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Take the greenhouse gasbags with a grain of salt October 14, 2008

Posted by honestclimate in Discussions.
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Take the greenhouse gasbags with a grain of salt

Bjorn Lomberg

Bjorn Lomberg

By Bjorn Lomborg

From The Australian, October 15, 2008

HAVE you noticed how environmental campaigners almost inevitably say that not only is global warming happening and bad, but also that what we are seeing is even worse than expected?

This is odd, because any reasonable understanding of how science proceeds would expect that, as we refine our knowledge, we find that things are sometimes worse and sometimes better than we expected, and that the most likely distribution would be about 50-50. Environmental campaigners, however, almost invariably see it as 100-0.

If we are regularly being surprised in just one direction, if our models get blindsided by an ever-worsening reality, that does not bode well for our scientific approach.

Indeed, one can argue that if the models constantly get something wrong, it is probably because the models are wrong. And if we cannot trust our models, we cannot know what policy action to take if we want to make a difference.

Read the rest of the article, click below link

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24497983-7583,00.html

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