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Global Warming or Global Cooling? A New Trend in Climate Alarmism July 24, 2009

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Global Warming or Global Cooling? A New Trend in Climate Alarmism

by Dr. David Evans
Via Global Research, July 23, 2009

Senator Steve Fielding recently asked the [Australian] Climate Change Minister Penny Wong why human emissions can be blamed for global warming, given that air temperatures peaked in 1998 and began a cooling trend in 2002, while carbon dioxide levels have risen five per cent since 1998. I was one of the four independent scientists Fielding chose to accompany him to visit the Minister.

The Minister’s advisor essentially told us that short term trends in air temperatures are irrelevant, and to instead focus on the rapidly rising ocean heat content:

Figure 1: Wong’s graph.

This is the new trend in climate alarmism. Previously the measure of global warming has always been air temperatures. But all the satellite data says air temperatures have been in a mild down trend starting 2002. The land thermometers preferred by the alarmists showed warming until 2006, but even they show a cooling trend developing since then.

(Land thermometers cannot be trusted because, even in the USA, 89 per cent of them fail siting guidelines that they be more than 30 meters from an artificial heating or radiating/reflecting heat source, and their data is forever being “corrected”.)

Ocean temperatures were not properly measured until mid-2003, when the Argo network became operational.

Before Argo, ocean temperatures were measured with bathythermographs (XBTs)—expendable probes fired into the water by a gun from ships along the main commercial shipping lanes. Geographical coverage of the world’s oceans was poor, XBTs do not go as deep as Argo, and their data is much less accurate.

The Argo network consists of over 3,000 small, drifting oceanic robot probes, floating around all of the world’s oceans. Argo floats duck dive down to 1,000 meters or more, record temperatures, then come up and radio back the results.

Figure 2: The Argo network has floats measuring temperature in all of the oceans.

Figure 3: An Argo float descends to cruising depth, drifts for a few days, ascends while recording temperatures, then transmits data to satellites.

The Argo data shows that the oceans have been in a slight cooling trend since at least late-2004, and possibly as far back as mid-2003 when the Argo network started:

Figure 4: Ocean heat content from mid 2003 to early 2008, as measured by the Argo network, for 0-700 metres. There is seasonal fluctuation because the oceans are mainly in the southern hemisphere, but the trend can be judged from the highs and lows. (This shows the recalibrated data, after the data from certain instruments with a cool bias were removed. Initial Argo results showing strong cooling.)

Josh Willis of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, in charge of the Argo data, said in March 2008: “There has been a very slight cooling, but not anything really significant”.

The ocean data that the alarmists are relying on to establish their warming trends is all pre-Argo, from XBTs. Now that we are measuring ocean temperatures properly, the warming trend has disappeared. And by coincidence, it disappeared just when we started measuring it properly!
Notice how the Minister’s graph above shows rising ocean heat content for 2004 through 2006, but the Argo data shows a cooling trend? There is a problem here.

The Argo data is extraordinarily difficult to find on the Internet. There is no official or unofficial website showing the latest ocean temperature. Basically the only way to get the data is to ask Josh Willis (above). The graph above come from Craig Loehle, who got the data from Willis, analysed it, and put the results in a peer reviewed paper available on the Internet. Given the importance of the ocean temperatures, don’t you think this is extraordinary?

If the Argo data showed a warming trend, don’t you suppose it would be publicised endlessly?

So what’s going on? Our best data, from satellites and Argo, says that both the air and oceans have not warmed for at least five years now. In the short term, some cooling force is overpowering the warming due to human emissions.

Let’s look at the long-term trend. The medieval warm period around AD 1000 – 1300 was a little warmer than now: crops grew in Greenland, and there were many signs around the world of extra warmth during that period. That gave way to the bitter cold of the little ice age from 1400 to 1800: animals in Europe died from cold even inside barns, and the River Thames in London would freeze over every winter (it last froze over in 1804).

Global air temperatures have been rising at a steady trend rate of 0.5°C per century since about 1750, as the world recovers from the little ice age:

Figure 5: Reasonable global air temperature data only goes back to 1880. This analysis into a steady rising trend and oscillations is simply an empirical observation, by Dr Syun Akasofu. The IPCC predictions are their widely publicised 2001 predictions.

On top of that trend are oscillations that last about 30 years in each direction:

1882 – 1910 Cooling
1910 – 1944 Warming
1944 – 1975 Cooling
1975 – 2001 Warming

In 2009 we are where the green arrow points in Figure 5, with temperature levelling off and beginning to fall slightly. The pattern suggests that the world has entered a period of cooling until about 2030.

The long-term trend suggests that the last warming period (1975-2001) was like the previous one (1910-1944), and that once the effects of the little ice age have finally passed, the temperature will get back to where it was in the medieval warm period (which is also where it was during the Roman Optimum, and in the Holocene optimum before that).

What about human influence? Human emissions of CO2 were virtually non-existent before 1850, and were insignificant compared to current levels until after 1945.

It is worth bearing in mind that there is no actual evidence that carbon dioxide was the main cause of recent warming—it’s only an assumption, and the calculations of future temperature rises derive most of their warming from an assumed water vapor feedback for which there is only counter-evidence.

Dr David Evans worked for the Australian Greenhouse Office from 1999 to 2005, building the carbon accounting model that Australia uses to track carbon in its biosphere for the purposes of the Kyoto Protocol. He is a mathematician and engineer, with six university degrees including a PhD from Stanford University.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=14504

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UK Met Office Refuses to Disclose Station Data Once Again July 24, 2009

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UK Met Office Refuses to Disclose Station Data Once Again

By Steve McIntyre on July 23rd, 2009

It must be humiliating for the UK Met Office to have to protect Phil Jones and CRU. Even a seasoned bureaucrat must have winced in order to write the following:

Some of the information was provided to Professor Jones on the strict understanding by the data providers that this station data must not be publicly released and it cannot be determined which countries or stations data were given in confidence as records were not kept.

Here is the complete text of the UK Met Office’s most recent refusal of their station data.

Our Ref: 22-06-2009-131902-003 23 July 2009
Dear Mr McIntyre

Request for Information – Information not Held and Refusal to Disclose Information
Your correspondence dated 9 June 2009 has been considered to be a request for information in accordance with the Environmental Information Regulations 2004. The Ministry of Defence is permitted to withhold information where exceptions are considered justifiable.

You asked “You stated that CRUTEM3 data that you held was the value added data. Pursuant to the Environmental Information Regulations Act 2004, please provide me with this data in the digital form, together with any documents that you hold describing the procedures under which the data has been quality controlled and where deemed appropriate, adjusted to account for apparent non-climatic influences”.

Your request has been assessed and this letter is to inform you that the Met Office does hold some information covered by the request. We do not hold documents describing the procedures under which the data has been quality controlled or adjusted to account for apparent non-climatic influences.

The information held by the Met Office is withheld in accordance with the following exceptions pursuant to the Environmental Information Regulations Act 2004:
• Section 12 (5) (a) Information likely to prejudice relations between the United Kingdom and any International organisation;
• Section 12 (5) (e) Confidentiality of commercial or industrial information where such confidentiality is provided by law to protect a legitimate economic interest.
• Section 12 (5) (f) (i) (iii) The supplier was not under legal obligation to supply the information and has not consented to its disclosure.

As the above exceptions are qualified exceptions, a public interest test was undertaken by the Met Office to consider whether there are overriding reasons why disclosure of this information would not be in the public interest. The Met Office has duly considered these reasons in conjunction with the public interest in disclosing the requested information, in particular the benefits of assisting the public having information on environmental information, whereby they would hope to influence decisions from a position of knowledge rather than speculation.
Access to environmental information is particularly important as environmental issues affect
the whole population.

Read the rest here

Follow the hot money July 23, 2009

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Follow the hot money

By Andrew Bolt
Herald Sun, July 23, 2009

Who wouldn’t be a believer, in such a climate?

* The US government has provided over $79 billion since 1989 on policies related to climate change, including science and technology research, foreign aid, and tax breaks.

* Despite the billions: “audits” of the science are left to unpaid volunteers…

* Carbon trading worldwide reached $126 billion in 2008. Banks are calling for more carbon-trading. And experts are predicting the carbon market will reach $2 – $10 trillion making carbon the largest single commodity traded.

* Meanwhile in a distracting sideshow, Exxon-Mobil Corp is repeatedly attacked for paying a grand total of $23 million to skeptics—less than a thousandth of what the US government has put in, and less than one five-thousandth of the value of carbon trading in just the single year of 2008.

Read Joanne Nova’s findings in full here.

But maybe all this spending really is saving us from warming. Observe that spending goes up …

image

… and the temperature goes down:

image

It worked!

UPDATE

A new paper says changes in ocean currents, rather than carbon dioxide, explain most of the recent warming:

Overall the results suggest that the Southern Oscillation exercises a consistently dominant influence on mean global temperature, with a maximum effect in the tropics, except for periods when equatorial volcanism causes ad hoc cooling. That mean global tropospheric temperature has for the last 50 years fallen and risen in close accord with the SOI of 5–7 months earlier shows the potential of natural forcing mechanisms to account for most of the temperature variation.

Brrrr, is Al Gore back in the USA? July 22, 2009

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Brrrr, is Al Gore back in the USA?

Brrrr, is Al Gore back in his hometown after his recent carbon emitting trip to Melbourne?

The Gore Effect has struck Al Gore’s hometown of Nashville which has broken cold records set in the year 1897.

Actually looks like the Gore Effect has struck most of the USA:

The USA has set an incredible 1077 Lowest Max Temperatures and 856 Low Temperatures for the week ending Tue 21 July!

Can you imagine how much colder it would have been without all that man-made global warming?

Is the Sun Missing Its Spots? July 21, 2009

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Is the Sun Missing Its Spots?

The New York Times, July 20, 2009


NASA
SUN GAZING These photos show sunspots near solar maximum on July 19, 2000, and near solar minimum on March 18, 2009. Some global warming skeptics speculate that the Sun may be on the verge of an extended slumber.

The Sun is still blank (mostly).

Ever since Samuel Heinrich Schwabe, a German astronomer, first noted in 1843 that sunspots burgeon and wane over a roughly 11-year cycle, scientists have carefully watched the Sun’s activity. In the latest lull, the Sun should have reached its calmest, least pockmarked state last fall.

Indeed, last year marked the blankest year of the Sun in the last half-century — 266 days with not a single sunspot visible from Earth. Then, in the first four months of 2009, the Sun became even more blank, the pace of sunspots slowing more.

“It’s been as dead as a doornail,” David Hathaway, a solar physicist at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Ala., said a couple of months ago.

The Sun perked up in June and July, with a sizeable clump of 20 sunspots earlier this month.

Now it is blank again, consistent with expectations that this solar cycle will be smaller and calmer, and the maximum of activity, expected to arrive in May 2013 will not be all that maximum.

For operators of satellites and power grids, that is good news. The same roiling magnetic fields that generate sunspot blotches also accelerate a devastating rain of particles that can overload and wreck electronic equipment in orbit or on Earth.

A panel of 12 scientists assembled by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration now predicts that the May 2013 peak will average 90 sunspots during that month. That would make it the weakest solar maximum since 1928, which peaked at 78 sunspots. During an average solar maximum, the Sun is covered with an average of 120 sunspots.

But the panel’s consensus “was not a unanimous decision,” said Douglas A. Biesecker, chairman of the panel. One member still believed the cycle would roar to life while others thought the maximum would peter out at only 70.

Among some global warming skeptics, there is speculation that the Sun may be on the verge of falling into an extended slumber similar to the so-called Maunder Minimum, several sunspot-scarce decades during the 17th and 18th centuries that coincided with an extended chilly period.

Most solar physicists do not think anything that odd is going on with the Sun. With the recent burst of sunspots, “I don’t see we’re going into that,” Dr. Hathaway said last week.

Read the rest here

HOT ISSUE: Should we deliberately move species? July 20, 2009

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HOT ISSUE: Should we deliberately move species?

Via Yahoo News, July 19, 2009

LOS ANGELES – On naked patches of land in western Canada and United States, scientists are planting trees that don’t belong there. It’s a bold experiment to move trees threatened by global warming into places where they may thrive amid a changing climate.

Take the Western larch with its thick grooved bark and green needles. It grows in the valleys and lower mountain slopes in British Columbia’s southern interior. Canadian foresters are testing how its seeds will fare when planted farther north — just below the Arctic Circle.

Something similar will be tried in the Lower 48. Researchers will uproot moisture-loving Sitka spruce and Western redcedar that grace British Columbia’s coastal rainforests and drop their seedlings in the dry ponderosa pine forests of Idaho.

All of this swapping begs the question: Should humans lend nature a helping hand?

With global warming threatening the livelihoods of certain plants and animals, this radical idea once dismissed in scientific circles has moved to the forefront of debate and triggered strong emotions among conservationists.

About 20 to 30 percent of species worldwide face a high risk of becoming extinct possibly by 2100 as global temperatures rise, estimated a 2007 report by the Nobel-winning international climate change panel. The group noted that current conservation practices are “generally poorly prepared to adapt to this level of change.”

Deliberating moving a species has long been opposed by some, who believe we should not play God with nature and worry that introducing an exotic species — intentionally or not — could upset the natural balance and cause unforeseen ripple effects. It has happened before with dire results. Two decades ago, zebra mussels were accidentally introduced into the Great Lakes and millions are now spent every year removing the pest from water pipes.

Read the rest here

Hotter, colder, more, less…and they say the science is settled? July 19, 2009

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Hotter, colder, more, less…and they say the science is settled?

By the blogowner, honestclimate, July 19, 2009

Thought I’d share the below articles from the last couple of weeks.  Please bear in mind that the debate is over and the science is settled…

Sydney’s climate to ‘become like Brisbane’s’
Via the ABC, July 6, 2009

The globe’s tropical zone is expanding rapidly and by the end of the century, Sydney’s climate will be more like Brisbane’s is today, Australian experts say.

Australia: Record cold hits the tropics
Via Globalfreeze, July 18, 2009

Clermont in the Central Highlands plummeted to minus three degrees on Saturday morning, 10 degrees below their July average and the towns coldest night on record. Sub zero temperatures even spread as far north as Mt Isa, their coldest night in seven years. Even mild coastal areas have dropped to single figures over the past few nights with Rockhampton recording a minimum of just three on Saturday morning, colder than any night in central Sydney for more than 20 years.

Wow, the tropics colder than Sydney? I guess we could just blame climate change for the cold, like the BBC does in the article below.

Children die in harsh Peru winter
Via the BBC, July 12, 2009

Almost 250 children under the age of five have died in a wave of intensely cold weather in Peru.
Children die from pneumonia and other respiratory infections every year during the winter months particularly in Peru’s southern Andes.
But this year freezing temperatures arrived almost three months earlier than usual.
Experts blame climate change for the early arrival of intense cold which began in March.

More, less, whatever
Via Andrew Bolt, July 18, 2009

2006:

Global warming is intensifying the monsoon in Central India, according to a study that warns of increasing risk from heavier rains during the season.

2009:

Each year, millions of farmers in India hope and pray for the right kind of monsoon rains to help grow their crops. But it’s believed climate change is delaying the onset of the monsoon – threatening crops and pushing up the prices of basic foods. .

Warming turns out nice
Via Andrew Bolt, July 17, 2009

It has been assumed that global warming would cause an expansion of the world’s deserts, but now some scientists are predicting a contrary scenario in which water and life slowly reclaim these arid places….

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned recently that rising global temperatures could cut West African agricultural production by up to 50% by the year 2020. But satellite images from the last 15 years do seem to show a recovery of vegetation in the Southern Sahara

Al Gore runs away from Senator Steve Fielding… July 18, 2009

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Al Gore runs away from Senator Steve Fielding…

——————————————————————————————–

The real reason I’ll fight in the Senate on climate change

Excerpts from The Punch, July 16, 2009

By Senator Steve Fielding

Senator Steve Fielding

Climate change is real. Yes that’s right, contrary to the misreporting in the media, I do believe in climate change.

That might come as a shock to some of those on the left side of politics, but it’s the truth.

The question that concerns me, however,  is what is driving it? Is it increasing levels of human made carbon dioxide emissions, variations in solar radiation or something else?

But then enter Al Gore. Here was a man who had a lot of power and went around the world preaching about climate change. I thought he might have the answer for me, the ones I couldn’t extract from the Rudd government.

I briefly met Mr Gore at a breakfast in Melbourne attended by more than a thousand people. He was aware of the important role Family First plays in the senate and was keen to catch up.

After a series of phone calls I was met with a stonewall of resistance. I offered to meet Mr Gore at any place at any time but had no luck. Here we had the former Vice President of the United States, a self proclaimed climate change preacher running away from me over a few simple questions. I could hardly believe it.

I would have thought if Al Gore was really committed to the cause he would want to meet with all senators who had concerns about the science if it would help ensure that the CPRS legislation would pass. Obviously I was wrong.

Read the rest of this excellent article here:

Catholic church ‘a climate change sinner’ July 18, 2009

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Catholic church ‘a climate change sinner’

Forgive me for I have emitted

THE Catholic Church has confessed it is one of the biggest carbon emission sinners in Australia

Via The Daily Telegraph, July 18, 2009

Catholic Earthcare, the organisation set up in 2002 by bishops to advise the church on environmental issues, admitted the Australian Catholic church has a carbon footprint dwarfing other major organisations.

Ms Redmond says the decision to analyse the church’s carbon emissions using high-tech new tools developed by CarbonSystems, a private firm which helps organisations reduce carbon output, would lead to a reduction of the church’s footprint.

The move was backed yesterday by former US vice-president and environmental campaigner Al Gore who met Prime Minister Kevin Rudd in Sydney this week.

“The availability of this new tool for measuring our impact on the environment will allow us to measure and manage, to help us be good stewards in caring for God’s creation,” Mr Gore said.

gore-pope

Repent carbon dioxide sinners and buy carbon offsets from me!


Dr.Timothy F. Ball on Alex Jones show July 17, 2009

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Dr.Timothy F. Ball on Alex Jones show on 30/06/2009

Watch the rest here