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Forecasting the Future November 9, 2009

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Forecasting the Future

By Dr. Vincent Gray
ICECAP, November 8, 2009

“Forecasting is difficult: particularly about the future” This piece of wisdom is attributed to Yogi Bear.  But it does not apply to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, since they do not make “forecasts” at all, only “projections”.  As they make clear, “projections” are dependent on the correctness of the assumptions made by the computer models and the futures scenarios from which they are made.

This has not always been so. In the first IPCC Report (1990). on the first page of the “Executive Summary” there was nearly a whole page headed “ Based on current model results, we predict” with no less than ten actual “predictions”.They used the phrase “models predict” several times throughout, but they did, at least admit that there were “uncertainties”.

Chapter 4 was entitled “Validation of Climate Models”. Paragraph 4,12 “Methods and Problems of Model Validation” showed that such validation is quite a problem, and it seemed to show that, so far, no model has been truly validated. Chapter 8 “Detection of the Greenhouse Effect in the Observations” had the answer when it said (paragraph 8.4) “the fact that we have not yet detected the enhanced greenhouse effect leads to the question: when is this likely to occur”

The next Report (1995) had, in its first draft, another Chapter 4 “Validation of Climate Models”. I commented (with, perhaps, others), that since no model had ever been validated, according to their own opinions, the title was inappropriate. So in the next draft they changed the word “validation” to “evaluation” no less that fifty times, and that report and all subsequent ones have not used the terms “predict”, “forecast”, or “validate”. Also there has been no further discussion on how validation might be made. This is true of all of the four parts of the Fourth Report.

I frequently quote this example from their “Frequently Asked Question 1.2”: “A common confusion between weather and climate arises when scientists are asked how they can predict climate 50 years from now when they cannot predict the weather a few weeks from now. The chaotic nature of weather makes it unpredictable beyond a few days. Projecting changes in climate (i.e., long-term average weather) due to changes in atmospheric composition or other factors is a very different and much more manageable issue”.

Note that they insist that all they do is “project”. They are admitting that “scientists cannot “predict climate 50 years from now”. No wonder there is “A common confusion”, The claim that their “projections” are “very different” and “much more manageable” does not include a claim that they can provide successful predictions.

And yet, the politicians, activists and many ordinary people seem to be under the delusion that the IPCC “projections” actually can be regarded as “forecasts” to the extent of promoting all manner of economically damaging measures in the belief of countering them. The above statement seems also to agree that the only scientists capable of actually predicting are the weather forecasters and it might be worth while to examine how this has been achieved, however imperfect it may seem.

Despite all this, the public, the media and the politicians seem to think that the IPCC “projections” are “forecasts” even when the IPCC denies it. It is therefore useful to see whether these projections show any success as forecasts.

The following (enlarged here) table shows a comparison between the “projections” of the IPCC and the observed figures, extrapolated to 2010 from the latest available information. It shows that the IPCC are within range of prediction for population, coal production, CO2 emissions and CO2 concentrations, but they are completely wrong on methane concentrations, global temperature change and sea level change. It might be mentioned that the “projections” for global GDP are also all wrong, but I have been unable to find figures that make adequate allowance for the changes in the US dollar.

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See full newsletter PDF here.

See also the post “Global Warming Predictions Invalidated” by Doug L. Hoffman on The Resilient Earth reporting on the new study in the journal Science has just shown that all of the climate modeling results of the past are erroneous here.

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DR VINCENT GRAY UPDATES ‘GLOBAL WARMING SCAM’ PAPER September 23, 2009

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DR VINCENT GRAY UPDATES ‘GLOBAL WARMING SCAM’ PAPER

Dr Vincent Gray

Dr Vincent Gray

Via NZ Climate Science Coalition

Dr Vincent Gray, expert reviewer of IPCC Assessment Reports since their inception, has up-dated his extensive paper “The Global Warming Scam”,  (to August 2009), in which he shows that none of the evidence presented by IPCC confirms a relationship between emissions of greenhouse gases and any harmful effect on the climate.

LINK to download Word doc  (NB: May need to click on empty spaces to bring up graphs and figures)

THE TRIUMPH OF DOUBLESPEAK – HOW UNIPCC FOOLS MOST OF THE PEOPLE ALL OF THE TIME June 28, 2009

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THE TRIUMPH OF DOUBLESPEAK – HOW UNIPCC FOOLS MOST OF THE PEOPLE ALL OF THE TIME

Dr Vincent Gray

Dr Vincent Gray

NZ Climate Science, 26 June 2009

Dr Vincent Gray has been an expert reviewer of all four Assessment Reports issued by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

In his latest Envirotruth No 212, Dr Gray explains the origins of the term “climate change”, how it came to exclude natural causes, and how the IPCC manipulates language to mislead the unwary into accepting as fact scenarios that are derived from computer models that are unable to reproduce the realities of Nature.

Read it here

Defying Predictions, Sea Level Rise Begins to Slow December 16, 2008

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Defying Predictions, Sea Level Rise Begins to Slow

By Michael Asher, Daily Tech

World’s oceans rise slower since 2005, fail to display predicted accelerating trend. Satellite altimetry data indicates that the rate at which the world’s oceans are rising has slowed significantly since 2005. Before the decrease, sea level had been rising by more than 3mm/year, which corresponds to an increase of about one foot per century. Since 2005, however, the rate has been closer to 2mm/year.

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Source: University of Colorado, Boulder

The decrease is significant as global climate models predict sea level rise to accelerate as atmospheric CO2 continues to increase. In the 1990s, when such acceleration appeared to be occurring, some scientists pointed to it as confirmation the models were operating correctly. Sea level rise was calculated from altimetry data from the TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellite missions, published by the University of Colorado, Boulder.

Dr. James Choe, a research associate with the University of Colorado, says the decrease is temporary. “Interannual variations often cause the rate to rise or fall”, he says. Choe believes an accelerating trend will reappear within the next few years. Oceanographer Gary Mitchum of the University of South Florida, says making any judgement from the limited data available is “statistically so uncertain as to be meaningless”.

Others disagree. Dr. Vincent Gray, a New Zealand based climatologist and expert reviewer for the IPCC, believes that the accelerated trends seen earlier were simply an artifact of poor measurements. “The satellite system has undoubtedly shown a rise since 1992, but it has leveled off”, he tells DailyTech. “They had some bad calibration errors at the beginning.” Gray points to a study done by Flanders University using tide gauges which, he says, measured no perceptible increase in sea level over its entire 15 year period.

Sea level has been rising since the end of the last ice age, some 20,000 years ago. During an episode known as “Meltwater Pulse 1A”, the world’s oceans rose by more than 5 meters per century, a rate about 20 times faster than the current increase. TOPEX/Poseidon was launched by NASA in 1992, and collected data until 2005. In 2001, NASA and France’s Centre National d’�tudes Spatiales (CNES) launched its follow-up mission, Jason-1. Jason-2 was launched in June of this year. Read more here.

HOW IPCC SPINS THE CLIMATE November 17, 2008

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Dr Vincent Gray

Dr Vincent Gray

HOW IPCC SPINS THE CLIMATE

From NZ Climate Science

Perennial expert reviewer of IPCC Assessment Reports, Dr Vincent Gray has updated his paper on how UN IPCC spins the climate.  To download pdf:  LINK

Dr. Vincent Gray is a New Zealand-based climate scientist and an official expert reviewer of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scientific reports. Dr. Gray has a Ph.D. in Physical Chemistry from Cambridge University, England and has had a long career as a research scientist in Britain, France, Canada, New Zealand and China. Dr. Gray has published over 100 scientific papers on energy and materials, plus a dozen in climate science.

DR VINCENT GRAY UPDATES ‘GLOBAL WARMING SCAM’ PAPER October 28, 2008

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DR VINCENT GRAY UPDATES ‘GLOBAL WARMING SCAM’ PAPER

Dr Vincent Gray

Dr Vincent Gray

From the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition

Dr Vincent Gray, expert reviewer of IPCC Assessment Reports since their inception, has up-dated his extensive paper, “The Global Warming Scam”, in which he shows that none of the evidence presented by IPCC confirms a relationship between emissions of greenhouse gases and any harmful effect on the climate. 
LINK
to download pdf.