UK’s Met Office blows another summer forecast

UK’s Met Office blows another summer forecast

by Steven Goddard

From Watts Up With That?, September 6, 2008

A Chronology of UK Met Office press releases

The UK Met office is the official UK meteorological agency and is one of the leading promoters of the idea of climate change. Their web site is in fact titled “Met Office: Weather and climate change.”
In 2007, they made several notable predictions, starting with this one on Jan 4.“2007 is likely to be the warmest year on record globally, beating the current record set in 1998, say climate-change experts at the Met Office.”

On April 11, 2007 they issued this press release stating “there is a high probability that summer temperature will exceed the 1971-2000 long-term average of 14.1 °C ….. there are no indications of an increased risk of a particularly dry or particularly wet summer.” This was interpreted by The Guardian as “Britain set to enjoy another sizzling summer.“

On August 31 The Met announced that summer 2007 was the wettest on record with ”normal temperatures,” though his description did not adequately describe the miserable summer – because high temperatures and sunshine were well below normal.

On August 10, The Met Office proudly announced new climate models which included modeling of ”the effects of sea surface temperatures as well as other factors such as man-made emissions of greenhouse gases, projected changes in the sun’s output and the effects of previous volcanic eruptions.” The same press release forecast that “2014 is likely to be 0.3 °C warmer than 2004.“

Turns out that global temperatures in 2007 dropped nearly 0.8 degrees according to satellite data, one of the sharpest drops on record. In order to hit The Met’s 2014 prediction, there will have to be a large increase over the next few years. So how is The Met doing in 2008 with the new models?

On April 3, 2008 the Met made their annual UK summer forecast – “The coming summer is expected to be a ‘typical British summer’, according to long-range forecasts issued today. Summer temperatures across the UK are more likely to be warmer than average and rainfall near or above average for the three months of summer.“

On August 29, 2008 The Met reported that the summer of 2008 was “one of the wettest on record across the UK.” Here is how the Independent described the UK summer – “It has been a miserable summer for bugs as well as people….The combined effect of low temperatures and rain has presented Britain’s invertebrates with a double whammy.“

The Met is getting a new Chief Scientist – Julia Slingo. In the July 22 announcement she said “I am delighted to be returning to the Met Office after 28 years and to lead work into enhanced weather and climate-change science, and importantly see this deliver improved services to societies in the UK and around the world.“
We wish Professor Slingo best wishes and look forward to seeing the “improved services.” If the spate of miserable summers is to continue, Brits should know so that they can at least plan holidays someplace warm and sunny, like the Arctic.

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