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It has a gigantic supercomputer, 1,500 staff and a £170m-a-year budget. So why does the Met Office get it so wrong? January 3, 2010

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It has a gigantic supercomputer, 1,500 staff and a £170m-a-year budget. So why does the Met Office get it so wrong?

By Richard North
Mail Online, 2nd January 2010

Cold of a variety not seen in over 25 years in a large scale is about to engulf the major energy-consuming areas of the northern hemisphere. The first 15 days of the opening of the New Year will be the coldest, population weighted, north of 30 [degrees] north worldwide in over 25 years.’

That is the chilling (quite literally) verdict of Joe Bastardi, a weather forecaster on the American TV channel AccuWeather.

Yet, while many months ago he and several of his rivals correctly forecast a pre-Christmas freeze, the organisation that told us last year to prepare for a ‘barbecue summer’ was getting it wrong again.

A Eurostar train makes its way through snow in KentBitter truth: A Eurostar train makes its way through snow in Kent last month despite optimistic Met Office predictions of a mild winter

This is our own famous Met Office, which last September confidently predicted a warmer than average winter for Britain. Tell that to Eurostar passengers stuck in the Channel Tunnel for 18 hours before Christmas, the breakdown of their trains blamed on the coldest weather for 15 years.

Not until late November did the Met Office tone down its prediction by saying that there was a ’50 per cent chance’ of a mild winter.

Spinning a coin could have given the same result – not one you would expect from an organisation that spends nearly £170million a year, has 1,500 staff and a team of scientists operating a £30million supercomputer capable of 1,000 billion calculations every second, with a carbon footprint the size of a small town.

Yet even with this brand-new computer in action since last August, on December 10 the Met Office predicted that it was ‘more likely than not that 2010 will be the warmest year in the instrumental record, beating the previous record year which was 1998’. That prediction stands unchanged.

How could the Met Office be so wrong, both about its barbecue summer and the mild winter? And could the answer to that question have anything to do with its remarkable transformation in recent years?

Read the rest here

Comments»

1. Paul Pierett - January 4, 2010

First of all are they wrong?

Any given government agency is run by people with the head of each department picked directly or indirectly by a politician, king, queen, dictator, communist, liberal or conservative.

Where has England been on the topic? Let’s not forget the British PM’s position on the matter during Copenhagen. I think we are now C+18 and we are still here. Where is the catastrophe he said was coming?

Then there is climate-gate.

So, now we have the politics,

what model do they use? There is earth bound causes which have climate-gate written all over them. That is what the USA, UN and EU are using.

Now with the boundaries placed on government weather offices, what models are they left with to use?

This is all politics and very little science.

I recommend the Farmer’s Almanac.

After researching the causes of global warming for three years, writing progress research papers on what I found and discovered or rediscovered in someone else’s work, I rarely could find anything mentioned on the web three years ago. Now, I am finding today what some researchers discovered 80 years ago now posted on the web.

Back to MET

What data are they using?

How are they creating their models?

Who does the director answer to?

Is the director a team player or independent officer?

Do the employees and officers fear for their jobs and pensions in a recession?

That said, where do we begin?

Let’s look at the number of sunspots and how far we are away from the sun in a slightly elliptical orbit. We have that data, we have history, we have other sciences to tell us what has happened in the past to verify what is coming.

We are now in a solar minimum that will last at least 23 years. That will significantly affect our temperatures causing sever winters.

We have governments and politicians not prepared to handle this. Some states in the USA have already spent their budget on snow removal with 3 months to go.

If winter were a train and our governments and weather offices were migrants on the track, they may never see the train coming.

Are you prepared against blackouts, water breaks, and other winter related breakdowns? “Be Prepared”, is the Scout’s Law. Look out for number one and your family.

Most Sincerely,

Paul Pierett


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