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92F New York City in April Portends a Coolish U.S. Summer April 27, 2009

Posted by honestclimate in Discussions.
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92F New York City in April Portends a Coolish U.S. Summer

Posted on ICECAP

By Joseph D’Aleo

Temperatures leaped to 92F at Central Park today as a storm developing over the central pumped warm air east. The air was very dry as vegetation is still mainly dormant. A cooling sea breeze quickly cooled the city but most inland areas stayed in the low 90s. Another very warm day or two are expected this week before wetter cooler weather comes east.

One of the warmest days occurred in April 1976 when it reached 96F in New York City on the 18th of the month. It also reached 90F in 1977. How unusual is that. Well it is pretty common actually in the last half of the month.

Empirically most forecasters have observed early heat seems often to be followed by seasonable to cooler temperatues in the following summer for the United States. I looked at the years with 90F in New York City in the last century.

Here is what the summer for the United States temperaturewise looked like.

image

That jives with 3rd summers of La Nina’s trending towards El Nino:

image

With years with similar, solar, ocean cycles, QBO and other factors:

image

And with summers following high latitude volcanic eruptions:

image

By the way, the only year common to all the composite sets above is 1976…..hmmmm

CPC’s Climate Model, the CFS agrees. Here is the latest CFS climate models for summer:

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