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Global Warming On Hold March 6, 2009

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Global Warming On Hold

From ICECAP

By Michael Reilly, Discovery News

For those who have endured this winter’s frigid temperatures and today’s heavy snowstorm in the Northeast, the concept of global warming may seem, well, almost wishful. But climate is known to be variable—a cold winter, or a few strung together doesn’t mean the planet is cooling. Still, according to a new study, global warming may have hit a speed bump and could go into hiding for decades.

Earth’s climate continues to confound scientists. Following a 30-year trend of warming, global temperatures have flatlined since 2001 despite rising greenhouse gas concentrations, and a heat surplus that should have cranked up the planetary thermostat.

For those who have endured this winter’s frigid temperatures and today’s heavy snowstorm in the Northeast, the concept of global warming may seem, well, almost wishful. But climate is known to be variable—a cold winter, or a few strung together doesn’t mean the planet is cooling. Still, according to a new study, global warming may have hit a speed bump and could go into hiding for decades.

Earth’s climate continues to confound scientists. Following a 30-year trend of warming, global temperatures have flatlined since 2001 despite rising greenhouse gas concentrations, and a heat surplus that should have cranked up the planetary thermostat. For those who have endured this winter’s frigid temperatures and today’s heavy snowstorm in the Northeast, the concept of global warming may seem, well, almost wishful.

But climate is known to be variable—a cold winter, or a few strung together doesn’t mean the planet is cooling. Still, according to a new study, global warming may have hit a speed bump and could go into hiding for decades. Earth’s climate continues to confound scientists. Following a 30-year trend of warming, global temperatures have flatlined since 2001 despite rising greenhouse gas concentrations, and a heat surplus that should have cranked up the planetary thermostat.

“This is nothing like anything we’ve seen since 1950,” Kyle Swanson of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee said. “Cooling events since then had firm causes, like eruptions or large-magnitude La Ninas. This current cooling doesn’t have one.”

Instead, Swanson and colleague Anastasios Tsonis think a series of climate processes have aligned, conspiring to chill the climate. In 1997 and 1998, the tropical Pacific Ocean warmed rapidly in what Swanson called a “super El Nino event.” It sent a shock wave through the oceans and atmosphere, jarring their circulation patterns into unison.

How does this square with temperature records from 2005-2007, by some measurements among the warmest years on record? When added up with the other four years since 2001, Swanson said the overall trend is flat, even though temperatures should have gone up by 0.2 degrees Centigrade (0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) during that time.

The discrepancy gets to the heart of one of the toughest problems in climate science—identifying the difference between natural variability (like the occasional March snowstorm) from human-induced change.

But just what’s causing the cooling is a mystery. Sinking water currents in the north Atlantic Ocean could be sucking heat down into the depths. Or an overabundance of tropical clouds may be reflecting more of the sun’s energy than usual back out into space.

Swanson thinks the trend could continue for up to 30 years. But he warned that it’s just a hiccup, and that humans’ penchant for spewing greenhouse gases will certainly come back to haunt us. “When the climate kicks back out of this state, we’ll have explosive warming,” Swanson said. “Thirty years of greenhouse gas radiative forcing will still be there and then bang, the warming will return and be very aggressive.” Read story here.

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See larger image here.

Swanson had it right up to the last paragraph. The warming and cooling relates to the cyclical nature of the oceans (and sun). The Pacific and recently the Atlantic went into strong cooling the last few years, taking surface temperatures down with them. In 30 years, they will bounce back and temperatures will do also. CO2 plays no role.

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Global Warming May Stop for Years or Decades March 5, 2009

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Global Warming May Stop for Years or Decades

Posted on ICECAP

By Justin Berk, The Examiner

The past two snowy winters for the nation may become more common. Has this late winter storm left you scratching your head about global warming?  This winter itself has proven to be cold and snowy for most of the US, including many southern locations (Las Vegas, New Orleans, Houston, and Hawaii).  The snow finally arrived in the Mid Atlantic, albeit late in the season.  The irony of five inches of snow still did not stop the Global Warming protest in DC on Monday, but the onslaught of new research may hinder others.

Michael Reilly posted an article in Discovery News that is getting a lot of internet traffic, as well it should.  It brings up the possibility that warming of the planet will not resume.  First, Reilly cites a new study in Geophysical Research Letters which suggests that global warming might stop for up to 30 years. Wait, in the 1970s, there was fear of an impending ice age.  Newsweek published The Cooling World in 1975.  Since then, the planet has warmed for, uh, about 30 years!

Just last week I reported that 2008 was the coolest year for the planet since 2000.  You can see the related slide show below.  One climate expert tried to argue against it, which put the spotlight on inconsistent data.  There is a debate now just on the accuracy of data.  Arctic sea ice measurements were just discovered to be flawed and were missing ice the size of California due to a faulty sensor.  Even Denver Weather Examiner, Tony Hake, discussed how moving the weather station to the new airport has disrupted their records.  Can we even trust the data we are getting now?

Reilly asked Kyle Swanson of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee about some recent warming: “How does this square with temperature records from 2005-2007, by some measurements among the warmest years on record?” When added up with the other four years since 2001, Swanson said the overall trend is flat, even though temperatures should have gone up by 0.2 degrees Centigrade (0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) during that time.

As a scientist, I have been hesitant about the runaway warming train for one main reason:  Feedback Mechanisms.  Regardless of my belief in the natural cycles and variability, Earth has a way of balancing out extremes.  For example, melting arctic ice would in turn cool the ocean and add fresh water that forces warmer salt water to sink, suppressing a heat source.  Another feedback that is not fully understood is the result of warming on clouds.  Will the atmosphere fill with more clouds since warmer temperatures will lead to more evaporation?  In that case, more rain would be a cooling feedback.  This was seen by Dr. Roy Spenser (former NASA climatologist), who was a pioneer in climate modeling.  His initial data did not include precipitation, and the IPCC ran with those numbers.  When he included precipitation and corrected his numbers, a lot of the expected warming disappeared.

Reilly’s article suggests that this could be part of the natural system: “It is possible that a fraction of the most recent rapid warming since the 1970s was due to a free variation in climate,” Isaac Held of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Princeton, New Jersey wrote in an email to Discovery News. “Suggesting that the warming might possibly slow down or even stagnate for a few years before rapid warming commences again.” Okay, so we have to wait for perhaps another 30 years to see more warming?  Doesn’t this contradict the letter from James Hansen (and Al Gore) to President Obama stating that we only have 4 years left before the point of no return?  Or will the number of years actually increase with the next report?  That does seem to be the trend.  Back on April 30th, the US Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works stated: The UK Telegraph reports on April 30: �Global warming will stop until at least 2015 because of natural variations in the climate, scientists have said. Researchers studying long-term changes in sea temperatures said they now expect a “lull” for up to a decade while natural variations in climate cancel out the increases caused by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.

More scientists and more research continue to support that the Global Warming Theory has some flaws.  The fire media reports may have been overdone.  However, the barrage of attacks against those of us that care to share some of this information is getting worse.  Roger Pilke, Jr. wrote on his blog Prometheus:One climate scientist suggests that my calling out Al Gore for misrepresenting the science of disasters and climate change (as well as Andy Revkin�s comparison of that to George Will�s misrepresentations) to be morally comparable to killing 1,000 people.  It sounds a lot like Dr. Heidi Cullen (The Weather Channel’s former Climate Code) telling Larry King in 2007 that degreed meteorologists who don’t promote Global Warming awareness should lose their certification.  It also sounds like the Catholic Church imprisoning Galileo for promoting heliocentrism.  At that time, the accepted public view was that Earth was the center of the universe.  Speaking out against it, even with scientific proof, was subject to imprisonment or even death. Scary….Read post here.

Mother Nature will not be mocked March 2, 2009

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Mother Nature will not be mocked

By the blogowner, honestclimate, March 2, 2009

Here we go again, when will they learn to host Global Warming protests in summer?

Will the Global Warming protest in Washington, D.C. be canceled because of snow?

One area that appears to be in store for a significant snowfall is Washington, D.C. where a massive global warming protest is planned for Monday. It is being billed as one of the largest ever global warming protests in the U.S. Mother nature will not make it easy as Winter Storm Warnings are posted for the area and snow accumulations could reach as high as 6-8″ with locally higher amounts south and east of the nations capitol.

Record carbon dioxide unable to prevent Snowiest Winter Ever Recorded in North Dakota February 27, 2009

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Record carbon dioxide unable to prevent Snowiest Winter Ever Recorded in North Dakota

By the blogowner honestclimate, February 28, 2009

From Watts Up With That

Snow, wind, and cold have assaulted North Dakota yet again in the past 24 hours. In Bismarck Friday morning the temperature was 12 below zero with a new inch or two of snow expected following Thursday’s more significant storm.

December was a record breaker for Bismarck, as it was at many other locations around the state. In Bismarck, the total for the month was 33.3 inches, the greatest amount ever received in a single month.

By the end of January, many counties had more than 400 percent of normal snow totals on the ground, and Governor John Hoeven had declared a state of emergency.

Let me predict how the alarmists will justify these record cold events:

-Thank goodness for man-made global warming or it would have been even colder/snowier!

-Thanks to man-made global warming these “freak record cold weather” events will become less frequent.

-Actually record cold and snow is proof of man-made global warming climate change

Global Cooling Continues February 17, 2009

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Global Cooling Continues

By James M. Taylor, Heartland Institute

Continuing a decade-long trend of declining global temperatures, the year 2008 was significantly colder than 2007, and global temperatures for the year were below the average over the past 30 years. The global temperature data, reported by NASA satellite-based temperature measurements, refuted predictions 2008 would be one of the warmest on record.

Data show 2008 ranked 14th coldest of the 30 years measured by NASA satellite instruments since they were first launched in 1979. It was the coldest year since 2000.

Satellite Precision

NASA satellites uniformly monitor the Earth�s lower atmosphere, which greenhouse gas theory predicts will show the first and most significant effects of human-caused global warming. The satellite-based measurements are uncorrupted by urban heat islands and localized land-use changes that often taint records from surface temperature stations, giving false indications of warming.

The uncorrupted satellite-based temperature measurements refute surface temperature station data finding 2008 to be one of the top 10 warmest years on record. “How can an ‘average year’ in one database appear to be a [top 10] warmest year in another?” asked meteorologist Joe D’Aleo on his International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project Web site.

“The global databases of [surface station reports] are all contaminated by urbanization, major station dropout, missing data, bad siting, instruments with known warm biases being introduced without adjustment, and black-box and man-made adjustments designed to maximize [reported] warming,” explained D’Aleo.

Warming Trend Overstated

“The substantial and continuing La Nina cooled the Earth quite a bit in 2008, to the point that it was slightly below the 30-year average [1979-2008] but slightly above the 20-year average [1979-1998],” said John Christy, distinguished professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH).

“From research we have published, and more to come soon, we find that land surface air temperatures misrepresent the actual temperature changes in the deep atmosphere – where the greenhouse effect is anticipated to have its easiest impact to measure. Surface thermometers are affected by many influences, especially surface development, so the bulk atmospheric measurements from satellites offer a straightforward indicator of how much heat is or is not accumulating in the air, for whatever reason,” Christy explained.

“Recent published evidence also supports the long-term trends of UAH as being fairly precise, so the observed rate of warming is noticeably less than that projected by the IPCC ‘Best Estimate’ model simulations which, we hypothesize, are too sensitive to CO2 increases,” Christy added.

See this and much more at the Heartland website here. Read about the upcoming Heartland organized ICCC in New York City March 8-10, 2009 here.

Global Cooling? February 3, 2009

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Global Cooling?

Jan 31, 2009

By John Collins, Lowell Sun-Times

As the first director of meteorology for TV’s Weather Channel, Hudson resident Joseph D’Aleo, 61, knows a lot about skepticism and mistaken long-range forecasts. When the fledgling cable outfit started broadcasting in 1982, skeptics forecasted that it wouldn’t last.

Almost 30 years later, “the Internet has become people’s primary source for weather information,” D’Aleo says. He operates his own Web site, http://www.icecap.us, containing 2,500 articles that contradict claims by Al Gore and “mainstream media” types that carbon-dioxide emissions are threatening our—and the polar bears’—existence.

CNN talk host Lou Dobbs interviewed D’Aleo at his Hudson home this week. In early March, D’Aleo will address 1,000 scientists and fellow global-warming skeptics at an international conference in New York City. In the 2009 Old Farmer’s Almanac, he authored a six-page article, Is Global Warming on the Wane? D’Aleo makes this long-range prediction, based on his study of natural solar and oceanic cycles: Last winter, the world embarked on the coldest two-decade stretch in 200 years.

Q: When you started at The Weather Channel in 1981, did you know how popular it would become?
A: A lot of critics laughed at us when we first started, saying people weren’t going to watch weather for 24 hours. But the important thing was, we gave people weather when they wanted it. This was before the Internet. So that worked in our favor.

Q: Does New England really have the world’s quirkiest weather?
A: I travel around the country a lot, and often hear people say, “We have a saying around here in Oklahoma: If you don’t like the weather, just wait a little while.” So we think it’s a New England quirky thing, but in much of the country they say the same thing. But we do have lots of extremes here, and it’s one of the toughest places to forecast for.

Q: Why did global-warming proponents change the preferred phrasing to climate change?
A: Because there’s been no warming for eight years. Since 2001, temperatures around the globe have cooled off by a quarter of a degree Fahrenheit. Climate-change advocates know it, but the mainstream media won’t report it.

Q: Except for Lou Dobbs of CNN? Is that what he came to your house to talk about?
A: His point, and I agree, is that we have to get the science right before spending all this money, before we invest a trillion dollars to combat “global warming”—especially in this economy. People are pushing, especially Al Gore, that we have to spend the money now. And it is not necessary.

Q: What’s the percentage of meteorologists who believe in global warming versus skeptics?
A: Global-warming proponents would have you believe it’s 99 percent in favor. It’s much smaller than that. The skeptics may even be in the majority. Certainly, the believers include the university professors and those people in the federal-grant gravy train. Also, the environmental groups have done very well (in capitalizing) on this issue. You’ve got politicians on the national and local level espousing it. The scary thing is, the people who end up paying are low and middle-income folks, the consumers.

Q: President Obama is in the believer camp. Are you dismayed by that?
A: President Obama wants to decrease carbon-dioxide emissions in the United States by 80 percent by 2030. Let’s say he got very aggressive about that in his first term. It would basically shut down our economy, because sufficient alternative-energy sources are just not there. Just the growth in the rest of the world would replace all the carbon we’d saved through very punitive measures on our own industry. We’d certainly not be a world leader anymore—China and India would be. Our economy would have suffered a great deal of pain for no gain.

See full story and comments here.

NOAA: 2008 Temperature for U.S. Near Average, was Coldest Since 1997; Below Average for December January 14, 2009

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NOAA: 2008 Temperature for U.S. Near Average, was Coldest Since 1997; Below Average for December

From ICECAP

The 2008 annual temperature for the contiguous United States was near average, while the temperature for December was below the long-term average, based on records dating back to 1895, according to a preliminary analysis by scientists at NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C..The Central and Southern regions experienced below-average temperatures, while above-average temperatures were felt in the West, Southwest and Northeast. This resulted in a near average annual temperature for the contiguous U.S. and the coolest annual temperature since 1997.

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The average December 2008 temperature of 32.5 degrees F was 0.9 degree below the 20th Century average. December temperatures were much below average across the Upper Midwest and cooler than average across much of the West, Northwest and Midwest. Warmer-than- average temperatures were experienced in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States. The East North Central region (Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) had its 10th coolest December on record. Respectively, Minnesota and North Dakota had their seventh and eighth coolest December.

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Compare this to the October forecast we made for the winter based on a weak La Nina, low solar, a cold Pacific and the other factors at play. We are off to a good start and with this January cold, it should stay on target at least through this month.

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Pardon, Monsiuer Jarraud !! January 14, 2009

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Pardon, Monsiuer Jarraud !!

From ICECAP

By Alexandre Aguiar / MetSul Weather Center – Brazil

Europe is experiencing one of the coldest periods in recent decades. The German weather service event went further to state this winter is already one of the coldest in 100 years. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) considers these brutal cold days “normal” as result of the ocean variability. The Secretary-General of WMO, Michel Jarraud, told journalists this week that, despite the current cold snap in Europe, the major trend remained unmistakably one of warming. “If we look at the trajectory over the last 160 years�, he said “it overlays a large natural variability, and that’s what causes confusion”. The cooler weather that was a hallmark of 2008 could be explained partly by La Nina, a reversal of the phenomenon by which warm waters build up on the surface of the Pacific.

Well, I love these statements. First of all, if you go the WMO web page dedicated to the ENSO phenomena there is no information on La Nina. Despite the clear signals from the Pacific (marked subsurface cooling, persistent negative PDO and the highest SOI values since 1988 for that time of the year) and the forecasts of many climate models since September and October, the World Meteorological Organization issued a forecast in November for neutrality for early 2009:

“Near-neutral conditions of air-sea interactions currently prevail in the tropical Pacific. These are expected to continue at least through the remainder of 2008. Historically, the normal period for development of El Nino or La Nina is March-May, so forecasters will be watching for any signs of such development. At this time, it is too early to derive reliable indicators on possible El Nino or La Nina development during March-May 2009. Models and expert interpretation are in good agreement that near-neutral conditions are expected to continue at least to the end of 2008 and indeed into early 2009. The situation over the tropical Pacific will continue to be carefully monitored and timely updates of any new developing anomalies provided”.

Well, the Pacific is in classic La Nina mode and no update was provided so far. Isn’t funny to read the WMO blaming La Nina for the massive cold snap in Europe when they were (and still are forecasting in the organization webpage) neutrality for this early 2009 ? If you are a daily ICECAP reader, you must remember we and Joseph D’Aleo were forecasting a La Nina event when the WMO issued its ENSO forecast in November. They cannot forecast correctly the Pacific for 60 days and we are forced to believe they can envision the weather in 100 years. My friends, the real fact is that when Europe suffers a heat wave they rush to point global warming and CO2 as a cause, but when the continent suffers a major cold snap is just natural variability. Pardon Monsieur Jarraud, the Earth is cooling this decade and it is time to update your ENSO web page. See PDF here.

Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age January 13, 2009

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Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age

From ICECAP

Gregory F. Fegel, Pravda, January 11, 2009

The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according to a large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of climate science. Many sources of data which provide our knowledge base of long-term climate change indicate that the warm, twelve thousand year-long Holocene period will rather soon be coming to an end, and then the earth will return to Ice Age conditions for the next 100,000 years. Ice cores, ocean sediment cores, the geologic record, and studies of ancient plant and animal populations all demonstrate a regular cyclic pattern of Ice Age glacial maximums which each last about 100,000 years, separated by intervening warm interglacials, each lasting about 12,000 years.

Most of the long-term climate data collected from various sources also shows a strong correlation with the three astronomical cycles which are together known as the Milankovich cycles. The three Milankovich cycles include the tilt of the earth, which varies over a 41,000 year period; the shape of the earth’s orbit, which changes over a period of 100,000 years; and the Precession of the Equinoxes, also known as the earth’s ‘wobble’, which gradually rotates the direction of the earth�s axis over a period of 26,000 years. According to the Milankovich theory of Ice Age causation, these three astronomical cycles, each of which effects the amount of solar radiation which reaches the earth, act together to produce the cycle of cold Ice Age maximums and warm interglacials. The graph of the Vostok ice core data shows that the Ice Age maximums and the warm interglacials occur within a regular cyclic pattern, the graph-line of which is similar to the rhythm of a heartbeat on an electrocardiogram tracing. The Vostok data graph also shows that changes in global CO2 levels lag behind global temperature changes by about eight hundred years. What that indicates is that global temperatures precede or cause global CO2 changes, and not the reverse.

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In other words, increasing atmospheric CO2 is not causing global temperature to rise; instead the natural cyclic increase in global temperature is causing global CO2 to rise. The reason that global CO2 levels rise and fall in response to the global temperature is because cold water is capable of retaining more CO2 than warm water. That is why carbonated beverages loose their carbonation, or CO2, when stored in a warm environment. We store our carbonated soft drinks, wine, and beer in a cool place to prevent them from loosing their ‘fizz’, which is a feature of their carbonation, or CO2 content. The earth is currently warming as a result of the natural Ice Age cycle, and as the oceans get warmer, they release increasing amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere.

About 325,000 years ago, at the peak of a warm interglacial, global temperature and CO2 levels were higher than they are today. Today we are again at the peak, and near to the end, of a warm interglacial, and the earth is now due to enter the next Ice Age. If we are lucky, we may have a few years to prepare for it. The Ice Age will return, as it always has, in its regular and natural cycle, with or without any influence from the effects of AGW.

The AGW theory is based on data that is drawn from a ridiculously narrow span of time and it demonstrates a wanton disregard for the ‘big picture’ of long-term climate change. The data from paleoclimatology, including ice cores, sea sediments, geology, paleobotany and zoology, indicate that we are on the verge of entering another Ice Age, and the data also shows that severe and lasting climate change can occur within only a few years. While concern over the dubious threat of Anthropogenic Global Warming continues to distract the attention of people throughout the world, the very real threat of the approaching and inevitable Ice Age, which will render large parts of the Northern Hemisphere uninhabitable, is being foolishly ignored.  See more here.

Earlier last week, Joe Bastardi had speculated that Putin was aware of the global cooling threat. See Noel Sheppard’s take on this Pravda story here. As Alan Siddons notes “Whether most of the “new carbon dioxide” we’ve been seeing these past few decades owes to the recent Little Ice Age rebound or even to a delayed effect from the Medieval Warm Period – who knows? – it is certainly not due to human emissions. Because most of this extra CO2 doesn’t have the correct isotope signature.”

January Snowcover Again Highest Since 1967, Running Ahead of 2008 January 12, 2009

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January Snowcover Again Highest Since 1967, Running Ahead of 2008

By Joseh D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow

From ICECAP

Last winter was extremely snowy for the Northern Hemipshere and indeed the fourth week in January had a record for that week in the record that extends back to 1967.

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The snowcover extent in millions of square kilometers is shown for week 4 in 2008. Larger image here.

The snowcover for week 1 is now available from Rutgers Snow Lab. It is the highest level since the first year of the record 1967, a little ahead of 1985.

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Larger image here.

In week 1, we were running 1.37 million square kilometers ahead of last year in the first week of January. In week 2, 1967 diminished and so, our cover may become a record next week.

Will we exceed the 2008 record? Regardless, two years in a row with record or near record hemispheric snow tells you something is changing with our climate. This week’s arctic cold in the United States will have many taking notice.