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“Global Warming” Has Stopped November 2, 2008

Posted by honestclimate in Global Cooling, Temperature.
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“Global Warming” Has Stopped

Lord Monckton

Lord Monckton

From ICECAP, October 31, 2008

By Lord Monckton

In a blog post, Bill Chameides says “global warming” is still happening. It isn’t. As the global temperature graph below shows, all four of the world’s major global surface temperature datasets (NASA GISS; RSS; UAH; and Hadley/University of East Anglia) show a decline in temperatures that have now persisted for seven years.

‘Global warming’? What ‘global warming’? All four of the world’s major surface temperature datasets show seven years of global cooling. The straight lines are the regression lines showing the trend over past seven years. It is decisively downward. Chameides’ graph overleaf appears to have been tampered with to exclude the very rapid cooling that occurred between 2007 (the curve stops in January 2007, when a strong El Nino artificially but temporarily boosted temperatures) and 2008. The fall in temperatures between January 2007 and January 2008, carefully not shown on Chameides’ graph, was the greatest January-January fall since records began in 1880.

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The UAH graph provides a complete answer to the Chameides’ attempt to suggest that skeptics” are confusing short-term and longer-term temperature changes. The year 2008 will turn out to have been no warmer than 1980 � 28 years ago. This is not a short-run change: the cooling trend set in as far back as late 2001, seven full years ago, and there has been no net warming since 1995 on any measure. Next, Chameides attempts to suggest that the recent cooling is caused by solar activity. He could well be right – however, if so, by the same token the warming that stopped in 1998 could also have been caused by solar activity – there was, after all, a solar Grand Maximum in the last 70 years of the 20th century, during which the sun was more active and for longer than at almost any previous similar period in the whole of the past 11,400 years.

Scafetta and West (2008) attribute more than two-thirds of the warming of the past 50 years to solar activity – the latest in a series of papers in all parts of the scientific literature that explicitly question the exaggerated estimates of climate sensitivity`perpetrated by the IPCC. Chameides’ final, desperate point is that the “green diamonds” he has so carefully selected from the 5-year running-mean graph that he has equally carefully blotted out show continuously-rising temperatures that overlay what he calls the short-term cooling.

Not so. As the first graph above shows, the linear regression not just for the past five years but for the past seven years shows a decisive and continuing cooling. Keenlyside et al. (2008) do not expect a new record year for global temperature to occur until at least 2015. If they are right, then the IPCC’s climate-sensitivity estimates must be – as Monckton (2008) finds them to be – prodigious exaggerations. False data will no longer convince any impartial mind to believe in the fantasy of anthropogenic “global warming”?

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Climate Sensitivity Reconsidered October 2, 2008

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Climate Sensitivity Reconsidered

Lord Monckton

Lord Monckton

By Lord Monckton

From SPPI, September 12, 2008

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) concluded that anthropogenic CO2 emissions probably caused more than half of the “global warming” of the past 50 years and would cause further rapid warming. However, global mean surface temperature TS has not risen since 1998 and may have fallen since late 2001. The present analysis suggests that the failure of the IPCC’s models to predict this and many other climatic phenomena arises from defects in its evaluation of the three factors whose product is climate sensitivity:

1) Radiative forcing

2) The no-feedbacks climate sensitivity parameter and

3) The feedback multiplier

Some reasons why the IPCC’s estimates may be excessive and unsafe are explained. More importantly, the conclusion is that, perhaps, there is no “climate crisis”, and that currently-fashionable efforts by governments to reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions are pointless, may be ill-conceived, and could even be harmful.

Read the rest of the article, click below link

http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/monckton/climate_sensitivity_reconsidered.html

Holy Writ or Wholly Rot? The new religion of “global warming” September 28, 2008

Posted by honestclimate in Discussions, Global Cooling, Temperature.
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Holy Writ or Wholly Rot? The new religion of “global warming”

Lord Monckton

Lord Monckton

By Lord Monckton

From SPPI, September 26, 2008

Christopher Monckton of Brenchley replies to a True Believer in the Canadian Civil Service.

Dear Sir Humphrey –

The “Abundance of scientific statements” that you mention as justification of your belief in ‘global warming’ is no sound or logical basis for deciding or believing anything. The question is whether the scientific statements have any rational justification, and whether those making them are in effect making statements that are political rather than scientific, rent-seeking rather than objective. After all, this is the age of reason (or it was). Therefore, one should not accord to “scientists” the status of infallible high priests merely because they mumble a hieratic language with which one is unfamiliar.

There is clear, compelling evidence that many of the major conclusions of the IPCC, your new religion’s constantly-changing Holy Book, are based on evidence that has been fabricated. The “hockey stick” graph that purported to abolish the mediaeval warm period is just one example. So let me try to lure you away from feeble-minded, religious belief in the Church of “Global Warming” and back towards the use of the faculty of reason.

Read the rest of the article, click below link

http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/monckton/holy_writ_or_wholly_rot_the_new_religion_of_global_warming_.html

Hockey Stick? What Hockey Stick? September 26, 2008

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Hockey Stick? What Hockey Stick?

Lord Monckton

Lord Monckton

By Lord Monckton

From SPPI, September12, 2008

An extraordinary series of postings at www.climateaudit.org, the deservedly well trafficked website of the courageous and tenacious Canadian statistician Steve McIntyre, is a remarkable indictment of the corruption and cynicism that is rife among the alarmist climate scientists favored by the UN’s discredited climate panel, the IPCC.

In laymen’s language, the present paper respectfully summarizes Steve McIntyre’s account of the systematically dishonest manner in which the “hockey-stick” graph falsely showing that today’s temperatures are warmer than those that prevailed during the medieval climate optimum was fabricated in 1998/9, adopted as the poster-child of climate panic by the IPCC in its 2001 climate assessment, and then retained in its 2007 assessment report despite having been demolished in the scientific literature.

It is a long tale, but well worth following. No one who reads it will ever again trust the IPCC or the “scientists” and environmental extremists who author its climate assessments.

Read the rest of the article, click link below:

http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/monckton/what_hockey_stick.html