The Garnaut Cult September 19, 2009Posted by honestclimate in Discussions.
Tags: climate change, global warming
The Garnaut Cult
by Tom Quirk
Quadrant Online, September 9, 2009
Waiting for who knows what?
As the Government continues to pursue the imminent introduction of an Emissions Trading Scheme more and more questions are being asked about its scientific foundations by highly qualified scientists and others. Yet these doubts are simply being disregarded. This is a high risk path with no apparent ability to back-down if the entire edifice is built on sand.
What is the scientific basis used by the Government? In the Explanatory Memorandum to the Rudd Government’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Bill, we read the following:
Scientific evidence confirms that human activities such as burning fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas), agriculture and land clearing have increased the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. As a consequence the earth’s average temperature is rising and weather patterns are changing. This is affecting rainfall patterns, water availability, sea levels, storm activity, droughts and bushfire frequency putting at risk Australian coastal communities, health outcomes, agriculture, tourism, heritage and biodiversity for current and future generations.
This statement comes in part from the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report of the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, a combination of Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO scientists. Their report summary highlights an increasing number of exceptionally hot years and exceptionally low rainfall years but also contains a caution about the uncertainties of the projections. The Minister for Climate Change appears to have ignored the warning in the report disclaimer that “Any person relying on the assessment does so entirely at his or her own risk”. Unfortunately it is our collective risk.
Although Garnaut does acknowledge the science has uncertainties, the Garnaut Report simply accepts this catalogue of impending climate extremes as the foundation for its recommendations on emissions trading. However there are some inconvenient facts that might indicate that this “weather” report is of little if any value.
In 1963, a study of 75 years of Australian rainfall by Professor Sir Samuel Wadham, R Kent Wilson and Joyce Wood concluded that “nowhere in the world is there such a huge area of pastoral land of such erratic rainfall as this pastoral country of Australia”, adding that “the immediate effects of violent fluctuations of climate on the development of agriculture are considerable, but their ultimate effects are much greater than are normally appreciated.” If this is the case how do we verify the predicted future given our erratic past?
You have only to compare the global and Australian temperatures over the last one hundred years to see our climate variability compared to that of the planet as a whole.
Read the rest here