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Divergence Between GISS and UAH since 1980 January 17, 2009

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Divergence Between GISS and UAH since 1980

From Watts Up with That, January 17, 2009

Guest post by Steven Goddard

The GISS website shows the graph below, which indicates a steady, steep warming trend over the last 30 years.  The monthly average anomaly for 2008 (0.44) is 0.26 degrees warmer than the monthly average anomaly for 1980 (0.18.)  Data obtained from here: http://www.woodfortrees.org/data/gistemp/from:1980/plot/uah/from:1980

By contrast, the UAH monthly average anomaly for 2008 (0.05) is 0.04 degrees cooler than the UAH monthly average anomaly for 1980 (0.09.)  Again, data obtained from here: http://www.woodfortrees.org/data/uah/from:1980

This 1980-2008 discrepancy between GISS and UAH is important, as it is nearly equal to the claimed warming trend since 1980.

Taking this one step further, I made a graph of the difference between the GISS and UAH monthly anomalies since 1980.
As you can see below, the discrepancy has increased over time.  Using Google’s linest() function, the divergence between GISS and UAH is increasing at a rate of 0.32C/century.  (GISS uses a different baseline than UAH, but the slope of the difference should be zero, if the data sets correlated properly.)  The slope is not zero, which indicates an inconsistency between the data sets.

Read the rest, click here

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HadCrut3 Temperature Anomalies for November 2008 December 13, 2008

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HadCrut3 Temperature Anomalies for November 2008

By the blogowner, honestclimate, December 14, 2008


The chart represents the data plotted from Jan 2008 – Nov 2008. For the full dataset going back monthly to the year 1850, click below link for the raw data.

For the HadCrut3 source data click here:
For a description of the HadCrut3 data file columns click here:

‘Airport Malaria’ Risk Rising With Global Warming December 12, 2008

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‘Airport Malaria’ Risk Rising With Global Warming

Oh dear, here we go again with another scare story, beware the killer mosquitoes…however, I wouldn’t lose too much sleep over it since the globe is no warmer today than it was in 1998.

From Yahoo News, December 12, 2008

FRIDAY, Dec. 12 (HealthDay News) — Global warming is raising the risk for infection with so-called “airport malaria in malaria-free zones of the United States and Europe, researchers warn.

Here’s how it happens, as the scientists explain it: Mosquitoes make their way on to planes in tropical regions, and at the end of a flight can escape into the increasingly warmer climates of developed countries, where they now have a better chance of surviving and proliferating.

Source

Just what are falling temperatures evidence of? December 11, 2008

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Just what are falling temperatures evidence of?

By William M Briggs, December 8, 2008

If increasing temperatures are consistent with or are evidence of global warming, what theory is consistent with or evidence of falling temperatures? Global warming, too?

We have to ask this complicated question because it was just reported that this year’s global average temperature is on track to be the coldest in the last eight years. In other words, the temperature has dropped, and has been dropping for a couple of years.

So, do these falling temperatures mean that global warming has stopped or is false?

“Absolutely not,” said Dr Peter Stott, the manager of understanding and attributing climate change at the Met Office’s Hadley Centre.

We also hear from “a team of climate scientists at Kiel University” who

predicted that natural variation would mask the 0.3C warming predicted by the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change over the next decade. They said that global temperatures would remain constant until 2015 but would then begin to accelerate.

This is going to be complicated, and there are not many ways to make this topic easy to understand, so hold on.

We have to explore what it means for evidence to be “consistent with” of “inconsistent with” a theory, what it means for a theory to be wrong or right, and what it means to be probably right or probably wrong.

Consistency

Suppose, then, that the theory of anthropogenic global warming claims, among other things, that the temperature will certainly rise year by year. The temperature did not rise and in fact fell. This evidence is inconsistent with the theory and so the theory is false because it made a prediction that said that falling temperatures were impossible. If you like, we can say that this theory has been falsified (Popper’s term of very little utility; a topic to explore in full another day).

Read the rest here


Al Gore / AIT Index currently at -.22° F./-.122° C. since An Inconvenient Truth was released December 8, 2008

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Al Gore / AIT Index currently at -.22° F./-.122° C. since An Inconvenient Truth was released

From the Gore Lied Blogspot, December 8, 2008


The November data UAH Globally Averaged Satellite-Based Temperature of the Lower Atmosphere has just been released by Dr. Roy Spencer. As it does each month, the GORE LIED graphics department has marked up Dr. Spencer’s graph to graphically illustrate Al Gore’s inconvenient truth, also known as The Gore Effect.

The Al Gore / AIT Index is currently at -.22° F. (-.122° C.). That is to say that since Al Gore released his science fiction movie, An Inconventient Truth, the globally averaged temperatures have dropped .22° F.

It is worth pointing out that the Index looked much worse for Al Gore back in May when the UAH graph showed it’s lowest temperature in at least eight years. Since May, the temperatures have been slowly ticking up, but are still lower than when Al Gore released An Inconvenient Truth, which just underscores the decline (or flattening off) of the globabally averaged temperatures in the past ten years. Even with a six month increase in temperatures Al Gore is still in negative territory.

Also, as of this month the UAH now has thirty years of data (HT: Wood for Trees) .

http://gorelied.blogspot.com/2008/12/al-gore-ait-index-currently-at-22-f-122.html

La Niña is back December 5, 2008

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La Niña is back

From Watts Up with That?, December 4, 2008

Image from NOAA, dated 12/04/08 – click for larger image h/t to Fernando

It will be interesting to see what November UAH and RSS satellite data brings forth.

La Niñas occurred in 1904, 1908, 1910, 1916, 1924, 1928, 1938, 1950, 1955, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1988, 1995, and in 2007. It looks as if that 2007 event is hanging on.

Here are some FAQs on the subject:

Typically, a La Niña is preceded by a buildup of cooler-than-normal subsurface waters in the tropical Pacific. Eastward-moving atmospheric and oceanic waves help bring the cold water to the surface through a complex series of events still being studied. In time, the easterly trade winds strengthen, cold upwelling off Peru and Ecuador intensifies, and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) drop below normal. During the 1988- 89 La Niña, SSTs fell to as much as 4 degrees C (7 degrees F) below normal. Both La Niña and El Niño tend to peak during the Northern Hemisphere winter.

What’s the difference between La Niña and El Niño?*
Both terms refer to large-scale changes in sea-surface temperature across the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Usually, sea-surface readings off South America’s west coast range from the 60s to 70s F, while they exceed 80 degrees F in the “warm pool” located in the central and western Pacific. This warm pool expands to cover the tropics during El Niño but shrinks to the west during La Niña. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the coupled ocean-atmosphere process that includes both El Niño and La Niña.

What are the global impacts of La Niña?
Both El Niño and La Niña impact global and U.S. climate patterns. In many locations, especially in the tropics, La Niña (or cold episodes) produces the opposite climate variations from El Niño. For instance, parts of Australia and Indonesia are prone to drought during El Niño, but are typically wetter than normal during La Niña.

What are the U.S. impacts of La Niña?
La Niña often features drier than normal conditions in the Southwest in late summer through the subsequent winter. Drier than normal conditions also typically occur in the Central Plains in the fall and in the Southeast in the winter. In contrast, the Pacific Northwest is more likely to be wetter than normal in the late fall and early winter with the presence of a well-established La Niña. Additionally, on average La Niña winters are warmer than normal in the Southeast and colder than normal in the Northwest.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/04/la-nina-is-back

And our #1 priority is to try to make it a fraction of a degree COLDER outside? December 4, 2008

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And our #1 priority is to try to make it a fraction of a degree COLDER outside?

From the Tom Nelson Blog, December 3, 2008

More blizzards on the way as ice and snow send casualty figures soaring – Scotsman.com News

NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde said five of its A&E departments had recorded their busiest ever day on Tuesday as the cold snap took hold.

The health board said 1,906 emergency patients were seen – a 20 per cent rise on the previous highest recorded figure of 1,583.

The average number of A&E patients seen in the area per day is 1,226 – Tuesday’s level was 55 per cent above this. Glasgow’s Victoria Infirmary treated more than 300 patients, a 40 per cent increase over its normal attendance.

The board also said Tuesday was the busiest day for surgical emergency admissions since regular reporting began, many due to slips, trips and falls.

There were 135 emergency surgical admissions at the five Glasgow sites alone – a 75 per cent increase on the daily average of 77.

Dr Alistair Ireland, clinical director for the health board’s accident and emergency services, appealed for people to take extra care. He added: “The vast majority of injuries we saw yesterday were broken wrists, ankles, elbows and legs.

“However, there were some serious consequences and we have two patients in with serious head injuries. Car accidents caused by the icy conditions have also brought a big rise in A&E patient numbers.”

Heavy snow and high winds forecast to cause travel chaos | UK news | The Guardian

Hundreds of traffic accidents have already been reported in Scotland during the cold snap.

http://tomnelson.blogspot.com/2008/12/and-our-1-priority-is-to-try-to-make-it.html

2008 – A TIPPING POINT? December 4, 2008

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2008 – A TIPPING POINT?

From Greenie Watch, December 2, 2008

An email from David Whitehouse

In a few weeks the data will be in on the global average temperature for 2008. Although one should always be wary about assumptions regarding data (the December data hasn1t been measured yet) it does seem highly likely that 2008 will continue the trend seen in recent years (since 2001) of no increase in global temperatures. In most people’s minds the question is how much cooler it will turn out to be than previous years. Personally, I expect the errors will make it unlikely that anything other than a flat line will be justifiable, but I may be wrong.

Given this, the spin regarding these figures has already begun presumably intended to avoid any misinterpretation by so-called climate skeptics and the media. This is what I expect.

In January’s press releases about the data it will no doubt be emphasised that as 2008 was in the top ten or fifteen warmest years since records began it shows that global warming is still taking place. Take a look at the UK Met Office ‘Fact 2’ in their section on their website on climate change myths. It says that despite the static trend the public are not to be confused as global warming is continuing, as the last decade is warmer than the pervious one. Therefore the long-term trend is for rising temperatures. This is a misleading approach to the data ignoring parts of the data that are in some people1s view problematic (it is the same approach as adopted by the IPCC). True, the last decade is warmer than the previous one, nobody is seriously disputing that, but the important question is has it got any warmer in the past decade. The answer to that direct question is obviously that the data says no, it hasn’t.

But does it matter? Is the fact that the world hasn1t got any warmer since 1998 and has had an impeccably constant temperature since 2001 of any significance? This period has been called a ‘short interval’ and the lack of change merely ‘year on year variability.’ Frankly, this analysis is wearing thin. It is beginning to strain credibility to ascribe 2008 to yet another example of unchanging ‘year on year variability.’

The recent warming trend began in 1980 and continued to 1998. During that time there was a general temperature increase modified by the Pinatubo and El Chichon volcanic eruptions and the 1998 strong El Nino. Without the 1998 El Nino the increase would not have been so great, shown by the fact that when it subsided the temperature declined and did not continue to increase.

Since 1998 there were two cooler years then a slight increase and since 2001 there has been no increase, the difference between years being much smaller than the error of measurement. Another important point is that since 1998 there has been no volcanic effect. It is the effect of Pinatubo and El Chicon, coupled with a selective choice of time intervals, that can falsely give the impression through the judicious use of ‘trend lines’ that there were periods of standstill and temperature decline between 1980 and 1998 and that therefore the post 2001 standstill is nothing unusual.

It is now obvious that the recent global warming period has two components – a rise between 1980 and 1997-8 and a subsequent standstill.

It has been said that this was not unexpected and that nobody ever said there would be an ever increasing rise in temperature even as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration increased. Ups and down were always part of the picture. Well, just look at the IPCC reports and find where they said that? Until mid 2007 many scientists refused to even countenance the idea that there could possibly be a standstill.

That has now changed. Nobody can ignore this data any more. If nothing else the important paper in Nature earlier this year by Keenlyside et al showed that the change in the data required an explanation which they suggested was due to ocean turnover. Despite this some scientists savagely attacked the Keenlyside paper showing that there is no scientific consensus about global warming data.

One should also raise the important point that if the observed period of global warming was, as is claimed by some, so unusual and strong then why have natural processes been able to counteract it so effectively. I thought the whole point was that man’s effects were greater than that produced by natural processes!

One should also ask why the annual global temperature has remained constant when the CO2 concentration is going ever upward. The effect of increasing CO2, according to the greenhouse hypothesis, is to provide a ‘force’ that drives temperature up. For each year that the temperature remains constant and the CO2 increases the greater is that force. This implies that whatever is keeping the earth at a constant temperature is increasing its effectiveness in step with increasing CO2 and having to produce more and more cooling each year to maintain a constant temperature. This is a highly unphysical and contrived situation.

In climate terms ten years is long enough to get an indication of what is going on and to smooth out any yearly variability. One should not read too much into it but the data is not meaningless and should not be ignored or dismissed as statistical fluctuation. Remember that when James Hansen testified in front of the US Government about the perils of global warming he did so in 1988 with less than a decade of credible warming data to back up his views. If one was generous with an interpretation of his analysis of the available scientific data of the time one would say he was acting in precautionary mode. But what is the difference in terms of science and philosophy from using less than a decade of warming data to say ‘look there might be something going on here’ from looking at a longer period of no increase of global average temperatures and saying ‘look there may be something going on here.’

Also, I wonder if is too much to hope for a more good natured and scientifically informed debate about these figures and not have accusations of lying and spreading disinformation on behalf of big oil and conservative think tanks. This is a clich‚, unscientific, inaccurate and increasingly missing the point as more and more reputable scientists ask serious questions about what is going on. To respond to such scientific enquiry with snide innuendo and implied associations is to spread disinformation. Next time someone insists there is no problem with the global warming data and attacks the credibility of those who ask a perfectly reasonable scientific question, ask yourself where their beliefs come from? Perhaps they make a living writing unbalanced books and op eds about the impending catastrophe, or make a living studying it, and therefore have a vested interest. Worse, perhaps they believe that unscientific extremism is justified to get the public’s attention.

The graphs we will see in January about the 2008 data and the 1980 – 2008 warming period will no doubt have their x-axis squashed so that the past ten years are not easily discernable. The temperature axis will be expansive and one-sigma error bars will be used. If the data were published with two-sigma bars and just for the past 50 years then they would give an entirely different impression.

But don’t worry. It will all pick up in 2009. The UK Met office has said that global warming will begin in earnest in 2009 because by that time greenhouse emissions will overtake natural climate variability!

So that’s the world we live in, spin and disinformation by vested interests who find real world data inconvenient – data deniers. The world is warmer than in previous decades but is, for the moment at least, not getting warmer, despite as one scientist from the Tyndall Centre said ‘since 2000 the world has gone ballistic in terms of carbon emissions.’ Global warming is coming, next year, or in a decade or so after understandable global cooling. If temperature increases it is global warming, if it does otherwise it is climate change.

Leave the models to one side for a moment and ponder that the only way to prove the global warming hypothesis is wrong is if the temperatures doesn’t rise as the CO2 does. If that happened what will real world data look like?

Raining on bureau’s parade December 3, 2008

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Raining on bureau’s parade

From the Andrew Bolt Blog, December 3, 2008

The Bureau of Meteorology (Australia) admits:

In marked contrast with recent months, November was a wet month through most of Australia. Averaged over the continent it was the eighth-wettest November on record, with only a few areas significantly below normal. The wet conditions were also reflected in the temperatures, with daytime maximum temperatures below normal, and overnight minimum temperatures above normal, over large parts of the country.

Not quite what the global-warmists of the Bureau predicted just five weeks ago:

The national outlook for temperatures over the November to January period shows a moderate to strong shift in the odds favouring warmer than normal conditions over eastern Australia. …Across the rest of the country, including WA, south western NT and western SA, the chances of a warmer than average November to January period are between 40 and 60%,

Ditto in September:

The national outlook for average December quarter (October to December) maximum temperatures shows a moderate to strong shift in the odds favouring warmer than normal conditions over much of eastern and southern Australia.

Yes, we still have December to go, but my confidence isn’t high that these same people can accurately predict warming for the next 100 years. And a wake-up, please, to those who shouted that the rains would dry up, so why build a dam?

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/raining_on_bureaus_parade

How not to measure temperature, part 78 – teach the children well November 27, 2008

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How not to measure temperature, part 78 – teach the children well

From Watts Up with That?, November 27, 2008

Title with apologies to Crosby, Stills, Nash, and Young.

In my last post, part 77 of “How not to measure temperature” I pointed out that the National Weather Service in Upton NY has a weather station that is way out of compliance due to the way it is setup and the proximity to bias factors such as the parking lot.

There are thousands of weather stations across the USA, some run by various agencies. Often we’ll see them at national parks with interpretive displays. This one I encountered in Ely Nevada on my last road trip to finish the Nevada USHCN station surveys was part of an air quality and environmental monitoring program jointly run by the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Desert Research Institute (DRI).

It is an impressive station with multiple state of the art sensors, solar power, and a datalogger with a satellite uplink to DRI’s HQ. You can look at hourly data from the station at the CEMP DRI website here.

It is located about 2 miles northeast of town on government property, BLM land:

ely_dri_closeup-510

Ely, NV Weather Station operated by DOE/DRI -click for larger image

What is unique about this station is that it has an interpretive exhibit with live data readouts. I applaud DRI/DOE for doing this. Here are what the they look like closeup:

Read the rest , click below link

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/11/27/how-not-to-measure-temperature-part-78-teach-the-children-well