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Will the Real Hockey Stick Please Stand Up? October 12, 2008

Posted by honestclimate in Discussions.
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Will the Real Hockey Stick Please Stand Up?

From the Air Vent Blog, October 11, 2008

I won’ t abuse you with my venting today. Mostly pictures. Pretty interesting ones I think.

I used the CPS method today with actual proxies from M08. Instead of the infilled data with the fake hockey stick glued on the end I used the original original 1357 series before processing. I also chopped off the 95 Luterbacher series which aren’t really proxies, they are temperature. It didn’t make any big difference to the shape of graphs in my results but I don’t like em.

There are more pre-deletion Luterbacher series in this data set because they were re-scrambled from 95 into 71 series for M08 most likely using RegEm according to their locations. I previously did a software pattern match for the original 89 Luter to the final 71 and found no match, yet the average was the same.

Anyway, to the fun. I used M08 CPS and r correlation to scale and sort data according to different trends. The point of this article is to show you can produce any trend you want from this method. ANYTHING!

The red line is the temperature trend I am claiming in each graph was true. The blue is the CPS algorithm temperature reconstruction. Since the big claim in M08 was the percentage of series which passed correlation 484 of 1209 take a look at the Percent used in the graphs below.

200 year Hockey stick

Read the rest of the article, click below link

http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2008/10/11/will-the-real-hockey-stick-please-stand-up

See also: Building a “Hockey” stick

http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2008/10/12/building-a-hokey-stick

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