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Warmist ‘hockey stick’ smashed up November 26, 2008

Posted by honestclimate in Temperature.
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Warmist ‘hockey stick’ smashed up

By Christopher Chantrill

From the American Thinker, November 24, 2008

They smashed up the “hockey stick” at Climate Audit on Sunday. The “hockey stick” is a chart developed by Michael Mann et al. ten years ago that showed that global temperatures were pretty constant until about 100 years ago when they began to shoot up (hence “hockey stick”).  It was based on a statistical analysis of numerous temperature “proxies” such as tree ring width on bristle-cone pine trees.

Willis Eschenbach of climateaudit.org did some statistical analysis of his own.  He asked: which of the Mannian temperature proxies actually carry the “hockey-stick” signal?

The answer was devastating.  Out of the 95 data series in the latest Mann paper that covered the entire last 1,000 years, only 25 carried the “hockey stick” signal.  Three of these series are lake sediments in Finland which are corrupted by recent urban development and the rest are from bristle-cone pine trees in the US Southwest that have been challenged by other researchers.
Take the “hockey stick” proxies out and you get a signal that shows a Medieval Warming Period a thousand years ago and a Little Ice Age 300 years ago.  What a surprise!


Will the Real Hockey Stick Please Stand Up? October 12, 2008

Posted by honestclimate in Discussions.
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Will the Real Hockey Stick Please Stand Up?

From the Air Vent Blog, October 11, 2008

I won’ t abuse you with my venting today. Mostly pictures. Pretty interesting ones I think.

I used the CPS method today with actual proxies from M08. Instead of the infilled data with the fake hockey stick glued on the end I used the original original 1357 series before processing. I also chopped off the 95 Luterbacher series which aren’t really proxies, they are temperature. It didn’t make any big difference to the shape of graphs in my results but I don’t like em.

There are more pre-deletion Luterbacher series in this data set because they were re-scrambled from 95 into 71 series for M08 most likely using RegEm according to their locations. I previously did a software pattern match for the original 89 Luter to the final 71 and found no match, yet the average was the same.

Anyway, to the fun. I used M08 CPS and r correlation to scale and sort data according to different trends. The point of this article is to show you can produce any trend you want from this method. ANYTHING!

The red line is the temperature trend I am claiming in each graph was true. The blue is the CPS algorithm temperature reconstruction. Since the big claim in M08 was the percentage of series which passed correlation 484 of 1209 take a look at the Percent used in the graphs below.

200 year Hockey stick

Read the rest of the article, click below link


See also: Building a “Hockey” stick


Hockey Stick? What Hockey Stick? September 26, 2008

Posted by honestclimate in Discussions.
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Hockey Stick? What Hockey Stick?

Lord Monckton

Lord Monckton

By Lord Monckton

From SPPI, September12, 2008

An extraordinary series of postings at www.climateaudit.org, the deservedly well trafficked website of the courageous and tenacious Canadian statistician Steve McIntyre, is a remarkable indictment of the corruption and cynicism that is rife among the alarmist climate scientists favored by the UN’s discredited climate panel, the IPCC.

In laymen’s language, the present paper respectfully summarizes Steve McIntyre’s account of the systematically dishonest manner in which the “hockey-stick” graph falsely showing that today’s temperatures are warmer than those that prevailed during the medieval climate optimum was fabricated in 1998/9, adopted as the poster-child of climate panic by the IPCC in its 2001 climate assessment, and then retained in its 2007 assessment report despite having been demolished in the scientific literature.

It is a long tale, but well worth following. No one who reads it will ever again trust the IPCC or the “scientists” and environmental extremists who author its climate assessments.

Read the rest of the article, click link below: