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Climate change questioned after 2008 tipped to be coolest year of the century January 1, 2009

Posted by honestclimate in Global Cooling.
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Climate change questioned after 2008 tipped to be coolest year of the century

From News.com.au, January 1, 2009

-2008 tipped to be coolest year of the century
-Global warming debate reopened
-Record cold temperatures mix with heatwaves

WHILE the official figures are not yet in, 2008 is widely tipped to be declared the coolest year of the century.

Whether this is a serious blow to global warming alarmists depends entirely on who you talk to.

Anyone looking for a knockout blow in the global warming debate in 2008 were sorely disappointed, The Australian reports.

The weather refused to co-operate, offering mixed messages from record cold temperatures across North America to heatwaves across Europe and the Middle East earlier in the year.

Even in Australia yesterday there were flurries of snow on the highest peaks of a shivering Tasmania, while the north of the country sweltered in above-average temperatures.

A cool 2008 may not fit in with doomsday scenarios of some of the more extreme alarmists. But nor, meteorologists point out, does it prove the contrary, that global warming is a myth.

In Australia this year, on the most recent figures, the average temperature was 22.18C.

Last year it was 22.48C. In 2006 it was 22.28C, and in 2005 22.99C.

Senior meteorologist with the National Meteorological Centre Rod Dickson said that based on data from January to November, 2008 might be the coolest this century but it was still Australia’s 15th warmest year in the past 100 years.

“Since 1990, the Australian annual mean temperature has been warmer than the 1961-1990 average for all but two years, 2008 being one of those years,” he said.

In Australia overall, 2008 on the most recent date, was 0.37C higher than for the 30-year average to 1990 of 21.81C.

Worldwide, 2008 was expected to be about 0.31C higher than the 30-year average to 1990, of 14C.
Melbourne, Hobart and Adelaide had well below average rainfall for the calendar year 2008, with just 449mm in Melbourne, compared with an average annual rainfall of 652mm.

Hobart received 407mm in 2008 compared with an average of 618mm. Sydney was also slightly below average at 1083 mm, compared with an average of 1213mm.

Brisbane, Perth and Darwin were all wetter than normal.

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,24861809-5009760,00.html

Comments»

1. Paul Pierett - January 4, 2009

It’s still too early to tell. We seem to be in such a hurry to discredit global warming alarmists. We forget that the downside of a sunspot cycle is extended drought, famine, pests and a poorer than poor economy. If we look at the different cycles, we would find the 1964 to 1975 cycle having the same strength as the 1996 to 2007 cycle but the Accumulated Cyclone Energy for the last cycle was much stronger than that of the ’64 to ’75. This was probably due to having strong cycles from 1976 to 1995.

During the 1970s, Florida lake levels dropped in part to the decrease in hurricanes and named storms. By the end of this cycle, in 1979, Polar Region Ice had its greatest growth known to man for a very poor reason. No one was looking. Here in the USA, we are more concerned with hurricanes hitting the shoreline than glacier growth. They balance each other. There is not much difference between having a strong hurricane season and a growing glacier. I believe there is about 60 degrees of constant temperature between the two.

This confirms the debate of CO2. If we didn’t have CO2, our annual climate change would be in constant flux. We can give a great deal of credit to CO2 for delaying this in extreme terms up to 14 years. It takes about 5 years of this upcoming cycle to see which way we are going. If this cycle doesn’t get front loaded and ends up pan-caking out, we’ll just dig into the 1964 to 1975 stats. We will need about another 100 sunspots over the 1996 to 2007 cycle to match Accumulated Cyclone Energy for that cycle.

In closing, the 2008 had strong enough hurricane season in the Atlantic to warrant concern for this coming year. The Hurricane Tracking Center and CSU were pretty much on the money. I believe that NCU was close third, off by one. Their stats met the normal conditions for the first year of a sunspot cycle and that is ½ hurricanes and ½ tropical storms.

http://www.theledger.com/article/20080402/NEWS/804020527

Now, if you are still praying for an Al Gore downfall, please look at cycles from around 1889 to 1922. There is one year in this area where sunspot activity finally dropped close to today’s number for 2008, but had a series of cooler sunspot cycles unlike 1934 to 2007. There was one storm in 1914, I believe in July, which really counters the August to Sept. push as the sun follows the Atlantic currents southward to the Equator. We are nowhere near that. The annual and winter average temperatures are almost on the average since 1985. It will take about 2 cycles to drop to this measurement to crush the global warming jargon.

A good little book to set you in the right direction is “Through Space and Time” by Sir James Jeans. Look for the figure by Sir Richard Gregory. He did a wonderful research comparing sunspots to the lake levels of Lake Victoria.

We need to further consider that CO2 is saving us. As the earth warms, more CO2 is needed to handle the expansion of topography including our deserts. This means that several groups of topography are expanding and moving north or south of the Equator. Thus, as the Polar Region Ice and glaciers melt, CO2 is released at the Equator. See abstract, “Simulated Sea to Air Flux from 1948 to 2003 Using NCEP Reanalysis Surface Fluxes” by Anne Winguth, Patrick Wetzel and Earnst Maier Reimer.

As the earth cools, CO2 is recaptured by Polar Region ice and glaciers. The earth’s topography also moves back to the equator. It takes about 17,000 years for this to happen. Do you ever wonder why Asia Minor was the cradle of civilization? It was the only place people could live 12,000 years ago.

We have to think that if the sunspot activity drops, glaciers and Polar Ice caps will return. There is less growing season, less food, less rain, less hurricanes and name storms that supplement our water reservoirs over a 14 year period.

Though we may not wish to accept global warming under the context of things that happen under 20,000 feet, that is where the media is at. For those of us who are above the clouds in the Thermosphere, it’s a nice ride.

Most Sincerely,

Paul Pierett


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