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Update: Sun and Ice April 16, 2009

Posted by honestclimate in sunspots.
Tags: , , ,

Update: Sun and Ice


By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

The sun remains in a deep slumber.


Today we are 15 days into April without a sunspot and with 603 sunspotless day this cycle minimum, 92 already this year.  2009 at this rate, is likely to enter the top 10 years the last century along with 2007 (9th) and 2008 (2nd) this summer.


If it stays quiet the rest of this month, the minimum can be no earlier than November 2008, at least a 12.5 year cycle length. I believe January 2009 is a better shot to be the solar minimum as sunspot number would have to be below 0.5 in June 2008 to prevent the running mean (13 month) from blipping up then. April needs only to stay below 3.2 and May 3.4 to get us to January. This would be very like cycles 1 to 4 in the late 1700s and early 1800s, preceding the Dalton Minimum. That was a cold era, the age of Dickens and the children playing in the snow in London, much like this past winter.



As for the ice, we hear in the media the hype about the arctic and Antarctic ice. The arctic ice we are told is more first and second year ice and very vulnerable to a summer melt.


Actually the arctic ice is very 3rd highest level since 2002, very close to 2003, in a virtual tie to last winter and the highest year according to IARC-JAXA. The anomaly is a relatively small 300,000 square km according to The Cryosphere Today.

There was much attention paid in the media to the crack in the Wilkins Ice sheet bridge. It was not even reflected as a blip on the Southern Hemisphere ice extent, which has grown rapidly as the southern hemisphere winter set in to 1,150,000 square kms above the normal for this date and rising rapidly.


The net GLOBAL sea ice anomaly is also positive, 850,000 square km above the normal. See full PDF here.



1. John A. Jauregui - May 8, 2009

John A. Jauregui (20:37:23) : Your comment is awaiting moderation

I wonder why world oil production statistics aren’t news together with the cooling climate. It is very clear by checking IEA data that world oil production peaked four years ago in 2005. Those two facts together bode ill for a planetary population looking at a dramatically cooling climate in the face of declining fuel inventories. Hello, hello? Why are Democrats so desparate to lean into this left hook by raising draconian taxes on the use of fossil fuels? Why are they spending so much national treasure to convince us that WE are responsible for a beneficial planet-wide warming, when we know, and have known for decades it’s the sun? Why are they demonizing CO2, an infinitesimal trace gas essential to life-giving photosynthesis, which increases crop and forest yields at higher atmospheric concentrations. It just doesn’t get much more Orwellian than this. Clearly we have entered the “New Age of Darkness”.

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