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Super Strong Stratospheric Warming Event to Bring More Cold and Snow as Grand Finale to 08/09 Winter February 6, 2009

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Super Strong Stratospheric Warming Event to Bring More Cold and Snow as Grand Finale to 08/09 Winter

FROM ICECAP

Joseph D’Aleo

Joseph D’Aleo

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow

It has been a top ten coldest winters for the first two months of the year in parts of the central states. After a bit of a roller coaster ride with even a warm day or two (first in many weeks) the next week, a major stratospheric warming event that began last month will translate down to the mid and lower atmosphere with amazing high latitude blocking – high pressure. Cooling will start the end of next week and continue the rest of the month at least.

image
Larger imager here.

As cold expanding high pressure expands south into the lower 48 next week, it will suppress the jet stream and its associated still active storm track well south resulting in a MEMORABLE wintry weather period that will in the end when taken together with the cold in December and January have this winter remembered as an old-fashioned 1960s like winter. Many places deep into the south and east will see heavy snow and ice while unseasonably cold air dominates across the north.

image
Larger imager here.

In the end the CPC winter forecast from October 16 based mainly on decadal trends (thought to represent global warming) will be a decided bust. Like the stock market, technical traders will tell you, trends can take you only so far. They invariably reverse.

More cold will occur in the UK and Western Europe, where the warm winter forecast by the UKMO also never materialized.  Even the forecasters in the UK have noted some similarity to the 1960s and mentioned the early 1800s. Surprisingly that is what the low solar (sun still spotless like a Florida orange which ironically this morning are caked in ice with temperatures down into the 20s � 23 in Palmdale) suggests � a return to the early 1800s Dalton like minimum weather.

image
Larger imager here.

In the end the CPC winter forecast from October 16 based mainly on decadal trends (thought to represent global warming) will be a decided bust. Like the stock market, technical traders will tell you, trends can take you only so far. They invariably reverse.

More cold will occur in the UK and Western Europe, where the warm winter forecast by the UKMO also never materialized.  Even the forecasters in the UK have noted some similarity to the 1960s and mentioned the early 1800s. That is what the continuing extremely quiet sun (still spotless like a Florida orange which ironically this morning are caked in ice with temperatures down into the 20s, 23 in Palmdale) and an analysis of past cycles suggests a return to the early 1800s Dalton like minimum weather.

image
Larger imager here.

The last four cycles were very similar to late 1700s prior to the Dalton Minimum, which makes sense given the phasing of the 106 and 212 year minima the next few decades (Clilverd et al 2006 forecast shown).

Should Alaska’s Mt. Redoubt blow big soon, that would translate into a cooler than normal summer and another cold winter next year with more blocking like we see upcoming even if a weak El Nino developed. El Ninos do occur in cold PDO phases but are weaker and briefer thus usually colder. Than again if the sun stays quiet, La Nina may not disappear. La Ninas dominate at solar minima. See PDF here.

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Met Office Report Card at the 2/3 Mark February 2, 2009

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Met Office Report Card at the 2/3 Mark

From Watts Up With That, February 1, 2009

Guest post by Steven Goddard
https://i2.wp.com/www.mortbay.com/images/holidays/2003/SnowLondon/2003_01_08-08_46_58.jpg
The UK Met Office forecast last Autumn “the coming winter suggests it is, once again, likely to be milder than average. ”  We have now passed the 2/3 mark of the meteorological winter, and it is time for another report card to send home.  Yesterday’s press release was titled “Wintry start to February” which stated “So far, the UK winter has been the coldest for over a decade” and “Met Office forecasters expect the cold theme to the weather to continue well into next week with the chance of further snow.”
The UK is expecting the heaviest snow in about 20 years tomorrow.  Snow and freezing weather threaten to shut down Britain Arctic blizzards are set to cause a national shutdown on Monday as forecasters warn of the most widespread snowfall for almost 20 years.”Now is the time you’d expect to see the daffodils coming out but we’re not expecting them for two or three weeks at best if it warms up.
So why is this important?  Climate is not weather, after all.  The Met Office is one of the most vocal advocates of human induced global warming, and they have gotten into a consistent pattern of warm seasonal forecasts which seemingly fall in line with that belief system.  Is it possible that their forecasts are unduly influenced by preconceived notions about the climate?  It is worth remembering that London had it’s first October snow in 70 years this past autumn.
Or perhaps they know exactly what they are doing, and are just having a several year run of extremely bad luck with their long term forecasting.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/01/met-office-report-card-at-the-23-mark

CENTURY OF CHANGE January 30, 2009

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CENTURY OF CHANGE

From the Tim Blair Blog, January 30, 2009

Way, way back in time, before warmening had been invented:

In 1908 Adelaide had its hottest heatwave, with six days of temperatures over 40 degrees.

Question for Penny Wong: if climate change is responsible for the current Adelaide heatwave, what caused the heatwave in 1908?

UPDATE. In chilly Detroit, one poor fellow could really have used some warming.

http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/timblair/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/century_of_change

The UK Climate Impact Programme Forecasting Scoresheet January 27, 2009

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The UK Climate Impact Programme Forecasting Scoresheet

From Watts Up With That, January 27, 2009

Guest Post by Steven Goddard

The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) is a government funded organization with the following scientifically neutral mission statement on their home pageThe UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) helps organisations to adapt to inevitable climate change. While it’s essential to reduce future greenhouse gas emissions, the effects of past emissions will continue to be felt for decades.

On their headline messages page they have a list of global warming predictions and supporting evidence.  In this article we will examine some of their claims and evidence.

Claim: Summers will continue to get hotter and drier…

  • Evidence: Total summer precipitation has decreased in most parts of the UK, typically by between 10 and 40% since 1961.

According to the UK Met Office, the summer of 2007 was the wettest summer on record.  Summer, 2008 was the wettest on record in Northern Ireland, and broke many local rainfall records in England.  The last hot day in London (30C or 86F) was on July 27, 2006.  London is normally one of the UK’s warmest locations in summer, and it has been 915 days since London has seen any “hot” weather.

Claim: Winters will continue to get milder and wetter…

  • Evidence: Average winter temperature for all regions of the UK has risen by up to 0.7 °C since 1914..

The Met office reported last month: “Temperatures from the Met Office have revealed that the UK has had the coldest start to winter in over 30 years.

This month, the Met Office reported:The British Isles has experienced almost a fortnight of freezing conditions. Temperatures as low as -9 °C have been fairly common throughout southern areas of the UK, with temperatures struggling to rise above freezing in some places.
This winter has not only been unusually cold, but it has also been unusually dry in the UK.
Read the rest here

United States and Global Data Integrity Issues January 25, 2009

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United States and Global Data Integrity Issues

From ICECAP

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow

image

Issues with the United States and especially the global data bases make them inappropriate to use for trend analysis and thus any important policy decisions based on climate change. These issues include inadequate adjustments for urban data, bad instrument siting, use of instruments with proven biases that are not adjusted for, major global station dropout, an increase in missing monthly data and questionable adjustment practices.

NOAA NCDC USHCN – US CLIMATE DATA

When first implemented in 1990 as USHCN version1, it employed 1221 stations across the United States. In 1999, NASA’s James Hansen published this graph of USHCN version 1 annual mean temperatures:

image

About which Hansen correctly noted: “The U.S. has warmed during the past century, but the warming hardly exceeds year-to-year variability. Indeed, in the U.S. the warmest decade was the 1930s and the warmest year was 1934.”

USHCN was generally accepted as the world’s best data base of temperatures with the stations most continuous and stable, and adjustments made for time of observation, urbanization, known land use changes around sites, and instrumentation changes, each of which can produce major contamination issues for temperature data.

NOAA NCDC removed the urbanization adjustment of Karl et al ( 1988 ) in version 2 in 2007. GISS continues to adjust US data for urban heat islands using the satellite determined brightness which categorizes stations as rural, small towns and cities. Here is the latest GISS plot of the US temperatures.

image
See larger image here.

The difference between the NOAA NCDC USHCN version 2 and GISS shows that NOAA’s new algorithm fails to correct for urbanization warming. In fact the NCDC changes have introduced a warming of 0.75F in the 75 years since 1930. Man made warming indeed but the men are in Asheville, NC.

image
See larger image here.

See in the linked PDF how this and other issues creates serious questions about the NOAA US data. Also see how GISS urban adjustment globally fails the test largely because of the lack of accurate metadata (population, siting particulars etc) with about as many urban areas adjusted up as down and how NOAA GHCN and Hadley CRUT3v perform no UHI adjustment but accounts for urbanization by simply increasing the uncertainty by a mere 0.1C per CENTURY.

See how all the other issues most notably major station dropout and missing data, bad siting equipment issues make all the global data bases completely unreliable for trend assessment or for policy decision making. The only reliable data base is the satellite MSU (RSS and UAH) but unfortunately it goes only back to 1979.

My thanks to Ken Gregory of Friends of Science for providing a synopsis of the many excellent and relevant posts by Steve McIntyre on GISS data and of course to Steve and Anthony Watts for their superb work that benefited this report. Again see pdf here.

HadCrut3 Temperature Anomaly December 2008 January 23, 2009

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HadCrut3 Temperature Anomaly December 2008

( January 2008 to December 2008 )


Source

GISS Divergence with satellite temperatures since the start of 2003 January 19, 2009

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GISS Divergence with satellite temperatures since the start of 2003

From Watts Up withThat, January 18, 2009

By Steve Goddard and Anthony Watts

Some of the excellent readers of the last piece we posted on WUWT gave me an idea, which we are following up on here.  The exercise here is to compare GISS and satellite data (UAH and RSS) since the start of 2003, and then propose one possible source of divergence between the GISS and satellite data.  The reason that the start of 2003 was chosen, is because satellite data shows a rapid decline in temperatures starting then, and GISS data does not.  The only exception to the downward trend was an El Nino at the start of 2007, which caused a short but steep spike.  Remembering back a couple of years, Dr. Hansen had in fact suggested that El Nino might turn into a “Super El Nino” which would cause 2007 to be the “hottest year ever.”

The last six years ( 2003-2008 ) show a steep temperature drop in the satellite record, which is not present in the GISS data.   Prior to 2003, the three trends were all close enough to be considered reasonably consistent, but over the last six years is when a large divergence has become very apparent both visually and mathematically.

Click link for larger source image http://www.woodfortrees.org

Since the beginning of 2003, RSS has been dropping at 3.60C/century, UAH has been dropping at 2.84C/century, and GISS has been dropping at 0.96C/century.  All calculations are done in a Google Spreadsheet here:

The divergence between GISS and RSS is shown below.  Since the start of 2003, GISS has been diverging from RSS at 2.64C/century, and GISS has been diverging from UAH at 1.87C/century.  RSS has been diverging from UAH at minus 0.76C/century, indicating that RSS temperatures have been falling a little faster than UAH over the last six years, as can also be seen in the graph above.

Read the rest here

The pain in Maine January 18, 2009

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The pain in Maine

From Watts Up with That, January 17, 2009

I don’t know if any of you readers have ever experienced temperatures that are down to -50°F, but it is painful to endure.

From the NWS WFSO in Caribou, Maine, a report of a new statewide low record event.  (h/t to Joe Bastardi via Jeff L). Unlike the WSFO in Chicago, which wants to throw out a statewide record low temperature because they don’t seem to trust the quality control on an AWOS station calibrated the day before in Rochelle, the WSFO in Caribou seems ready to consider the temperature recorded by a USGS gage. Ah, consistency.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
0955 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2009

**********POTENTIAL STATEWIDE RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE*************

AT 0730 AM EST THIS MORNING A USGS GAGE AT BIG BLACK RIVER RECORDED
A LOW TEMPERATURE OF -50F.  THIS EXCEEDS THE CURRENT STATEWIDE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF -48F SET ON JANUARY 19TH…1925 AT VAN
BUREN. THIS REPORT IS CONSIDERED UNOFFICIAL UNTIL A REVIEW OF THE
EQUIPMENT AND DATA BY THE STATE CLIMATE EXTREMES COMMITTEE AS TO
THE VALIDITY OF THIS REPORT. IF THE COMMITTEE ASCERTAINS THAT THIS
IS INDEED A VALID REPORT…A SEPARATE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
WILL BE ISSUED AT THAT TIME.

$$
PJR
But wait, there’s more from the Caribou WSFO:

Low Temperatures Recorded 16 January, 2009

Here are the preliminary temperature reports from January 16, 2009.

  • First is a map showing temperature reports across northern Maine.
  • Second is a listing of temperature reports from locations across northern Maine.

Our appreciation is extended to highway departments, cooperative observers, SKYWARN spotters and the media for these reports.

A special thanks is extended to the general public for phoning in reports via our automated system. Your help is appreciated and aided us greatly in updating our products.

Temps Map

Read the rest here

Prediction of the May 2009 UAH MSU Global Temperature Result January 18, 2009

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Prediction of the May 2009 UAH MSU Global Temperature Result

From ICECAP

Dr David Archibald

Dr David Archibald

There are now 30 years of satellite data on global temperature. The graph below shows the University of Alabama Huntsville Microwave Sounding Unit (UAH MSU) results for the period 1978 to 2008.

image
See larger image here.

Examination of the record shows a change in character in 2001. Prior to that year, global temperatures tended to rise in a narrow band for a couple of years then have a relatively rapid fall. After 2001, temperatures tended to peak in January and then have a much wider annual range than previously. This is shown in the following graph:

image
See larger image here.

The above graph overlays the month to month results for the period 2002 to 2008, a total of seven years. The larger blue line is the average. For the last seven years, global temperature has tended to fall 0.3 of a degree between January and May, and then rise again to December. Departures from this are caused by El Nino and La Nina events. Just as the 2007 El Nino added 0.2C to the January 2007 result, the 2008 La Nina reduced temperatures in the first half of 2008 by 0.3C. The following figure shows the strength of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) which drives the formation of El Nino and La Nina events.

image
See larger image here.

Another large La Nina formed in late 2008. The combination of the annual pattern of temperature change and the current La Nina enables a short term forecast of the UAH MSU result to be made. The combination of a 0.3c response to the current La Nina and the usual 0.3C decline from January to May will result in a 0.6C decline to May 2009 to a result of -0.4C (0.4C below the long term average). See PDF here.

Let’s see if David can do better than the UKMO has done in recent years. UKMO is already talking a top 5 warmest 2009.

Misguided thinking: All time low temperature record for Illinois called into question by NWS citing lack of confidence in equipment. “ASOS better than AWOS” January 17, 2009

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Misguided thinking: All time low temperature record for Illinois called into question by NWS citing lack of confidence in equipment. “ASOS better than AWOS”

From Watts Up with That, January 17, 2009

https://i2.wp.com/www3.verticalgateway.com/portals/12/rotornews/aug%2008/awos.jpg
ASOS (left) AWOS (right) – both at airports click for larger images

People send me stuff. Last night I got an email from reader Andrew Schut that said:

See public information statement below.  I’m perplexed.

ASOS was put in for “aviation purposes” given its tolerances, yet we use it for climate purposes, why should AWOS be any different?

Not to mention the sensor that AWOS uses is a Vaisala sensor and at least a decade ahead in terms of sensor technology compared to the prehistoric 1088 RTD thermistor that the NWS has been using since the mid 80’s.

What Andrew was referring to was this unusual public information statement from the National Weather Service in Chicago, nullifying an apparently new low statewide temperature record from Rochelle Illinois:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
432 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2009

…REGARDING ROCHELLE`S LOW TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING…
THE AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM (AWOS) AT THE ROCHELLE
AIRPORT RECORDED A TEMPERATURE OF -36F AT 745 AM THIS MORNING.
WHILE THE THERMOMETER ON THE AWOS WAS RE-CALIBRATED YESTERDAY
AND
MAY INDEED BE ACCURATE…AWOS OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT QUALITY
CONTROLLED OR CALIBRATED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
ARE
ALSO NOT DESIGNED FOR CLIMATE PURPOSES.
THEREFORE…THE STATE
CLIMATOLOGIST DOES NOT CONSIDER THIS
TEMPERATURE AN OFFICIAL
MEASUREMENT FOR THE PURPOSE OF
DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT AN ALL
TIME RECORD LOW FOR THE
STATE WAS REACHED. FOR THE PURPOSE OF
DETERMINING RECORD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE STATE…ONLY ASOS AND
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER OBSERVATIONS WILL BE USED SINCE BOTH OF
THESE OBSERVATIONS ARE QUALITY CONTROLLED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

See the original here. Personally, I don’t think airports are a suitable place for ANY climate measurements to be made. Here is why.

Airports are dynamic environments, with changes in air traffic, runway upgrades, new runways, new terminals, more tarmac/access roads, and increased infrastructure in general over time. For the NWS in Chicago to say that one ASOS at one airport is somehow better that an AWOS at another, particularly one calibrated the day before, is simply disingenuous. Throw them both out I say. Airports aren’t “quality controlled” for station siting changes. The claim that ASOS is somehow thus better than AWOS is simply ludicrous. There is a basis for this claim.

Let’s look at some examples of ASOS climate stations and the type of quality control that goes on:

First the issue of encroachment by infrastructure, here’s a new fire station going up next to an ASOS station (which is a USHCN climate station) in Lafayette, LA, I believe the station to the lower right is an older AWOS station:

Read the rest here