jump to navigation

Watts Up with the Climate? Australian Tour June 5, 2010

Posted by honestclimate in Discussions.
Tags: , , , ,
add a comment

Watts Up with the Climate? Australian Tour

Via Climate Sceptics

Anthony Watts, David Archibald and David Stockwell are touring Australia 12 June – 1 July 2010.

Sydney NSW
Townsville QLD
Brisbane QLD
Gold Coast QLD
Newcastle NSW
Noosa QLD
Emerald QLD
Melbourne VIC
Hobart TAS
Adelaide SA
Mount Gambier SA
Hamilton VIC
Ballarat VIC
Narrogin WA
Perth WA
Canberra ACT
Wagga Wagga NSW
Coffs Harbour NSW

For full tour schedule details click HERE

Advertisements

Dalton Minimum Repeat goes mainstream February 16, 2010

Posted by honestclimate in sunspots.
Tags: , , ,
1 comment so far

Dalton Minimum Repeat goes mainstream

From Watts Up With That, February 15, 2010

David Archibald writes in an email to WUWT:

The AGU Fall meeting has a session entitled “Aspects and consequences of an unusually deep and long solar minimum”.  Two hours of video of this session can be accessed: http://eventcg.com/clients/agu/fm09/U34A.html

Two of the papers presented had interesting observations with implications for climate.  First of all Solanki came to the conclusion that the Sun is leaving its fifty to sixty year long grand maximum of the second half of the 20th century.  He had said previously that the Sun was more active in the second half of the 20th century than in the previous 8,000 years.  This is his last slide:

Read the rest here

David Archibald on – The State of the Sun – 16th June, 2009 June 20, 2009

Posted by honestclimate in sunspots.
Tags: , , , , ,
2 comments

David Archibald on – The State of the Sun – 16th June, 2009

June 16th, 2009 by Warwick Hughes

The Ap Index is heading down sharply.
Ap time series
The F10.7 flux is flatlining. Note that the volatility has gone out of it
F10.7 flux
The rate of decline of the heliospheric current sheet suggests that the month of solar minimum may be still a year off.
heliospheric current sheet  time series
Like the Ap Index, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field recently headed down sharply.
Interplanetary Magnetic Field
The Oulu neutron count is trending up steeply. If the month of solar minimum is still a year off, the neutron count can be expected to continue rising for another two years.
Oulu neutron count
Solar wind flow pressure is going to new lows.
Solar wind flow pressure
Summary
The Sun has gone very quiet and several indicators of activity are still heading down. Solar Cycle 23 may end up being 14 years long. Solar activity modelling that I have recently become aware of suggests that the Sun will have very low activity until 2016.

Our Current Minimum is More Maunder than Dalton May 9, 2009

Posted by honestclimate in sunspots.
Tags: , , , , ,
2 comments

Our Current Minimum is More Maunder than Dalton

From Watts Up With That, May 8, 2009

Guest Post by David Archibald

This is a plot of three year windows on the Maunder and Dalton Minimum and the current minimum:

Maunder-Dalton1

What it is showing is how the start of the current minimum compares with the starts of the Maunder and Dalton Minima.  The solar cycle minimum at the start of the Dalton was a lot more active than the current one.  If you consider that very small spots are being counted now, the activities are very similar.  This is how they look without the Dalton:

Maunder-Dalton2

If you consider the [current sunspot] counting problem, they are actually a pretty good match.

David Archibald

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/08/more-maunder-than-dalton

Prediction of the May 2009 UAH MSU Global Temperature Result January 18, 2009

Posted by honestclimate in Temperature.
Tags: , ,
13 comments

Prediction of the May 2009 UAH MSU Global Temperature Result

From ICECAP

Dr David Archibald

Dr David Archibald

There are now 30 years of satellite data on global temperature. The graph below shows the University of Alabama Huntsville Microwave Sounding Unit (UAH MSU) results for the period 1978 to 2008.

image
See larger image here.

Examination of the record shows a change in character in 2001. Prior to that year, global temperatures tended to rise in a narrow band for a couple of years then have a relatively rapid fall. After 2001, temperatures tended to peak in January and then have a much wider annual range than previously. This is shown in the following graph:

image
See larger image here.

The above graph overlays the month to month results for the period 2002 to 2008, a total of seven years. The larger blue line is the average. For the last seven years, global temperature has tended to fall 0.3 of a degree between January and May, and then rise again to December. Departures from this are caused by El Nino and La Nina events. Just as the 2007 El Nino added 0.2C to the January 2007 result, the 2008 La Nina reduced temperatures in the first half of 2008 by 0.3C. The following figure shows the strength of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) which drives the formation of El Nino and La Nina events.

image
See larger image here.

Another large La Nina formed in late 2008. The combination of the annual pattern of temperature change and the current La Nina enables a short term forecast of the UAH MSU result to be made. The combination of a 0.3c response to the current La Nina and the usual 0.3C decline from January to May will result in a 0.6C decline to May 2009 to a result of -0.4C (0.4C below the long term average). See PDF here.

Let’s see if David can do better than the UKMO has done in recent years. UKMO is already talking a top 5 warmest 2009.

David Archibald’s elegant illustration of how late and weak solar cycle 24 is proving October 13, 2008

Posted by honestclimate in Global Cooling.
Tags: , , , ,
1 comment so far
Dr David Archibald

Dr David Archibald

David Archibald’s elegant illustration of how late and weak solar cycle 24 of how late and weak solar cycle 24 is proving

From Warwick Hughes Blog, October 11, 2008

David Archibald illustration

<click on the picture for enlarged view>

There is another way of looking at solar cycles.

Solar cycles actually start with the magnetic reversal near the peak of the previous cycle. The sunspots take seven years to surface and become visible. Almost all sunspot cycles tend to be about 18.5 years long, measured from the peak of the previous cycle.

The above graph compares the average of three cycles, 21 to 23, from the late 20th century with three, 14 to 16, from the late 19th century (which had much colder weather). Also included is Solar Cycle 5, the first half of the Dalton Minimum.

Given we are now 103 months from the peak of Solar Cycle 23, it is now too late to get a late 19th century-type outcome for Solar Cycle 24. Out of the 24 named solar cycles, Solar Cycle 24 is now the latest after Solar Cycle 5.

It is so late that it is now in no man’s land and its weakness is now more of a consideration than lateness in itself.

It is certain that we will be getting a Dalton Minimum-type experience.
David Archibald

http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=177

The Past and Future of Climate October 6, 2008

Posted by honestclimate in Global Cooling, Temperature.
Tags: , , , , , , ,
add a comment
Dr David Archibald

Dr David Archibald

The Past and Future of Climate

A prediction of imminent cooling.

By Dr David Archibald

From ICECAP

David Archibald is a scientist operating in the fields of cancer research, climate science, and oil exploration. In the cancer field, trials on a formulation he invented with professors from Purdue University, Indiana are currently underway at Queensland University. In oil exploration, he is operator of a number of exploration permits in the Canning Basin, Western Australia.

Click the below link for Dr Archibald’s paper via ICECAP.

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/The_Past_and_Future_of_Climate_Change.pdf