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CROSSROADS by Professor Will Alexander November 14, 2008

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CROSSROADS by Professor Will Alexander

Via Email, November 14, 2008

Professor William Alexander

Professor William Alexander

Dear all,

All those emails urging me to continue made me feel bad. However, there has been another major development. Our Minister of Water Affairs and Forestry has informed the public that climate change will be included in water resource development in South Africa. This is an impossible task for the reasons explained in the attached memo.

Who will inform the minister? Or will she continue to be misled by the Water Research Commission and the climate alarmist fraternity?

Floods are occurring in the western and southern Cape as I write this email. This is the region that FIFTEEN scientists predicted would become warmer and drier as a result of global warming, (Midgley et al 2005).

How will this affect my drought prediction? We will never know because climatologists have refused to evaluate it.

I must end on a friendly note to those on the other side of the climate change fence. I have worked closely and enthusiastically with the Water Research Commission, natural scientists and SAWS colleagues over the years. This climate change issue has soured our relationship to the extent that we are now in opposing camps.

The well-funded WWF has financed research projects at UCT and elsewhere. Now Greenpeace has opened an office in Cape Town. Have you not noticed the growing opposition by African countries to interference in our affairs by the old colonial powers? Examples are SADC’s rejection of EU pressures regarding the Zimbabwe problem, and South Africa’s rejection of EU pressures insisting that the EU be given favoured nation status in trade agreements.

The WWF and Greenpeace are not welcome in this country. Nor are the activities of their South African lackeys.

Environmental pressures are increasing at a time of rising political and economic instability driven by increasing unemployment and poverty. The division between the poor and the affluent communities is widening. Your vigorous pro-environmental, anti-social actions will soon be seen as pressures by a small, affluent white community who have no concern at all for South Africa’s large and growing, economically disadvantaged black communities.


Read the rest of Professor Alexander’s memo, click the more button below


Professor Will Alexander’s Last Post November 8, 2008

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Professor Will Alexander’s Last Post

Professor William Alexander

Professor William Alexander

Via E-mail, November 9, 2008

Last Post

Tuesday 11 November 2008. (Post-dated for nostalgic reasons.)

There was a time in my life when my daily routine was governed by bugle calls. The day started with Reveille which reminded us that it was time to crawl out from under our blankets. The next call was to come to the cookhouse for breakfast. There were several other calls during the course of the day. The strident Alarm call got us running to our tents to collect our rifles and fall in on the parade ground. The most nostalgic bugle call was the Last Post, particularly on a quiet night. It was time to crawl under the blankets again.

My Last Post for 2008 has just sounded. I have one unfinished task before I crawl under the blankets.

For 83 years South African climatologists have failed to address this problem.

What is the most important climate-related problem facing South Africa? Obviously it is widespread, severe droughts. What is the most important step that can be taken to reduce the impact of these droughts? Obviously it is the development of an early warning system so that the authorities can start taking steps to minimise the inevitable consequences.

These two linked philosophies are as old as civilisation itself. The most famous example is Joseph’s biblical prophecy of seven good years followed by seven years of famine. Fortunately, there were only two people involved in the process. Joseph who provided the warning, and Pharaoh who had faith in him and issued the necessary instructions.

Today the situation is far more complex. There is no Pharaoh who has the power to issue the instructions. Joseph is surrounded by yapping dogs displaying signs with phrases such as ‘coincidence is not causality’. They imply that no action should be taken until a scientifically solid linkage has been found between an impending drought and its causes.

A strange philosophy exists within the climate alarmist community. If you cannot produce the causes, the phenomenon does not exist. They have powerful and influential allies especially in the environmental sciences. Over the years, the climate change fraternity have done their best to denigrate me and my conclusions. I have responded in kind.

Like Joseph, for the past 30 years I have studied the wealth of observations from a water supply perspective. My motive (as well as that of many other civil engineers in this field) was the development of reliable prediction ability so that others can take the necessary action to minimise the consequences. Together with colleagues, I have developed this ability and published the results.

During the past year I have been very active in trying to persuade professional institutions and others to take heed of our warnings but to no avail. I even submitted a detailed research proposal to the Water Research Commission last July.

This week I made a decision. I’m not prepared to continue acting like some Don Quixote tilting at windmills. Nobody in authority has displayed an interest. The Water Research Commission published a vitriolic article contesting the basis of our prediction. This is the undeniable 21-year periodicity in the hydro-climatic data and its synchronous linkage with variations in solar activity.

My colleague Fred Bailey has produced solid evidence that demonstrates large variations in solar energy received on earth. They are of a magnitude denied in the IPCC’s documents and by its South African followers. I have shown that the orbital motions of the planets described by Fred Bailey are also synchronous with the 21-year periodicity in the hydroclimatic data and sudden climatic reversals. Our conclusions are incontestable as they are based on facts not theories.

I have gone further. Putting everything together, I have issued a warning as serious as that issued by Joseph some 3500 years ago. We have just entered a period where severe, widespread droughts can be expected.<Read paper click here> It comes at a time when our water resources approach the limits of their exploitation. Unemployment, poverty, malnutrition, disease and associated civil disturbances are increasing. We have severe electricity supply problems. Our economy is suffering from the global economic recession. Environmental extremism is flourishing because our scientific and engineering institutions are gutless.

There is little more that I can do. I have withdrawn my research proposal submitted to the Water Research Commission.

My Last Post has sounded. It is now time for me to blow out the candle and pull the blankets over my head. Outside all is quiet. If some bugler sounds the Alarm it will be too late. I feel tremendously sorry for all those who will be adversely affected by the complete lack of interest in our drought warning and the reprehensible actions of the climate and environmental extremists.


I finished writing the above on Saturday afternoon in time to watch the South Africa vs Wales rugby match. Before the start of the match the teams stood to attention while a bugler played the Last Post. Ceremonial wreaths of poppies were laid on the field. In the UK people wear poppies in their lapels in memory of all those who lost their lives in the service of their country during the two world wars.

I have no poppies to wear but I still have memories of those who were less fortunate than I was during the war.

When the droughts occur, I will have no hesitation in exposing the activities of all those who deliberately sought to suppress the dissemination of my research findings and the distribution of my warnings that could have minimised the loss of lives, livelihoods and damage to the national economy.

In the meantime there is little more that I can do.

ETHICS IN SCIENCE October 14, 2008

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Professor William Alexander

Professor William Alexander

By Professor Will Alexander

Via email, October 11, 2008

I was prompted to write the attached memo by the announcement of a workshop on ethics in science, engineering and technology to be held on 28 October. Obviously there is some concern in this field.

For the past few days the global economic situation has rapidly deteriorated. These were some phrases used this morning (Friday) in the TV news reports.

Mayhem in Asian markets – Bush to address the nation – stock markets plummet overnight – biggest drop since Black Monday in October 1987 – recession in full swing – black Friday – a critical moment in history – shellshock – market knocked down – worldwide economic recession – extreme unease – Wall Street’s worst week in history – crisis of confidence.

Quite independently of this, the Internet is full of growing criticism of climate alarmism and those who practise it. These are some examples.

Time to erase the emissions trading nightmare. – The growing revolt against climate alarmism. – All over the world, the alarmists are alarmed. – The growing scientific dissent and the refusal of the weather to follow the IPCC computer model forecasts have been joined by growing economic reality. – The battle is just starting. – We must kill this snake before it is set loose to multiply and spread its venom. [Climate Sense Coalition, Australia 10 October 2008.]

In another development, two days ago a South African colleague e-mailed a copy of a 350 page report published by Transparency International, Cambridge University Press and the Water Integrity Network titled GLOBAL CORRUPTION REPORT 2008. CORRUPTION IN THE WATER SECTOR.

The introduction includes the phrase “corruption is a cause and catalyst for this water crisis, which is likely to be further exacerbated by climate change. Corruption affects all aspects of the water sector, from water resource management to drinking water services, irrigation and hydro power….”

As shown in the attached and earlier memos, current climate change science as practised by the climate extremists is itself fraudulent. What is the difference between politicians and administrators putting money in their pockets, and scientists adopting scientifically fraudulent methods to generate research funding?

This brings me to another e-mail that I have just received from another South African colleague. It included a press release headed MAJOR GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS MITIGATION PROJECT. The project was undertaken by the University of Cape Town’s Energy Research Centre.

I have two questions. What is the basis for the researchers’ assumption that undesirable greenhouse gas emissions cause global warming with all its postulated consequences? Recent research refutes this assumption. The earth stopped warming 10 years ago despite continually increasing global greenhouse gas emissions. So what will be achieved by reducing South Africa’s emissions?

A second question: what will be the effect of the implementation of the proposals on South Africa’s climate? This information is also being withheld from the public for the simple reason that the climate alarmists are unable to determine it. How then can the researchers maintain that South Africa’s emissions must peak, plateau and decline, so that the country makes a meaningful contribution to keeping the temperature increase to below two degrees Celsius? This claim is absolute nonsense and grossly misleading.

The press release included the often repeated statement that South Africa’s per capita emissions are among the highest in the world. They failed to inform readers that our total emissions are miniscule compared with those of the major developed and developing nations of the world. Why did they not provide readers with South Africa’s percentage contribution to global emissions? Readers would then have realised the futility of the reduction measures that they propose. The impression created by using the per capita criterion instead of the global contribution criterion, which was the motivation for the research, is both fraudulent and misleading.

My colleague had this to say in his covering email. What is it with these chaps? Perhaps they should shut down their fancy computers, and go back to reading research data first, and then using calculators, adding machines and logs, when they should (hopefully) learn again how to judge the ORDER of things, and not just accept outspewings from some doubtful program just because “the computer says it is so”!!

Millions of people on the African continent are starving. Yet the climate and environmental alarmists are more concerned with the health of the Kokerbooms in the Kalahari and the butterflies in the Kruger National Park than the welfare of the thousands of shack dwellers living in abject poverty within kilometers of their air conditioned offices.

Perhaps you will now understand my frustration and anger with this unscientific and unethical climate alarmism and those who propagate it.

To read the rest of Professor Alexander’s memo click on “more”


Posted by honestclimate in Discussions, Global Cooling.
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Professor Will Alexander

Professor Will Alexander

By Professor Will Alexander

Via email, October 2, 2008

photo not part of original article

photo not part of original article

For more than 30 years I have studied the South African hydrometeorological data. As time passed and more data were collected, the signal of multiyear periodicity in the data and its synchronous linkage with changes in solar activity became stronger. Last year five of us published a paper in which we demonstrated an incontestable linkage between periodic variations in the data and the acceleration and deceleration of the sun as it moves along its trajectory through galactic space.

It also became increasingly clear that drought periods were predictable, and that we are about to enter a period when national, and possibly global droughts can be expected. These predictions were published in the civil engineering literature.

In this and the previous memo I have included copies of reports written during severe droughts of the 1980s, well before the birth of climate alarmism.

Climate alarmists followed an altogether different path. They ignored the solid evidence in the recorded data. Instead, they developed global prediction models based on process theory. Unfortunately, since the establishment of the IPCC 20 years ago, they have yet to produce solid, regional scale evidence to support their theories.

Now their case is in disarray. In their 2005 report they predicted that global warming would result in higher temperatures and a decrease in rainfall and river flow in the Western Cape. As described in my recent memos, the globe stopped warming 10 years ago. During the past season the opposite occurred in the winter rainfall area. The temperatures were colder and the rainfall and river flows were the highest in many years.

Climate change theory is fundamentally in error. Those who practise it are deluding themselves and the public they serve.

The real tragedy is that the scientific research institutions active in this field continue to ignore the very real prospect of severe droughts in the years ahead, and the action that is required to minimise the consequences. South Africans, particularly the disadvantaged urban and rural communities, will soon start suffering as a result of this neglect. Social and political unrest will follow. Zimbabwe is an example. Are South African scientists prepared to ignore this risk and accept the consequences?

To simplify the situation, consider a group of people on a raft drifting helplessly down a river. There are rapids ahead. They have to make an immediate decision. What is the greatest risk – clinging to the raft and hoping for the best or abandoning the raft and swimming to the safety of the river bank?

William J.R. Alexander is Professor Emeritus of the Department of Civil and Biosystems Engineering of the University of Pretoria, and Honorary Fellow of the South African Institution of Civil Engineering. He was a member of the UN Scientific and Technical Committee on Natural Disasters from 1994 to the end of the international decade in 2000.
His interest in climate change commenced in 1993 when climatologists produced alarmist predictions that were contrary to studies by civil engineers extending back to the 1950s

Click on the “more” icon below for the second part of Professor Alexander’s memo


A Lethal Global Cocktail – why we should be concerned September 22, 2008

Posted by honestclimate in Global Cooling, sunspots.
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A lethal global cocktail – why we should be very concerned

By the blogowner, honestclimate, September 22, 2008

What do you get when you mix the following ingredients together?

Global Financial Crisis

+Global Cooling (extreme cooling predicted)

+Global Drought (severe drought predicted 2009-2016)

global drought

global financial crisis

global cooling

= A Lethal Global Cocktail

We have recently witnessed a financial crisis not seen in a long time, just last week Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. Lehman Brothers was the oldest bank in the United States, a bank heavily invested in the politics of climate change, but couldn’t even predict its own downfall.

Now we have news of an impending global drought and global cooling, mix this in with the current financial crisis and we have reason for concern.

I’d like to share with you predictions by 2 well respected scientists:

The first by Professor William Alexander who has predicted a severe global drought from 2009-2016.

The second is a global cooling prediction by Professor Joseph D’Aleo.

Click here for Professor William Alexander’s Drought Prediction paper

Click here for Professor Joseph D’Aleo’s article on Global Cooling

As you can see we are in for some really tough times, whilst our politicians insist on squandering millions upon millions upon trying to prevent global warming, something us humans clearly have no control of. After all, the globe has refused to warm since 1998, whilst human co2 has increased substantially.