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NSIDC issues documentation corrections – WUWT guest post a catalyst December 24, 2008

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NSIDC issues documentation corrections – WUWT guest post a catalyst

From Watts Up with That?, December 24, 2008

– WUWT guest post a catalyst

24 12 2008

You may recall the guest post from Jeff Id of the Air Vent I carried about a week ago called Global Sea Ice Trend Since 1979 – surprising

In that post, a note of correction was issued because that we were led to believe (by Tamino) that the entire post was “invalidated” due to an error in accounting for ice area very near the pole. Both Jeff and I were roundly criticized for “not reading the documentation”, which was one of the more civil criticisms over there at Tamino’s site.

After further investigation It turns out that the error was in NSIDC’s public documentation, and they have issued a correction to it. Even more importantly the correction now affects NSIDC’s own trend graph, and they are considering how to handle it.

This episode illustrates how citizen science can be useful. Sometimes people too close to the science they publish can make mistakes, (we’ve all been there) which is why peer review of papers is important.  But “web review” in this day and age of instant publication is equally important.  It also illustrates how mistakes, however embarrassing initially, can be useful if you learn from them and study the cause.  There is no shame in mistakes if they are corrected and you learn from them.  But, the blogospheric noise of angry and sometimes juvenile criticism (on both sides) really isn’t useful as it often masks the real issue. The key is to put that aside and find the truth behind the error. Jeff has done that. His update follows below.

Merry Christmas to everyone!  – Anthony

Based on The Air Vent post carried by Watts Up With That, the National Snow Ice Data Center has issued several corrections to the documentation of their sea ice area time series.Guest post by Jeff ID

Most will remember my earlier post which plotted global sea ice trends. After initially concluding that the global ice level wasn’t decreasing measurably Tamino pointed out a problem in my analysis. After issuing my corrections, thanks and apologies to Tamino and the um…..thousands of readers of Watts Up With That, I went back to work investigating what was really happening to the ice area time series.

It was actually quite lucky that Tamino mentioned the step in the data and criticized me for not reading carefully (something which was mentioned in several comments on the various threads). When I first learned of it, I found the criticism was based on an entirely different set of ice area data with different source documentation. Still, I checked closely and found the tiny step in the time series and was convinced that I had missed something. I had spent a huge amount of time learning the data before I made my post so it was frustrating to say the least. Understand, I used several resources to check my work; not the least of which was the National Snow Ice Data Center (NSIDC) anomaly graph which has the same shape as the one I generated.

The first graph below is from the NSIDC website, the second is my calc. Differences in the noise between the two are explained by the daily resolution used in my graph compared to what my eyes tell me must be monthly data for their plot. They also seem to have an additional year (2007) in their data plot which is not available in the bootstrap time series I used.

Read the rest click link below



Polar Albedo Feedback December 23, 2008

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Polar Albedo Feedback

From Watts Up With That, December 20, 2008

by Steven Goddard

Today is a day of note in Antarctic.  The sun has reached it’s highest point in the sky, and never sets.  The amount of incoming solar radiation is at it’s peak for the year, and the radiation balance is strongly affected by the reflectivity (albedo) of the surface.  Open ocean absorbs much of the the sunlight, whereas ice reflects it back out into space.One of the most popular global warming feedbacks is considered to be changes in the extent of polar ice.  The story goes that as the ice melts, more heat gets absorbed in the ocean, leading to higher temperatures.  Today we test that theory.

According to NSIDC, Antarctic ice extent is nearly 20% above normal, as seen in the graph and map below.


Read the rest, click here

95,000 Excess U.S. Deaths during the Cold Months Each Year December 23, 2008

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95,000 Excess U.S. Deaths during the Cold Months Each Year

From Watts Up with That?, December 22, 2008

Guest post by Indur Goklany

Now that the cold weather is here, we should remember that more Americans die during the cold months than at any other time of year, notwithstanding any global warming.

The figure below, which is based on data from the US National Center for Health Statistics for 2001-2007, shows that on average 7,200 Americans die each day during the months of December, January, February and March, compared to the average 6,400 who die daily during the rest of the year. On this basis, there were 95,000 “excess” deaths during the 121 days in the cold months (December to March, assuming a non-leap year).

So bundle up if you go outside, and keep warm indoors as well.

Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays.


Figure 1: Average daily deaths for each month, United States, 2001-2007. Sources: 2001-2004 data from National Center for Health Statistics, DataWarehouse at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/datawh/statab/unpubd/mortabs/gmwkIV_10.htm, and National Vital Statistics Reports available at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/pubs/pubd/nvsr/nvsr.htm; 2005 data from Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: Provisional Data for 2006, Volume 55, Number 20. 6 pp. (PHS) 2007-1120; 2006-2007 data from Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: Provisional Data for 2007.  NVSR Volume 56, Number 21. 6 pp. (PHS) 2008-1120.


Scepticism grows December 22, 2008

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Scepticism grows

From the Andrew Bolt Blog, December 23, 2008

There is a boom in interest in the blog of Anthony Watts, man-made global warming sceptic, Rightly so. Bookmark it, too.


Global warming makes it too COLD to enjoy Aspen Ski slopes December 21, 2008

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Global warming makes it too COLD to enjoy Aspen Ski slopes

ASPEN — The snow in Aspen just keeps on coming, but it may be too cold to enjoy it by Saturday.

A winter storm that dumped up to a foot of snow on local ski slopes over the past two days has moved out, but another system is headed for Aspen Friday night. So are plummeting temperatures and a brutal wind chill.

Read it here

Mr Obama, if you have the urge to bankrupt an industry, why not bankrupt Big Tobacco instead of Big Coal? December 20, 2008

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Mr Obama, if you have the urge to bankrupt an industry, why not bankrupt Big Tobacco instead of Big Coal?

Dear Mr Obama

I was very surprised to learn recently that you had suggested bankrupting coal plants and that you wanted to declare carbon dioxide a dangerous pollutant. Not only is carbon dioxide not a pollutant, but without it life on earth would cease to exit.

I found it rather ironic that you are a smoker, who spends money on purposefully inhaling carcinogenic substances and yet you want declare c02 a dangerous pollutant and bankrupt coal plants. Is it wise to bankrupt the coal industry when the USA is experiencing one of its coldest winters this century?

Climate changes, always has and always will. Whilst it may make you feel all warm and fuzzy thinking that by bankrupting Coal plants you will save the polar bears, this is simply not true. This year may end up to be the coldest year this century and yet c02 levels are at a record high. Something else is driving the climate.

I suggest you plot a temperature graph and look at the data yourself  instead of taking advice from Al Gore, who is profiting quite nicely from his unnecessary scaremongering. The world is no warmer today than it was in 1998. That doesn’t sound like catastrophic global warming. Natural forces  clearly have had a larger impact on the climate than human c02.

Whilst you and your fellow smokers may think it is your right to suicide by lung cancer, the fact is that smokers affect those around them too.

Some of the environmental impacts of cigarette butts:

-Cigarette butts lying in the streets and gutters are carried via stormwater directly into  harbors, beaches and rivers.
-Cigarette butts can take up to 12 months to break down in freshwater and up to 5 years to break down in seawater.
-Littered butts seriously reduce the aesthetic quality of any environment.
-Butts have been found in the stomachs of young birds, sea turtles and other marine creatures.

The science is settled and the debate is over. Tobacco smoke contains around 4,000 chemicals, made up of particles and gases, about 60 of which are known to cause cancer. Smoking causes lung cancer and other nasty diseases and is incredibly bad for the environment.

Smoking kills 5.4 million people per year. That’s like one jumbo jet going down every hour. The time to act is now. Do it for yourself and your wife and kids so that they will have a husband and father who will live longer to be with them.

You have the power to ban/bankrupt one of the world’s leading killers.


Record high levels of Co2 unable to stop record cold! December 19, 2008

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USA Temperature Records:

Record Events for Fri Dec 12, 2008 through Thu Dec 18, 2008
Total Records: 3733
Rainfall: 952
Snowfall: 768
High Temperatures: 241
Low Temperatures: 326
Lowest Max Temperatures: 1154
Highest Min Temperatures: 292

From Global Freeze:

CNN Meteorologist: Manmade Global Warming Theory ‘Arrogant’ December 19, 2008

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CNN Meteorologist: Manmade Global Warming Theory ‘Arrogant’

Network’s second meteorologist to challenge notion man can alter climate.

By Jeff Poor
Business & Media Institute
12/18/2008 11:02:44 PM

Unprecedented snow in Las Vegas has some scratching their heads – how can there be global warming with this unusual cold and snowy weather?

CNN Meteorologist Chad Myers had never bought into the notion that man can alter the climate and the Vegas snowstorm didn’t impact his opinion. Myers, an American Meteorological Society certified meteorologist, explained on CNN’s Dec. 18 “Lou Dobbs Tonight” that the whole idea is arrogant and mankind was in danger of dying from other natural events more so than global warming.

“You know, to think that we could affect weather all that much is pretty arrogant,” Myers said. “Mother Nature is so big, the world is so big, the oceans are so big – I think we’re going to die from a lack of fresh water or we’re going to die from ocean acidification before we die from global warming, for sure.”

Myers is the second CNN meteorologist to challenge the global warming conventions common in the media. He also said trying to determine patterns occurring in the climate would be difficult based on such a short span.

“But this is like, you know you said – in your career – my career has been 22 years long,” Myers said. “That’s a good career in TV, but talking about climate – it’s like having a car for three days and saying, ‘This is a great car.’ Well, yeah – it was for three days, but maybe in days five, six and seven it won’t be so good. And that’s what we’re doing here.”

“We have 100 years worth of data, not millions of years that the world’s been around,” Myers continued.

Dr. Jay Lehr, an expert on environmental policy, told “Lou Dobbs Tonight” viewers you can detect subtle patterns over recorded history, but that dates back to the 13th Century.

“If we go back really, in recorded human history, in the 13th Century, we were probably 7 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than we are now and it was a very prosperous time for mankind,” Lehr said. “If go back to the Revolutionary War 300 years ago, it was very, very cold. We’ve been warming out of that cold spell from the Revolutionary War period and now we’re back into a cooling cycle.”

Lehr suggested the earth is presently entering a cooling cycle – a result of nature, not man.

“The last 10 years have been quite cool,” Lehr continued. “And right now, I think we’re going into cooling rather than warming and that should be a much greater concern for humankind. But, all we can do is adapt. It is the sun that does it, not man.”

Lehr is a senior fellow and science director of The Heartland Institute, an organization that will be holding the 2009 International Conference on Climate Change in New York March 8-10.

Another CNN meteorologist attacked the concept that man is somehow responsible for changes in climate last year. Rob Marciano charged Al Gore’s 2006 movie, “An Inconvenient Truth,” had some inaccuracies.

“There are definitely some inaccuracies,” Marciano said during the Oct. 4, 2007 broadcast of CNN’s “American Morning.” “The biggest thing I have a problem with is this implication that Katrina was caused by global warming.”

Marciano also said that, “global warming does not conclusively cause stronger hurricanes like we’ve seen,” pointing out that “by the end of this century we might get about a 5 percent increase.”

His comments drew a strong response and he recanted the next day saying “the globe is getting warmer and humans are the likely the main cause of it.”


The 10 worst warming predictions December 18, 2008

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The 10 worst warming predictions
Andrew Bolt
Friday, December 19, 2008 at 12:16am

GLOBAL warming preachers have had a shocking 2008. So many of their predictions this year went splat.

Here’s their problem: they’ve been scaring us for so long that it’s now possible to check if things are turning out as hot as they warned.

And good news! I bring you Christmas cheer – the top 10 warming predictions to hit the wall this year.

Read, so you can end 2008 with optimism, knowing this Christmas won’t be the last for you, the planet or even the polar bears.


TIM Flannery, an expert in bones, has made a fortune from books and lectures warning that we face global warming doom. He scared us so well that we last year made him Australian of the Year.

In March, Flannery said: “The water problem is so severe for Adelaide that it may run out of water by early 2009.”

In fact, Adelaide’s reservoirs are now 75 per cent full, just weeks from 2009.

In June last year, Flannery warned Brisbane’s “water supplies are so low they need desalinated water urgently, possibly in as little as 18 months”.

In fact, 18 months later, its dams are 46 per cent full after Brisbane’s wettest spring in 27 years.

In 2005, Flannery predicted Sydney’s dams could be dry in just two years.

In fact, three years later its dams are 63 per cent full, not least because June last year was its wettest since 1951.

In 2004, Flannery said global warming would cause such droughts that “there is a fair chance Perth will be the 21st century’s first ghost metropolis”.

In fact, Perth now has the lowest water restrictions of any state capital, thanks to its desalination plant and dams that are 40 per cent full after the city’s wettest November in 17 years.

Lesson: This truly is a land “of drought and flooding rains”. Distrust a professional panic merchant who predicts the first but ignores the second.


PROFESSOR Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, of Queensland University, is Australia’s most quoted reef expert.

He’s advised business, green and government groups, and won our rich Eureka Prize for scares about the Great Barrier Reef. He’s chaired a $20 million global warming study of the World Bank.

In 1999, Hoegh-Guldberg warned that the Great Barrier Reef was under pressure from global warming, and much of it had turned white.

In fact,
he later admitted the reef had made a “surprising” recovery.

In 2006, he warned high temperatures meant “between 30 and 40 per cent of coral on Queensland’s great Barrier Reef could die within a month”.

In fact, he later admitted this bleaching had “a minimal impact”.

In 2007, he warned that temperature changes of the kind caused by global warming were again bleaching the reef.

In fact, the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network last week said there had been no big damage to the reef caused by climate change in the four years since its last report, and veteran diver Ben Cropp said this week that in 50 years he’d seen none at all.

Lesson: Reefs adapt, like so much of nature. Learn again that scares make big headlines and bigger careers.

IN April this year, the papers were full of warnings the Arctic ice could all melt.

“We’re actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time,” claimed Dr David Barber, of Manitoba University, ignoring the many earlier times the Pole has been ice free.

“It’s hard to see how the system may bounce back (this year),” fretted Dr Ignatius Rigor, of Washington University’s polar science centre.

Tim Flannery also warned “this may be the Arctic’s first ice-free year”, and the ABC and Age got reporter Marian Wilkinson to go stare at the ice and wail: “Here you can see climate change happening before your eyes.”

In fact, the Arctic’s ice cover this year was almost 10 per cent above last year’s great low, and has refrozen rapidly since. Meanwhile, sea ice in the Southern Hemisphere has been increasing. Been told either cool fact?

Yet Barber is again in the news this month, predicting an ice-free Arctic now in six years. Did anyone ask him how he got his last prediction wrong?

Lesson: The media prefers hot scares to cool truths. And it rarely holds its pet scaremongers to account.

AL Gore sold his scary global warming film, An Inconvenient Truth, shown in almost every school in the country, with a poster of a terrible hurricane.

Former US president Bill Clinton later gloated: “It is now generally recognised that while Al Gore and I were ridiculed, we were right about global warming. . . It’s going to lead to more hurricanes.”

In fact, there is still no proof of a link between any warming and hurricanes.

Australia is actually getting fewer cyclones, and last month researchers at Florida State University concluded that the 2007 and 2008 hurricane seasons had the least tropical activity in the Northern Hemisphere in 30 years.

Lesson: Beware of politicians riding the warming bandwagon.

ROSS Garnaut, a professor of economics, is the guru behind the Rudd Government’s global warming policies.

He this year defended the ugly curved steel roof he’d planned at the rear of his city property, telling angry locals he was protecting himself from climate change: “Severe and more frequent hailstones will be a feature of this change,” he said.

In fact, even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change admits “decreases in hail frequency are simulated for Melbourne. . .”

Lesson: Beware also of government advisers on that warming wagon.

A BAD ski season three years ago – right after a great one – had The Age and other alarmists blaming global warming. The CSIRO, once our top science body, fanned the fear by claiming resorts such as Mt Hotham and Mt Buller could lose a quarter of their snow by 2020.

In fact, this year was another boom one for skiing, with Mt Hotham and Mt Buller covered in snow five weeks before the season started.

What’s more, a study this year in the Hydrological Sciences Journal checked six climate models, including one used by the CSIRO.

It found they couldn’t even predict the regional climate we’d had already: “Local model projections cannot be credible . . .”

It also confirmed the finding of a study last year in the International Journal of Climatology that the 22 most cited global warming models could not “accurately explain the (global) climate from the recent past”.

As for predicting the future. . .


Cooler Year on a Cooling Planet December 18, 2008

Posted by honestclimate in Global Cooling.
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Cooler Year on a Cooling Planet

Dr. Don Easterbrook

Dr. Don Easterbrook

By Dr. Don Easterbrook

In a story on the New York Times, Andy Revkin used Hansen’s global temperature plot to blog “Cooler Year on a Warming Planet”.

A better title would have been “A cooler year on a cooling planet.” The Pacific Decadal Oscillation switched from its warm mode (1977-1998) to its cool mode in 1999 and we’ve had global cooling since. Each time this has happened in the past 100 years we�ve had three decades of cool global climate. We switched from the Pacific cool mode to the warm mode in 1977 (The Great Climate Shift) and that ended in 1998 with the switch to the Pacific cool mode. We’re going to have three decades of global cooling, just like we�ve always had when this happens. CO2 has nothing to do with it.

See larger image here.

We’ve been doing this for hundreds of years, long before atmosphere CO2 increased from human emissions. The isotope record from the Greenland ice core (see below) confirms the 25-30 years oscillating pattern between warm and cool. We are right on schedule for 30 years of global cooling.

See larger image here.

Download pdf of this post here.