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South East Australian heatwave in January 2009 is not detectable in “global warming” data March 5, 2009

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South East Australian heatwave in January 2009 is not detectable in “global warming” data

March 4th, 2009 by Warwick Hughes

Increasingly, we are hearing in the media that the January-February south east Australian heatwave and disastrous bushfires in Victoria that have killed over 200 people are the result of climate change or global warming.

This map shows the 10 degree grid cell that the temperature data graphs below is collected from.

SE Australia grid cells

Here is what the local region component of global temperature data speaks to us about January 2009 vs long term trends for South East Australia. These graphics of monthly temperature anomalies from land stations demonstrate that FROM 1880 THERE IS NO WARMING IN SOUTH EAST AUSTRALIA. February data is not yet in but can be added later.

The first graphic is from the UK Met Office – Hadley Centre, their latest CRUTEM3 global land data which has evolved from the datsets of P.D. Jones et al of the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the University of Norwich. These data show a very slight and statistically insignificant warming of 0.03 degrees from 1880 to Jan 2009.

Note the pre 1880 data is riddled with gaps.

CRUTEM3 trend 1880-2009 SE Australia

The second graphic is generated by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) lead by the well known greenhouse warming proponent, Dr. James Hansen.

GISS monthly anomalies shows that SE Australia between 140-150E and 30-40S has a miniscule cooling trend over the 1549 months from Jan 1880 to Jan 2009 which would not be statistically significant from zero.

GISS temperature trend SE Australia 1880-2009

Both sets of data are made available through the The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute who have a web site KNMI Climate Explorer, where it is possible to download a huge range of global climate data.

First let us be clear that “global warming” is measured by monthly mean temperature anomalies, so if a signature can not be seen in that context, then the case for a link between heatwaves – bushfires – global warming, is just arm-waving speculation.

Mean temperature = the average of night and day.

Blaming the 2009 Victorian bushfires on climate change or global warming is likely to become one of those “self evident truths” that our Governments and green media love so much.

It is interesting to remember what the “official” data show and that is that although there have been periods of both warming and cooling over south east Australia for 129 years, these cancel out and there is no overall trend.



Greens add fuel to the fires. Literally February 23, 2009

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Greens add fuel to the fires. Literally

By Andrew Bolt, HeraldSun, February 23, 2009

Greens didn’t just stop the fuel reduction that would have made the Black Saturday bushfires less intense.

Greens literally added fuel to the fires by planting “carbon offset’’ forests – which have now burned, adding the carbon dioxide emissions they were meant to remove:

Greenfleet will assess the impact of these fires on our forests over the coming weeks, with a view to replant if necessary or monitor recovery in areas where the impact was less severe.

Greenfleet plants the trees that allegedly offset the emissions from the Victorian Labor Government’s car fleet.

Now Treesmart’s Thornton forest may also be in danger, to judge from the CFA’s latest alert. And only a miracle has saved Climate Positive’s plantation:

The Balook planting was under imminent threat throughout Saturday 7 February. The fire started in Churchill, just 30kms to the north. Strong northerly winds pushed it right up to the site and 20kms beyond it until the winds shifted. Miraculously, the planting site was unaffected, as was the entirety of the Trust for Nature property.

But Climate Positive’s other big planting isn’t doing much for offsetting:

The Bush Family Reserve, located on the Perry River, while heavily affected by continuing severe drought, is safe from fire.

The AGW believers at Cities of Theory predicted this danger two years ago:

It can be expected that over the next ten to thirty years, many of the areas where trees for carbon sequestration will be planted will be in increasingly hotter and drier areas, subject to more intense and frequent bushfires. Are the resulting risks to the safety of rural communities acceptable?