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Sun Continues Hibernation March 14, 2009

Posted by honestclimate in sunspots.
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Sun Continues Hibernation

Posted on ICECAP

By Joseph D’Aleo on Intellicast

The sun continues in hibernation mode. NASA and others thought in late 2006 it had bottomed out but it has continued to slide. Since it can’t go negative, it has leveled off scraping the bottom of the chart. The NASA team projections for the next cycle continue to slip further into the future and periodically adjusted down. They present two scenarios one for a more active cycle (24) with a peak at the start of 2012 and the second a weaker one peaking around the end of 2012 or start of 2013.

See larger here.

When will the minimum be? Since the most common method is the 13 month running mean. You don’t know for sure when a minimum takes place sometimes until 6 months after it occurs. The exception would be a month with a very big jump (Much higher than 13 months ago). That would indicate the mean 7 months ago will turn up, at least a relative minimum.  With the February sunspot number lower than 13 months ago, the minimum can’t be earlier than August 2008 and more likely October 2008. It could be later. That would make the cycle 23 length at least 12 years 5 months long. That would be the longest since the middle 1800s and perhaps the late 1700s or early 1800s.

See larger here.

There are many scientists who believe cycle 24 will be far less active than either NASA projection. Some use cycle length and the behavior of certain types of activity like the geomagnetic activity at the minimum as indicators. Like the climate and ENSO forecast models, some models are statistical others dynamical. See some projections here.

They include Clilverd et al who believes based on regression analysis a very quiet cycle like the early 1800s. He states:

“We use a model for sunspot number using low-frequency solar oscillations, with periods 22, 53, 88, 106, 213, and 420 years modulating the 11-year Schwabe cycle, to predict the peak sunspot number of cycle 24 and for future cycles, including the period around 2100 A.D. We extend the earlier work of Damon and Jirikowic (1992) by adding a further long-period component of 420 years.

Typically, the standard deviation between the model and the peak sunspot number in each solar cycle from 1750 to 1970 is plus or minus 34. The peak sunspot prediction for cycles 21, 22, and 23 agree with the observed sunspot activity levels within the error estimate. Our peak sunspot prediction for cycle 24 is significantly smaller than cycle 23, with peak sunspot numbers predicted to be 42 plus or minus 34.”

See larger here.

The Geomagnetic Index (Ap) also continues extraordinarily low. This has resulted in a very low level of aurora activity. As this Newsminer story noted:”The Interior’s normal wintertime light show has been noticeably absent this winter.”


See much more here.



1. Gramfan - March 15, 2009

Thought you might find this interesting. It was written in 2002!

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