VALIDITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE FORECASTING FOR PUBLIC POLICY DECISION MAKING

VALIDITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE FORECASTING FOR PUBLIC POLICY DECISION MAKING

Via NZ Climate Science
September 3, 2009

“Using the IPCC warming rate for our demonstration, we projected the rate successively over a period analogous to that envisaged in their scenario of exponential CO2 growth—the years 1851 to 1975. The errors from the projections were more than seven times greater than the errors from the benchmark method. Relative errors were larger for longer forecast horizons.” – Kesten C Green, Scott Armstrong and Willie Soon in paper to be published in International Journal of Forecasting.

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