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It’s ‘the hottest year on record’, as long as you don’t take its temperature December 18, 2010

Posted by honestclimate in Discussions.
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It’s ‘the hottest year on record’, as long as you don’t take its temperature

Christopher Booker

By Christopher Booker
The Telegraph, 18 December 2010

Much of the data cited to support warmist claims is pure conjecture, says Christopher Booker

We have lately heard much of the claim that 2010 will turn out to have been “the hottest year on record”. No one has done more to promote this belief than Dr James Hansen, head of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), responsible for one of the four main official global temperature records.

As reported by the US blogs Real Science and Watts Up With That, in a post headed “GISS temperatures out of line with the rest of the world”, the GISS record has in recent months been diverging wildly from the others. While three have shown global temperatures dropping sharply, by as much as 0.3C, the GISS figures (based, despite the link to Nasa, on surface temperatures) have shot up by 0.2C.

In a second post (“Hansen’s ‘Hottest Year Ever’ is primarily based on fabricated data”), Real Science demonstrates that the parts of the world which GISS shows to be heating up the most are so short of weather stations that only 25 per cent of the figures are based on actual temperature readings. The rest are simply conjectured by GISS. This is not the first time Dr Hansen’s temperature record has come under expert fire. Three years ago, GISS was forced to revise many of its figures when it was shown that wholesale “adjustments” had been made, revising older temperatures downwards and post-2000 figures upwards.

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James Hansen’s Former NASA Supervisor Declares Himself a Skeptic – Says Hansen ‘Embarrassed NASA’, ‘Was Never Muzzled’, & Models ‘Useless’ January 28, 2009

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James Hansen’s Former NASA Supervisor Declares Himself a Skeptic – Says Hansen ‘Embarrassed NASA’, ‘Was Never Muzzled’, & Models ‘Useless’

From Watts Up With That, January 28, 2009

nasa_logoThis is something I thought I’d never see. This press release today is from the Senate EPW blog of Jame Inhofe. The scientist making the claims in the headline, Dr. John S. Theon, formerly of the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Arlington, Virginia, has a paper here in the AMS BAMS that you may also find interesting. Other papers are available here in Google Scholar. He also worked on the report of the Space Shuttle Challenger accident report and according to that document was a significant contributor to weather forecasting improvements:

The Space Shuttle Weather Forecasting Advisory Panel, chaired by Dr. John Theon, was established by NASA Headquarters to review existing weather support capabilities and plans and to recommend a course of action to the NSTS Program. Included on the panel were representatives from NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Air Force, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

For those just joining the climate discussion, Dr. James Hansen is the chief climate scientist at NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and is the man who originally raised the alarm on global warming in 1988 in an appearance before congress. He is also the keeper of the most often cited climate data.

EPW press release below – Anthony

Washington DC, Jan 27th 2009: NASA warming scientist James Hansen, one of former Vice-President Al Gore’s closest allies in the promotion of man-made global warming fears, is being publicly rebuked by his former supervisor at NASA.Retired senior NASA atmospheric scientist, Dr. John S. Theon, the former supervisor of James Hansen, NASA’s vocal man-made global warming fear soothsayer, has now publicly declared himself a skeptic and declared that Hansen “embarrassed NASA” with his alarming climate claims and said Hansen was “was never muzzled.” Theon joins the rapidly growing ranks of international scientists abandoning the promotion of man-made global warming fears.

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Beware global warming propaganda of the future: Fast forward to the year 2028 December 17, 2008

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Beware global warming propaganda of the future:  Fast forward to the year 2028

By the blogowner, honestclimate, December 17, 2008

GISS, NOAA, GHCN and the odd Russian temperature anomaly – “It’s all pipes!” November 16, 2008

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GISS, NOAA, GHCN and the odd Russian temperature anomaly – “It’s all pipes!”

From Watts Up With That?, Nove,ber 16, 2008

As most readers know by now, the problematic GISTEMP global temperature anomaly plot for October is heavily weighted by temperatures from weather stations in Russia.


GISTEMP 11-12-08 – Click for larger image

Like in the USA, weather stations tend to be distributed according to population density, with the more populated western portion of Russia having more weather stations than the less populated eastern areas such as Siberia. To illustrate this, here is a plot of Russian Weather Station locations from the University of Melbourne:

Click picture for larger image, source image is here

Interestingly, the greatest magnitude of the GISTEMP anomaly plot for October is in these mostly unpopulated areas where the weather station density is the lowest. While I was pondering this curiosity, one of the WUWT readers, Corky Boyd, did a little research and passed this along in email:

…Posters at Watts Up have commented on the ongoing consistently high anomalous temperatures from Russia. I have noticed this too.  In light of the erroneously posted data for October, I took a look at the monthly NCDC climate reports back to January 2007.  By my eyeball estimate the results from Russia are almost all on the high side. .  Some I classified as very highs are massively high.  Of the 21 months reported, only 2 appeared to be below average.

Category 2007 2008 (9 months)
Very high                     6                        4
High                            3                        1
Average                      2                        3
Low                            0                        1
Very Low                    1                        0

Is there a way to validate or invalidate GISS data  by comparing it to RISS?   Does it strike you as odd that the verifiably erroneous data has shown up in the same area that was suspect in the first place?  Could there be a pattern?

Corky also sent along a series of images depicting global near surface and ocean temperature anomalies from NOAA. Here is the most recent one from September 2008:

Read the rest of the article, click below link

Questions on the evolution of the GISS temperature product November 15, 2008

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Questions on the evolution of the GISS temperature product

From Watts Up With That, November 14, 2008

Blink comparator of GISS USA temperature anomaly – h/t to Zapruder

The last time I checked, the earth does not retroactively change it’s near surface temperature.

True, all data sets go through some corrections, such as the recent change RSS made to improve the quality of the satellite record which consists of a number of satellite spliced together. However, in the case of the near surface temperature record, we have many long period stations than span the majority of the time period shown above, and they have already been adjusted for TOBS, SHAP, FILNET etc by NOAA prior to being distributed for use by organizations like GISS. These adjustments add mostly a positive bias.

In the recent data replication fiasco, GISS blames NOAA for providing flawed data rather than their failure to catch the repeated data from September to October. In that case they are correct that the issue arose with NOAA, but in business when you are the supplier of a product, most savvy businessmen take a “the buck stops here” approach when it comes to correcting a product flaw, rather than blaming the supplier. GISS provides a product for public consumption worldwide, so it seems to me that they should pony up to taking responsibility for errors that appear in their own product.

In the case above, what could be the explanation for the product changing?


Hathaway announces the bleeding obvious November 13, 2008

Posted by honestclimate in sunspots.
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Hathaway announces the bleeding obvious

From Solar Science Blog, November 13, 2008

NASA’s David Hathaway has announced, again, that Solar Cycle 24 may have begun:

After more than two years of very low sunspot activity and hardly any flares, the sun is ramping up activity now.

The sun’s activity ebbs and flows on a roughly 11-year cycle. It can range from very quiet to violent space storms that knock out power grids on Earth and disrupt radio and satellite communications. The last peak was in 2000, and scientists have in recent months figured the low point was occurring. Fresh sunspots during October suggest the corner has been turned.

“I think solar minimum is behind us,” said David Hathaway of NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala. “Last month we counted five sunspot groups.” he says.

Sunspots are cool areas on the solar surface where magnetic energy is bottled up. While five groups is not extraordinary, it is significant in comparison to the months of virtually no spots.

“This represents a real increase in solar activity,” Hathaway said in a statement today.

Your tax money at work. At least he won’t have to keep stretching out the start of SC24 every few months.


Did Napoleon Use Hansen’s Temperature Data? November 13, 2008

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Did Napoleon Use Hansen’s Temperature Data?

From ClimateAudit

It’s colder in Russia in October than in September, as Napoleon found out to his cost in 1812.

Sitting in the ashes of a ruined city without having received the Russian capitulation, and facing a Russian maneuver forcing him out of Moscow, Napoleon started his long retreat by the middle of October.

Flash forward almost 200 years later. NASA has just reported record warmth in October throughout Russia, with many sites experiencing similar temperatures in October as in September – perhaps the sort of situation that Napoleon had hoped for (not similar as anomalies, but similar in actual temperatures in deg C.)

Actually, many stations didn’t just experience similar absolute monthly temperatures. Many stations had exactly the same monthly temperatures in October as in September. Here are the last three years for the Russian station, Olenek, showing NASA GISS monthly temperatures (in deg C) bolding Sept and Oct 2008. October 2007 had an average temperature of -9 deg C, as compared to 3.1 deg C in Sept 2007. October 2008 had the identical temperature as September 2008.

2006 -34.0 -29.9 -23.5 -18.1 1.6 10.6 16.9 11.5 4.4 -14.6 -27.7 -29.1
2007 -27.9 -41.5 -21.6 -4.0 0.1 12.4 13.5 11.3 3.1 -9.0 -24.8 999.9
2008 -30.0 -29.4 -19.6 -13.4 1.3 12.0 13.1 12.1 3.1 3.1 999.9 999.9

This exact match of October 2008 to September 2008 was repeated at many other Russian stations. A CA reader notified me of this phenomenon earlier today and I’ve confirmed for myself that the information is accurate. Based on what he described as a “Cursory” look, he sent me the following list currently “updated” stations that exactly replicate the Sept data: Almaty, Omsk, Salehard, Semipalatinsk, Turuhansk, Tobol’sk, Verhojansk, Viljujsk, Vilnius, Vologda. I can add Hatanga, Suntora, GMO ImEKF. Not all stations were affected – Dzerszan, Ostrov Kotal, Jakutsk, Cokurdah appear to have correct results.

Let’s consider the opposite situation. Suppose that March temperatures had been inadvertently carried forward into April, yielding a massive cold anomaly in Russia. One feels that Hansen would have been all over the opposite error like a dog on a bone – he would have been his own bulldog.

In any event, we here at Climate Audit are always eager to assist NASA. On earlier occasions, we helped identify the lost city of Wellington, New Zealand, where NASA has been unable to locate climate records for nearly 30 years.

Today, we are able to provide NASA with up-to-date weather reports confirming that October in Russia is colder than September. Verhojansk temperatures are conveniently online here and temperatures are currently a nippy -18 deg C.

You’re welcome, Jim.


Record hot October in James Hansen’s oven November 11, 2008

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Record hot October in James Hansen’s oven



By the blogowner, honestclimate, November 11, 2008

Yes ladies and gentlemen, just when you think it can’t get any worse, James Hansen’s GISS reports October 2008 as the hottest October month on record. That’s right, record cold and snow around the globe has caused a record hot October month according to GISS.

Now apparently GISS was using some September temperatures in the October data and they were happy to release the data to the public. Now come on, you don’t need a degree in climatology to know it can’t possibly be the hottest October recorded if there’s been record cold around the globe!

But then again what do you expect from GISS data when they claimed 2007 was the hottest on record. And what do you expect when the head of GISS, James Hansen willingly flies around the world to defend vandalism of coal power plants!

I do expect NASA to downplay the whole issue. I suspect that they will say something along the lines of, it was just a minor oversight but the trend is still up and therefore the GISS data isn’t broken, just like the hockey stick isn’t broken…

Why are these “oversights” always in their favour?

Read more on the fraudulent GISS data on the websites below:



NASA: Sun is “blankety blankest” it’s been in the Space Age October 1, 2008

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NASA: Sun is “blankety blankest” it’s been in the Space Age

From Watts Up with That?, September 30, 2008

From NASA Science News h/t to John-X

Spotless Sun: 2008 is the Blankest Year of the Space Age

Sept. 30, 2008: Astronomers who count sunspots have announced that 2008 is now the “blankest year” of the Space Age.

As of Sept. 27, 2008, the sun had been blank, i.e., had no visible sunspots, on 200 days of the year. To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go back to 1954, three years before the launch of Sputnik, when the sun was blank 241 times.

“Sunspot counts are at a 50-year low,” says solar physicist David Hathaway of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. “We’re experiencing a deep minimum of the solar cycle.”

see caption

Click below link for the rest of the article