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HadCrut3 Temperature Anomaly April 2009 May 24, 2009

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HadCrut3 Temperature Anomaly April 2009

(April 2008 to April 2009 )

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HadCrut3April09

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HadCrut3 Temperature Anomaly February 2009 March 14, 2009

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HadCrut3 Temperature Anomaly February 2009

(February 2008 to February 2009 )

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hadcrut3feb

UK Met Office: Coldest Winter in over a decade but would have been even colder without global warming February 26, 2009

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UK Met Office: Coldest Winter in over a decade but would have been even colder without global warming

By the  blogowner, honestclimate, February 26, 2009

Extract from UK Met Office news report:

Mild weather is expected to see out what remains of winter. Despite this, it is expected to be the coldest UK winter since 1995/96, according to provisional Met Office figures.

The low temperatures have also been accompanied at times by heavy snow. During early February, the heaviest snowfall for 18 years was experienced over many areas of the UK.

Reading further along

Natural variability of climate means that the UK will continue to see spells of colder weather at times. Although, if it had not been for the general warming already observed in global temperatures, this winter may well have been even colder.

Yes, thank goodness for global warming!

Read the full Met Office report here

Satellite Data Show No Warming Before 1997. Changes Since Not Related to CO2 February 20, 2009

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Satellite Data Show No Warming Before 1997. Changes Since Not Related to CO2

By Arno Arrak

Posted on ICECAP

A full analysis of satellite-measured lower tropospheric temperatures indicates that none of the global temperature variations from 1978 to 2008 can be attributed to the effect of carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas. The record shows global climate oscillations with a period of three to five years and a peak-to-peak amplitude of 0.4 to 0.5 degrees Celsius about a common, fixed mean temperature that lasted from 1978 to 1997. Since this mean
temperature did not change for twenty years the late twentieth century warming touted by IPCC and others simply did not happen. The cause of these newly discovered climate oscillations is large-scale periodic movement of ocean waters from shore to shore, part of the El Nino � Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system. It is accompanied by a massive, periodic transfer of heat from the oceans to the atmosphere and back again which was previously
unsuspected and which is detectable even in land-based records. This major atmospheric phenomenon is missing from all IPCC Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and thereby invalidates conclusions drawn from their climate models. Satellite records show that this oscillatory period ended with a giant warming peak known as the “super El Nino of 1998.”

This unusual peak does not belong to the oscillatory ENSO system but interrupts it and could well be of cosmogenic origin. After it subsided the interrupted ENSO oscillation continued. But it had been energized from that warm peak and in three years the global temperature rose to a plateau 0.2 degrees above previous peaks. The expected climate downturn that should have followed failed to occur and temperature stayed up there for six years. It lasted from 2001 to 2007. This “twenty first century high,” together with the warming peak that preceded it, accounts for recent accelerated loss of arctic ice. Contrary to carbon dioxide theory the world temperature did not increase but stayed the same during this period. The period ended with a climate downturn in 2007.

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Carbon dioxide cannot explain the lack of warming in the eighties and nineties, nor any of the abrupt warmings that followed, nor the stasis of the twenty first century high, nor the temperature downturn that followed it in 2007 and bottomed out in 2008. A direct comparison of these satellite data with ground-based measurements is also possible. Comparing satellite (UAH MSU LT) and land-based (HadCRUT3) data for the eighties and nineties gives HadCRUT3 a warming trend of 0.1 degrees Celsius per decade (one degree per century) while lower tropospheric satellite data show no warming at all. This is compounded by the fact that satellite measurements of midtropospheric temperature show a long-term cooling effect for this period. Looking for sources
of error in ground-based data one is led to the usual suspect, the urban heat island effect.

Fatal computer errors in IPCC climate models derive from the fact that none of the abrupt warmings and coolings on the record, especially since 1998, can be attributed to the greenhouse effect. Hence, all IPCC models purporting to predict (project??) climate a hundred years into the future are invalid and their predictions/projections must be discarded. To summarize: existing theory used by the IPCC can neither explain the observed climate nor predict the future. Carbon dioxide warming has been shown to be non-existent in the eighties and nineties, and the warming since 1998 is not carbonaceous in origin. It follows that Quijotic carbon dioxide policies like the Kyoto Protocol and the cap-and-trade laws should be abandoned. See post here.

Updated Al Gore / AIT Index: Globally averaged temperatures have decreased -.14°F (-.08°C) since An Inconvenient Truth was released February 20, 2009

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Updated Al Gore / AIT Index: Globally averaged temperatures have decreased -.14°F (-.08°C) since An Inconvenient Truth was released

From Gore Lied, February 20, 2009

GORE LIED has been tracking the globally averaged temperatures since Al Gore’s science fiction movie, An Inconvenient Truth was released.

As we do each month GORE LIED has marked up in red Dr. Roy Spencer’s UAH Globally Averaged Satellite-Based Temperature of the Lower Troposphere monthly report, to show in vivid color Gore’s real inconvenient truth.

This month’s report:

Globally averaged temperatures have dropped approximately .14°F (.08°C) since An Inconvenient Truth was released.

That’s not all, a quick glance at the graph shows globally averaged temperatures have remained below the January 24, 2006 benchmark (when Gore’s movie was released at the Sundance Film Festival) except for the first few months of 2007.

HadCrut3 Temperature Anomaly January 2009 February 19, 2009

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HadCrut3 Temperature Anomaly January 2009

( January 2008 to January 2009 )

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The UK Climate Impact Programme Forecasting Scoresheet January 27, 2009

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The UK Climate Impact Programme Forecasting Scoresheet

From Watts Up With That, January 27, 2009

Guest Post by Steven Goddard

The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) is a government funded organization with the following scientifically neutral mission statement on their home pageThe UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) helps organisations to adapt to inevitable climate change. While it’s essential to reduce future greenhouse gas emissions, the effects of past emissions will continue to be felt for decades.

On their headline messages page they have a list of global warming predictions and supporting evidence.  In this article we will examine some of their claims and evidence.

Claim: Summers will continue to get hotter and drier…

  • Evidence: Total summer precipitation has decreased in most parts of the UK, typically by between 10 and 40% since 1961.

According to the UK Met Office, the summer of 2007 was the wettest summer on record.  Summer, 2008 was the wettest on record in Northern Ireland, and broke many local rainfall records in England.  The last hot day in London (30C or 86F) was on July 27, 2006.  London is normally one of the UK’s warmest locations in summer, and it has been 915 days since London has seen any “hot” weather.

Claim: Winters will continue to get milder and wetter…

  • Evidence: Average winter temperature for all regions of the UK has risen by up to 0.7 °C since 1914..

The Met office reported last month: “Temperatures from the Met Office have revealed that the UK has had the coldest start to winter in over 30 years.

This month, the Met Office reported:The British Isles has experienced almost a fortnight of freezing conditions. Temperatures as low as -9 °C have been fairly common throughout southern areas of the UK, with temperatures struggling to rise above freezing in some places.
This winter has not only been unusually cold, but it has also been unusually dry in the UK.
Read the rest here

United States and Global Data Integrity Issues January 25, 2009

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United States and Global Data Integrity Issues

From ICECAP

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow

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Issues with the United States and especially the global data bases make them inappropriate to use for trend analysis and thus any important policy decisions based on climate change. These issues include inadequate adjustments for urban data, bad instrument siting, use of instruments with proven biases that are not adjusted for, major global station dropout, an increase in missing monthly data and questionable adjustment practices.

NOAA NCDC USHCN – US CLIMATE DATA

When first implemented in 1990 as USHCN version1, it employed 1221 stations across the United States. In 1999, NASA’s James Hansen published this graph of USHCN version 1 annual mean temperatures:

image

About which Hansen correctly noted: “The U.S. has warmed during the past century, but the warming hardly exceeds year-to-year variability. Indeed, in the U.S. the warmest decade was the 1930s and the warmest year was 1934.”

USHCN was generally accepted as the world’s best data base of temperatures with the stations most continuous and stable, and adjustments made for time of observation, urbanization, known land use changes around sites, and instrumentation changes, each of which can produce major contamination issues for temperature data.

NOAA NCDC removed the urbanization adjustment of Karl et al ( 1988 ) in version 2 in 2007. GISS continues to adjust US data for urban heat islands using the satellite determined brightness which categorizes stations as rural, small towns and cities. Here is the latest GISS plot of the US temperatures.

image
See larger image here.

The difference between the NOAA NCDC USHCN version 2 and GISS shows that NOAA’s new algorithm fails to correct for urbanization warming. In fact the NCDC changes have introduced a warming of 0.75F in the 75 years since 1930. Man made warming indeed but the men are in Asheville, NC.

image
See larger image here.

See in the linked PDF how this and other issues creates serious questions about the NOAA US data. Also see how GISS urban adjustment globally fails the test largely because of the lack of accurate metadata (population, siting particulars etc) with about as many urban areas adjusted up as down and how NOAA GHCN and Hadley CRUT3v perform no UHI adjustment but accounts for urbanization by simply increasing the uncertainty by a mere 0.1C per CENTURY.

See how all the other issues most notably major station dropout and missing data, bad siting equipment issues make all the global data bases completely unreliable for trend assessment or for policy decision making. The only reliable data base is the satellite MSU (RSS and UAH) but unfortunately it goes only back to 1979.

My thanks to Ken Gregory of Friends of Science for providing a synopsis of the many excellent and relevant posts by Steve McIntyre on GISS data and of course to Steve and Anthony Watts for their superb work that benefited this report. Again see pdf here.

HadCrut3 Temperature Anomaly December 2008 January 23, 2009

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HadCrut3 Temperature Anomaly December 2008

( January 2008 to December 2008 )


Source

GISS Divergence with satellite temperatures since the start of 2003 January 19, 2009

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GISS Divergence with satellite temperatures since the start of 2003

From Watts Up withThat, January 18, 2009

By Steve Goddard and Anthony Watts

Some of the excellent readers of the last piece we posted on WUWT gave me an idea, which we are following up on here.  The exercise here is to compare GISS and satellite data (UAH and RSS) since the start of 2003, and then propose one possible source of divergence between the GISS and satellite data.  The reason that the start of 2003 was chosen, is because satellite data shows a rapid decline in temperatures starting then, and GISS data does not.  The only exception to the downward trend was an El Nino at the start of 2007, which caused a short but steep spike.  Remembering back a couple of years, Dr. Hansen had in fact suggested that El Nino might turn into a “Super El Nino” which would cause 2007 to be the “hottest year ever.”

The last six years ( 2003-2008 ) show a steep temperature drop in the satellite record, which is not present in the GISS data.   Prior to 2003, the three trends were all close enough to be considered reasonably consistent, but over the last six years is when a large divergence has become very apparent both visually and mathematically.

Click link for larger source image http://www.woodfortrees.org

Since the beginning of 2003, RSS has been dropping at 3.60C/century, UAH has been dropping at 2.84C/century, and GISS has been dropping at 0.96C/century.  All calculations are done in a Google Spreadsheet here:

The divergence between GISS and RSS is shown below.  Since the start of 2003, GISS has been diverging from RSS at 2.64C/century, and GISS has been diverging from UAH at 1.87C/century.  RSS has been diverging from UAH at minus 0.76C/century, indicating that RSS temperatures have been falling a little faster than UAH over the last six years, as can also be seen in the graph above.

Read the rest here