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Arctic refuses to behave; predictions adjusted October 29, 2009

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Arctic refuses to behave; predictions adjusted

By Andrew Bolt
Herald Sun, October 29, 09

Two years ago Californian researchers warned the ice in the Arctic could vanish in 2012Or thereabouts, agreed a NASA scientist. The US National Snow and Ice Data Centre claimed it could even be ice-free in 2008.

The Arctic ice in 2008 increased.

Oh. All right, so Al Gore in December 2008 adjusted his prediction of an ice-free Arctic to 2013:

Except the Arctic refreeze that winter was remarkably strong.

So early this year, Al Gore predicted the ice could vanish by 2014.

Yet the ice this year increased again.

Hmm. Britain’s Met Office now puts this catastrophism on ice – just for now:

Modelling of Arctic sea ice by the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model shows that ice invariably recovers from extreme events, and that the long-term trend of reduction is robust — with the first ice-free summer expected to occur between 2060 and 2080.

Read the rest here

Oil to the rescue of the ice-bound warmist August 20, 2009

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Oil to the rescue of the ice-bound warmist

Andrew Bolt
Herald Sun, August 20, 2009

Eric Forsyth, captain of the eco-yacht Fiona, is alarmed:

Within the next generation two problems of global proportions threaten the way of life as we now know it in the United States. They are:

1. Global Climate Change
2. Global Depletion of Fossil Fuel

To alert the rest of us to this peril, he decides to sail through the fable North West Passage, highlighting the terrible ice melt in the Arctic.

Small problem:

AUGUST 17, 2009

Last night, 16 Aug, we got hopelessly trapped by the ice. Despite a favorable ice report we encountered 8/10ths ice, with many old, i.e. large, bergs. We spent the night tied to one of them but had to leave this morning when another ‘berg collided with us and tipped Fiona over. We got away but the space around us is shrinking. I called the Canadian Coast Guard at noon and they are sending an icebreaker, due here tomorrow. We are NOT in immediate danger. Watch this space for developments.

There’s a shock. Too much ice for this warming catastrophist, who now needs rescuing by a ship powered by that evil fossil fuel Forsyth rejects, in theory at least.

Of course, Forsyth sure isn’t the first alarmist to be nearly killed by the Arctic ice he felt sure wouldn’t be there.

NSIDC issues documentation corrections – WUWT guest post a catalyst December 24, 2008

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NSIDC issues documentation corrections – WUWT guest post a catalyst

From Watts Up with That?, December 24, 2008

– WUWT guest post a catalyst

24 12 2008

You may recall the guest post from Jeff Id of the Air Vent I carried about a week ago called Global Sea Ice Trend Since 1979 – surprising

In that post, a note of correction was issued because that we were led to believe (by Tamino) that the entire post was “invalidated” due to an error in accounting for ice area very near the pole. Both Jeff and I were roundly criticized for “not reading the documentation”, which was one of the more civil criticisms over there at Tamino’s site.

After further investigation It turns out that the error was in NSIDC’s public documentation, and they have issued a correction to it. Even more importantly the correction now affects NSIDC’s own trend graph, and they are considering how to handle it.

This episode illustrates how citizen science can be useful. Sometimes people too close to the science they publish can make mistakes, (we’ve all been there) which is why peer review of papers is important.  But “web review” in this day and age of instant publication is equally important.  It also illustrates how mistakes, however embarrassing initially, can be useful if you learn from them and study the cause.  There is no shame in mistakes if they are corrected and you learn from them.  But, the blogospheric noise of angry and sometimes juvenile criticism (on both sides) really isn’t useful as it often masks the real issue. The key is to put that aside and find the truth behind the error. Jeff has done that. His update follows below.

Merry Christmas to everyone!  – Anthony


Based on The Air Vent post carried by Watts Up With That, the National Snow Ice Data Center has issued several corrections to the documentation of their sea ice area time series.Guest post by Jeff ID

Most will remember my earlier post which plotted global sea ice trends. After initially concluding that the global ice level wasn’t decreasing measurably Tamino pointed out a problem in my analysis. After issuing my corrections, thanks and apologies to Tamino and the um…..thousands of readers of Watts Up With That, I went back to work investigating what was really happening to the ice area time series.

It was actually quite lucky that Tamino mentioned the step in the data and criticized me for not reading carefully (something which was mentioned in several comments on the various threads). When I first learned of it, I found the criticism was based on an entirely different set of ice area data with different source documentation. Still, I checked closely and found the tiny step in the time series and was convinced that I had missed something. I had spent a huge amount of time learning the data before I made my post so it was frustrating to say the least. Understand, I used several resources to check my work; not the least of which was the National Snow Ice Data Center (NSIDC) anomaly graph which has the same shape as the one I generated.

The first graph below is from the NSIDC website, the second is my calc. Differences in the noise between the two are explained by the daily resolution used in my graph compared to what my eyes tell me must be monthly data for their plot. They also seem to have an additional year (2007) in their data plot which is not available in the bootstrap time series I used.

Read the rest click link below

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/24/nsidc-issues-documentation-corrections

Arctic doomed again and again December 14, 2008

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(Note from the blogowner, honestclimate, I have added these predictions of the Arctic melting to my predictions page, which can be viewed here)

Arctic doomed again and again

From the Andrew Bolt blog, December 14, 2008

Take down their names and addresses. In six years we will need them:

Scientists warn climate change is causing ice in the Canadian Arctic to melt so quickly, the region will have an ice-free season in six years… Dr. David Barber, one of the scientists on the expedition, says “the Arctic is telling us that climate change is coming quicker and stronger.”

Hmm. Barber? Wasn’t he warning us early this year that the Arctic could be ice free this northern summer?  Why, yes:

We’re actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history],” David Barber, of the University of Manitoba, told National Geographic News aboard the C.C.G.S. Amundsen, a Canadian research icebreaker.”

So how did that last prediction of his work out? Here’s the ice at the Arctic after the summer had melted it most (left) and how it’s rebounded nicely since:

image

Climate Sanity explains just why Barber’s latest claim, repeated without any scepticism by the ABC, of course, is just as likely to go bung, and offers a bet.

UPDATE

No matter how extreme your green policy, Bob Brown will simply trump it – and without going to the bother of credibly explaining how he’d do what he promised and how much it would cost:

Instead of a 5 to 15percent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020, Australia must aim now at reducing output by 100percent (building a zero-emissions economy) by 2050, with reductions of at least 40percent below 1990 levels by 2020.

People actually vote for this bloke. That’s the scariest bit.

UPDATE 2

Meanwhile, Britain shivvers:

It is the coldest start to December since 1976, when the average was 33.4F (0.8C).

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/total_solution_from_totalitarians

Arctic Ice Extent Now Likely Highest Level Since 2002 November 10, 2008

Posted by honestclimate in Global Cooling.
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Joseph D’Aleo

Joseph D’Aleo

Arctic Ice Extent Now Likely Highest Level Since 2002

From ICECAP, November 8, 2008

By Joseph D’Aleo

The latest daily arctic sea ice extent chart from IJIS shows the current year ice extent at the highest level in the record back to 2002. (2003 was missing).

image
See larger image here

The daily extents on November 7 look like this:

image
See larger image here

This represents an increase of 655,781 square kilometers over last November 7 or 7.4%. Side-by-side images from the Cryosphere show there is more ice on both the Pacific and Atlantic side this year. This is 44 days before the start of the Northern Hemisphere winter and 5 months before it will peak.

image
See larger image here
See pdf here.

2008 has been a great year for Polar Bears! October 29, 2008

Posted by honestclimate in Global Cooling, Temperature.
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2008 has been a great year for Polar Bears!

Chilling

By the blogowner, honestclimate, October 29, 2008

Not only is the world no warmer today than it was in 1998, the decrease in global temperatures in 2008 has been massive. The UK Met Office has said 2008 is set be the coldest year this century(this may well be the only climate prediction they get right!). With record cold temperatures being set around the world and the arctic ice now 30% over last year, it truly has been a great year for polar bears!

Sea ice area approaching the edge of normal standard deviation October 23, 2008

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Sea ice area approaching the edge of normal standard deviation

From Watts Up with That?, October 22, 2008

Watching arctic sea ice rebound this year has been exciting, more so since a few predictions and expeditions predicated on a record low sea ice this past summer failed miserably. I’ve spent a lot of time this month looking at the graph of sea ice extent from the IARC-JAXA website, which plots satellite derived sea-ice extent. However, there is another website that also plots the same satellite derived data, the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center of Bergen Norway, and they have an added bonus: a standard deviation shaded area. For those that don’t know what standard deviation is, here is a brief explanation from Wiki

…standard deviation remains the most common measure of statistical dispersion, measuring how widely spread the values in a data set are. If many data points are close to the mean, then the standard deviation is small; if many data points are far from the mean, then the standard deviation is large. If all data values are equal, then the standard deviation is zero.

In a nutshell, you could say that any data point that falls within the standard deviation area would be considered “within normal variances” for the data set. That said, current sea ice extent and area data endpoints (red line) are both approaching the edge of the standard deviation (gray shading) for both data sets. Here is sea ice area:

Click for a larger image And here is sea ice extent:

Read the rest, click below link

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/22/sea-ice-approaching-the-edge-of-normal-standard-deviation

Ice Reality Check: Arctic Ice Now 31.3% Over Last Year, plus Scientists Counter Latest Arctic ‘Record’ Warmth Claims as ‘Pseudoscience’ October 18, 2008

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Ice Reality Check: Arctic Ice Now 31.3% Over Last Year, plus Scientists Counter Latest Arctic Record’ Warmth Claims as ‘Pseudoscience’”

From Watts Up with That?, October 18, 2008

Sea Ice Extent

10/17/2007 5,663,125 square kilometers

10/17/2008 7,436,406 square kilometers

Δice = 1,773,281 sqkm or 31.3% more than last year

Source data here: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv (Excel file)

You’ve probably heard by now how this new story circulating this week claims “record warmth” and that we are in the peak time of melting. Meanwhile, “back at the ranch”, sea ice extent continues a steady upward climb as shown above.

Scientists Counter Latest Arctic ‘Record’ Warmth Claims as ‘Pseudoscience’ – Comprehensive Arctic Data Round Up – October 17, 2008

Claim: Newspaper article claims Arctic Temps Peak in November – Claims Arctic offers ‘early warning signs’ – McClatchy Newspapers – October 16, 2008

Excerpt: Temperatures in the Arctic last fall hit an all-time high – more than 9 degrees Fahrenheit (5 degrees Centigrade) above normal – and remain almost as high this year, an international team of scientists reported Thursday. “The year 2007 was the warmest year on record in the Arctic,” said Jackie Richter-Menge, a climate expert at the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory in Hanover, N.H, and editor of the latest annual Arctic Report Card. “These are dynamic and dramatic times in the Arctic,” she said. “The outlook isn’t good.” Arctic temperatures naturally peak in October and November, after sea ice shrinks during the summer. […] Scientists say these changes in the Arctic are early warning signs of what may be coming for the rest of the world’s climate.

Read the rest, click below link
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/18/ice-reality-check-scientists-counter-latest-arctic-record-warmth-claims-as-pseudoscience

Arctic sea ice now 28.7% higher than this date last year – still rallying October 15, 2008

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Arctic sea ice now 28.7% higher than this date last year – still rallying

From Watts Up with That?, October 14, 2008

10/14/2008 7,064,219 square kilometers

10/14/2007 5,487,656 square kilometers

A difference of: 1,576,563 square kilometers, now in fairness, 2008 was a leap year, so to avoid that criticism, the value of 6,857,188 square kilometers can be used which is the 10/13/08 value, for a difference of 1,369,532 sq km. Still not too shabby at 24.9 %. The one day gain between 10/13/08 and 10/14/08 of 3.8% is also quite impressive.

You can download the source data in an Excel file at the IARC-JAXA website, which plots satellite derived sea-ice extent:

Sea Ice Extent

Watch the red line as it progresses. So far we are back to above 2005 levels, and 28.7% (or 24.9% depending on how you want to look at it) ahead of last year at this time. That’s quite a jump, basically a 3x gain, since the minimum of 9% over 2007 set on September 16th. Read about that here.

Go nature!

Read more click below link
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/15/arctic-sea-ice-now-287-higher-than-this-date-last-year-still-climbing

Arctic sea ice continues to rebound, quick link graphic added October 14, 2008

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Arctic sea ice continues to rebound, quick link graphic added

From Watts Up with That?, October 13, 2008

Sea Ice Extent

I’ve been so impressed with the recovery thus far for Arctic sea ice, I’ve added a live icon for it in the lower right under the global satellite image. Just click on it to get a full sized graph like above.

Watch the red line as it progresses. So far we are back to 2005 levels, and significantly ahead of last year at this time.

Read more click below link

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/13/arctic-sea-ice-continues-to-rebound-quick-link-graphic-added