret?

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Barking Mad! October 23, 2009

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Here’s another reason why future generations will be mocking us….

Save the planet: eat a dog?

Via Stuff.co.nz
22 October, 2009

The eco-pawprint of a pet dog is twice that of a 4.6-litre Land Cruiser driven 10,000 kilometres a year, researchers have found.

Victoria University professors Brenda and Robert Vale, architects who specialise in sustainable living, say pet owners should swap cats and dogs for creatures they can eat, such as chickens or rabbits, in their provocative new book Time to Eat the Dog: The real guide to sustainable living.

The couple have assessed the carbon emissions created bypopular pets, taking into account the ingredients of pet food and the land needed to create them.

“If you have a German shepherd or similar-sized dog, for example, its impact every year is exactly the same as driving a large car around,” Brenda Vale said.

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