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No Rise of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Fraction in Past 160 Years, New Research Finds January 1, 2010

Posted by honestclimate in Discussions.
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No Rise of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Fraction in Past 160 Years, New Research Finds

Science Daily, December 31, 2009

ScienceDaily (Dec. 31, 2009) — Most of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activity does not remain in the atmosphere, but is instead absorbed by the oceans and terrestrial ecosystems. In fact, only about 45 percent of emitted carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere.

However, some studies have suggested that the ability of oceans and plants to absorb carbon dioxide recently may have begun to decline and that the airborne fraction of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions is therefore beginning to increase.

Many climate models also assume that the airborne fraction will increase. Because understanding of the airborne fraction of carbon dioxide is important for predicting future climate change, it is essential to have accurate knowledge of whether that fraction is changing or will change as emissions increase.

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1. Magnus A - January 1, 2010

Good article observation!

Science Daily: “In fact, only about 45 percent of emitted carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere.”

This is quite basic, and maximum. It’s another simple truth ordinary media won’t reveal; instead they say the CO2 rate increases more than ever, and that CO2 stays in the atmosphere for 100s or 1000s of years.

It’s basic since NOAA themselves says that 49 percent is absorbed by the oceans. Christopher Sabine et al (NOAA Research, 2004).

Besides this other studies shows that plants absorbs a lot, so we got 55-60 percent here. But some of the increased concentration must also be from higher sea temperature, since there’s a correlation:

Despite that the CO2 increase in the atmosphere is half the emission rate all increase shouldn’t be from our emissions. I would guess at most 10-20 percent of the increase, which would be 4-8 percent of the concentration in the atmosphere.

Btw, Ernst-Georg Beck has released the web page RealCO2:

//Happy New Year, Magnus A in Sweden

PS. I also think that Quirks conclusions here may poke a hole in the accumulation hypothesis if the CO2 concentration starts to levels out when it becomes colder, just as the methane concentration did when it reached an equilibrium in the late 90s:

PPS. I don’t like science Daily’s speculation on decline in the Oceans ability to store CO2. That’s slightly a gloom and doom statement. There are no acid Oceans, and no drop in the their absorbtion rate.


2. Magnus A - January 1, 2010

No, this is bigger than I thought since they doubt any increase at all! (I didn’t expect this, and became blind?)


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