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It’s Just Not Possible to Forecast Climate March 9, 2009

Posted by honestclimate in Discussions.
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It’s Just Not Possible to Forecast Climate

From the Jennifer Marohasy blog, March 9, 2009

CLIMATE is complex and represents exactly the kind of system that cannot be modeled with any accuracy.   At least that is according to Kesten Green, a forecasting expert at Monash University, Australia.  Dr Green argues that a key question when trying to predict future climate is to ask: Can we do better than assume future temperatures will be the same as current temperatures?

In the following paper, based on a presentation to be given at the second international Climate Conference in New York later today, Dr Kesten explains that there is no scientific basis for the United Nation’s International Panel on Climate Change forecasts of global warming.

Climate change forecasts are useless for policymaking
By Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong, and Willie Soon

EVEN as we struggle with serious global financial and economic difficulties, some people believe manmade global warming is a real problem of urgent concern. Perhaps this is because, almost every day, media outlets quote “experts” who predict that soaring temperatures, rising sea levels, increasing storms, prolonged droughts and other disasters will result from human activity.

NASA scientist James Hansen claims “death trains” carrying coal are putting our planet “in peril.” If we continue using hydrocarbon energy, he predicts, “…one ecological collapse will lead to another, in amplifying feedbacks.” He further forecasts that only by eliminating coal-fired power plants and other sources of carbon dioxide can we prevent the collapse.

The situation recalls a 1974 CIA report that concluded there was “growing consensus among leading climatologists that the world is undergoing a cooling trend”… one likely to cause a food production crisis. Dr. Hansen would probably appreciate the frustration those CIA experts must have felt when Congress ignored their forecasts and recommendations.

Read the rest here


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