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Cooler Year on a Cooling Planet December 18, 2008

Posted by honestclimate in Global Cooling.
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Cooler Year on a Cooling Planet

Dr. Don Easterbrook

Dr. Don Easterbrook

By Dr. Don Easterbrook

In a story on the New York Times, Andy Revkin used Hansen’s global temperature plot to blog “Cooler Year on a Warming Planet”.

A better title would have been “A cooler year on a cooling planet.” The Pacific Decadal Oscillation switched from its warm mode (1977-1998) to its cool mode in 1999 and we’ve had global cooling since. Each time this has happened in the past 100 years we�ve had three decades of cool global climate. We switched from the Pacific cool mode to the warm mode in 1977 (The Great Climate Shift) and that ended in 1998 with the switch to the Pacific cool mode. We’re going to have three decades of global cooling, just like we�ve always had when this happens. CO2 has nothing to do with it.

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See larger image here.

We’ve been doing this for hundreds of years, long before atmosphere CO2 increased from human emissions. The isotope record from the Greenland ice core (see below) confirms the 25-30 years oscillating pattern between warm and cool. We are right on schedule for 30 years of global cooling.

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See larger image here.

Download pdf of this post here.

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Global Cooling is Here! Evidence for Predicting Global Cooling for the Next Three Decades October 31, 2008

Posted by honestclimate in Global Cooling.
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Global Cooling is Here!  Evidence for Predicting Global Cooling for the Next Three Decades

Dr. Don Easterbrook

Dr. Don Easterbrook

Via ICECAP, October 30, 2008

By Professor Don Easterbrook, Western Washington University

In 2007-2008, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) and computer modelers who believe that CO2 is the cause of global warming still predict the Earth is in store for catastrophic warming in this century.  IPCC computer models have predicted global warming of 1F per decade and 5-6C (10-11F) by 2100, which would cause global catastrophe with ramifications for human life, natural habitat, energy and water resources, and food production. All of this is predicated on the assumption that global warming is caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 and that CO2 will continue to rise rapidly.

However, records of past climate changes suggest an altogether different scenario for the 21st century.  Rather than drastic global warming at a rate of 0.5C (1F) per decade, historic records of past natural cycles suggest global cooling for the first several decades of the 21st century to about 2030, followed by global warming from about 2030 to about 2060, and renewed global cooling from 2060 to 2090 (Easterbrook, D.J., 2005, 2006a, b, 2007, 2008a, b); Easterbrook and Kovanen, 2000, 2001).  Climatic fuctuations over the past several hundred years suggest ~30 year climatic cycles of global warming and cooling, on a general rising trend from the Little Ice Age.

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Now a decade later, the global climate has not warmed 1F as forecast by the IPCC but has cooled slightly until 2007-08 when global temperatures turned sharply downward.  In 2008, NASA satellite imagery confirmed that the Pacific Ocean had switched from the warm mode it had been in since 1977 to its cool mode, similar to that of the 1945-1977 global cooling period. The shift strongly suggests that the next several decades will be cooler, not warmer as predicted by the IPCC.

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Global temperature projection for the coming century, based on warming/cooling cycles of the past several centuries.  ‘A’ projection based on assuming next cool phase will be similar to the 1945-1977 cool phase.  ‘B’ projection based on assuming next cool phase will be similar to the 1880-1915 cool phase.  The predicted warm cycle from 2030 to 2060 is based on projection of the 1977 to 1998 warm phase and the cooling phase from 2060 to 2090 is based on projection of the 1945 to 1977 cool cycle. See larger image here

Global warming (i.e, the warming since 1977) is over.  The minute increase of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere (0.008%) was not the cause of the warming- it was a continuation of natural cycles that occurred over the past 500 years.

The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually assuring us of about 30 years of global cooling, perhaps much deeper than the global cooling from about 1945 to 1977.  Just how much cooler the global climate will be during this cool cycle is uncertain.  Recent solar changes suggest that it could be fairly severe, perhaps more like the 1880 to 1915 cool cycle than the more moderate 1945-1977 cool cycle.  A more drastic cooling, similar to that during the Dalton and Maunder minimums, could plunge the Earth into another Little Ice Age, but only time will tell if that is likely.  Read more here.

Implications of PDO and NAO Shifts and Global Climate in Upcoming Decades October 8, 2008

Posted by honestclimate in Global Cooling.
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Implications of PDO and NAO Shifts and Global Climate in Upcoming Decades

Dr. Don Easterbrook

Dr. Don Easterbrook

By Dr. Don Easterbrook

From ICECAP, October 7, 2008

In a Geological Society of America abstract, Dr. Don Easterbrook, Professor of Geology at Western Washington University, presents data showing that the global warming cycle from 1977 to 1998 is now over and we have entered into a new global cooling period that should last for the next three decades. He also suggests that since the IPCC climate models are now so far off from what is actually happening that their projections for both this decade and century must be considered highly unreliable.

The Pacific Ocean has a warm temperature mode and a cool temperature mode and in the past century has switched back forth between these two modes every 25-30 years (known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO). In 1977 the Pacific abruptly shifted from its cool mode (where it had been since about 1945) into its warm mode, and this initiated global warming from 1977 to 1998. The correlation between the PDO and global climate is well established. The announcement by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) had shifted to its cool phase is right on schedule as predicted by past climate and PDO changes (Easterbrook, 2001, 2006, 2007). The PDO typically lasts 25-30 years and assures North America of cool, wetter climates during its cool phases and warmer, drier climates during its warm phases. The establishment of the cool PDO, together with similar cooling of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), virtually assures several decades of global cooling and the end of the past 30-year warm phase. It also means that the IPCC predictions of catastrophic global warming this century were highly inaccurate.

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As shown by the historic pattern of PDOs over the past century and by corresponding global warming and cooling, the pattern is part of ongoing warm/cool cycles that last 25-30 years. The global cooling phase from 1880 to 1910, characterized by advance of glaciers worldwide, was followed by a shift to the warm-phase PDO for 30 years, global warming and rapid glacier recession. The cool-phase PDO returned in ~1945 accompanied by global cooling and glacial advance for 30 years. Shift to the warm-phase PDO in 1977 initiated global warming and recession of glaciers that persisted until 1998. Recent establishment of the PDO cool phase appeared right on target and assuming that its effect will be similar to past history, global climates can be expected to cool over the next 25-30 years. The IPCC prediction of global temperatures 1 F warmer by 2011 and 2 F by 2038 stand little chance of being correct.

The global warming of this century is exactly in phase with the normal climatic pattern of cyclic warming and cooling and we have now switched from a warm phase to a cool phase right at the predicted time (see graph below).

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See larger image here

Click below link for Dr Easterbrook’s paper

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/GSA.pdf