Posted by honestclimate in sunspots.
Tags: climate change, david archibald, global warming, sunspots
Dalton Minimum Repeat goes mainstream
From Watts Up With That, February 15, 2010
David Archibald writes in an email to WUWT:
The AGU Fall meeting has a session entitled “Aspects and consequences of an unusually deep and long solar minimum”. Two hours of video of this session can be accessed: http://eventcg.com/clients/agu/fm09/U34A.html
Two of the papers presented had interesting observations with implications for climate. First of all Solanki came to the conclusion that the Sun is leaving its fifty to sixty year long grand maximum of the second half of the 20th century. He had said previously that the Sun was more active in the second half of the 20th century than in the previous 8,000 years. This is his last slide:
Read the rest here
Posted by honestclimate in sunspots.
Tags: climate change, Dalton Minimum, david archibald, global warming, Maunder Minimum, sunspots
Our Current Minimum is More Maunder than Dalton
From Watts Up With That, May 8, 2009
Guest Post by David Archibald
This is a plot of three year windows on the Maunder and Dalton Minimum and the current minimum:
What it is showing is how the start of the current minimum compares with the starts of the Maunder and Dalton Minima. The solar cycle minimum at the start of the Dalton was a lot more active than the current one. If you consider that very small spots are being counted now, the activities are very similar. This is how they look without the Dalton:
If you consider the [current sunspot] counting problem, they are actually a pretty good match.
David Archibald
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/08/more-maunder-than-dalton
Posted by honestclimate in Temperature.
Tags: climate change, david archibald, global warming
Prediction of the May 2009 UAH MSU Global Temperature Result
From ICECAP
Dr David Archibald
There are now 30 years of satellite data on global temperature. The graph below shows the University of Alabama Huntsville Microwave Sounding Unit (UAH MSU) results for the period 1978 to 2008.
See larger image here.
Examination of the record shows a change in character in 2001. Prior to that year, global temperatures tended to rise in a narrow band for a couple of years then have a relatively rapid fall. After 2001, temperatures tended to peak in January and then have a much wider annual range than previously. This is shown in the following graph:
See larger image here.
The above graph overlays the month to month results for the period 2002 to 2008, a total of seven years. The larger blue line is the average. For the last seven years, global temperature has tended to fall 0.3 of a degree between January and May, and then rise again to December. Departures from this are caused by El Nino and La Nina events. Just as the 2007 El Nino added 0.2C to the January 2007 result, the 2008 La Nina reduced temperatures in the first half of 2008 by 0.3C. The following figure shows the strength of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) which drives the formation of El Nino and La Nina events.
See larger image here.
Another large La Nina formed in late 2008. The combination of the annual pattern of temperature change and the current La Nina enables a short term forecast of the UAH MSU result to be made. The combination of a 0.3c response to the current La Nina and the usual 0.3C decline from January to May will result in a 0.6C decline to May 2009 to a result of -0.4C (0.4C below the long term average). See PDF here.
Let’s see if David can do better than the UKMO has done in recent years. UKMO is already talking a top 5 warmest 2009.
Posted by honestclimate in Global Cooling.
Tags: climate change, david archibald, Global Cooling, global warming, sunspots
Dr David Archibald
David Archibald’s elegant illustration of how late and weak solar cycle 24 of how late and weak solar cycle 24 is proving
From Warwick Hughes Blog, October 11, 2008
<click on the picture for enlarged view>
There is another way of looking at solar cycles.
Solar cycles actually start with the magnetic reversal near the peak of the previous cycle. The sunspots take seven years to surface and become visible. Almost all sunspot cycles tend to be about 18.5 years long, measured from the peak of the previous cycle.
The above graph compares the average of three cycles, 21 to 23, from the late 20th century with three, 14 to 16, from the late 19th century (which had much colder weather). Also included is Solar Cycle 5, the first half of the Dalton Minimum.
Given we are now 103 months from the peak of Solar Cycle 23, it is now too late to get a late 19th century-type outcome for Solar Cycle 24. Out of the 24 named solar cycles, Solar Cycle 24 is now the latest after Solar Cycle 5.
It is so late that it is now in no man’s land and its weakness is now more of a consideration than lateness in itself.
It is certain that we will be getting a Dalton Minimum-type experience.
David Archibald
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=177
Posted by honestclimate in Global Cooling, Temperature.
Tags: climate change, david archibald, Global Cooling, global warming, solar, sun, sunspots, Temperature
Dr David Archibald
The Past and Future of Climate
A prediction of imminent cooling.
By Dr David Archibald
From ICECAP
David Archibald is a scientist operating in the fields of cancer research, climate science, and oil exploration. In the cancer field, trials on a formulation he invented with professors from Purdue University, Indiana are currently underway at Queensland University. In oil exploration, he is operator of a number of exploration permits in the Canning Basin, Western Australia.
Click the below link for Dr Archibald’s paper via ICECAP.
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/The_Past_and_Future_of_Climate_Change.pdf
