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AARI Predicts Arctic Cooling/Ice Recovery To Continue May 7, 2009

Posted by honestclimate in Discussions.
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AARI Predicts Arctic Cooling/Ice Recovery To Continue

By Joseph D’Aleo (h/t to Dr. Gary Sharp)


Arctic ice extent appears to have bottomed out in 2007, and has recovered the last two years as shown by this graph from the University of Illinois Cryosphere.


It has returned to very near the 1979-2000 year average (NSIDC). Had NSIDC used the entire period of record as their base period (1979-2008), we would be at or above the average.


The most competent polar scientific organization, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) in St. Petersburg, Russia published recently 3 books summarizing scientific results of climate changes in the Arctic region for the last century. One of it dedicated to Arctic climate. Based on the results obtained they forecast coming temperature and sea ice cover area changes in the Polar seas for the next several decades.

Anomaly of mean annual air surface temperature 1900-2006 in the zone of 70-90 N and its predicted trend (Frolov et al. Scientific research in Arctic. Vol. 2. Climatic changes in the ice cover of the Eurasian shelf seas. -SPb.: “Nauka”, 2007, 158 p.) Larger image here.

The authors showed that the Arctic climate changes are natural in origin and several orders or magnitude greater than the anthropogenic impact on the climate. Estimates of possible changes of Arctic air temperature and ice cover propagation area for the 21st century are given on a basis of the revealed stable cyclic oscillations of 10, 20 and 50 to 60 years. See PDF here.


1. Doug Proctor - July 2, 2010

1. What is the basis of the Russian cycles? Do they have 150 year data? Why a return to lower temperatures – the cycles are not cummulative but bounce between limited end members of gain and loss? Is there a full English text?

2. WHY doesn’t NASA use all the post 1979 data? What are their reasons? What does the full NASA dataset trend look like?

Thanks – it is hard to remember that elsewhere in the world “facts” prevail, and conspiracy alarms don’t go off everytime a global climate statement is made (how ironic it is that we distrust the American sources and trust the Russian on this one!)

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