It’s the Sun, Stupid! March 5, 2009
Posted by honestclimate in sunspots.Tags: climate change, global warming, solar, sun, sunspots
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It’s the Sun, Stupid!
Posted on ICECAP
By Dr. Willie Soon
The theory that climate change is chiefly caused by solar influences “is no longer tenable,” says US National Academy of Sciences president Ralph Cicerone. Carbon dioxide, he argues, is the key driver of recent climate change. I beg to differ. The amount and distribution of solar energy that we receive varies as the Earth revolves around the Sun and also in response to changes in the Sun’s activity. Scientists have now been studying solar influences on climate for 5000 years.
Chinese imperial astronomers kept detailed sunspot records. They noticed that more sunspots meant warmer weather on Earth. In 1801, the celebrated astronomer William Herschel noticed that when there were few spots, the price of wheat soared – because, he surmised, less “light and heat” from the Sun resulted in reduced harvests.
Is it true then that solar radiation, which supplies Earth with the energy that drives our climate, and caused so many climate shifts over the ages, is no longer the principal influence on climate change? The UN�s climate panel claims there is scientific “consensus” that man-made CO2 emissions are causing
“dangerous” climate change. However, its 2007 Climate Assessment is fraught with serious scientific shortcomings in its discussion of the Sun’s influence on Earth’s climate.
The most recent scientific evidence shows that even small changes in solar radiation have a strong effect on Earth’s temperature and climate. In 2005, I demonstrated a surprisingly strong correlation between solar radiation and temperatures in the Arctic over the past 130 years. Since then, I have demonstrated similar correlations in all the regions surrounding the Arctic, including the US mainland and China. The close relationships between the abrupt ups and downs of solar activity and of temperature that I have identified occur locally in coastal Greenland; regionally in the Arctic Pacific and north Atlantic; and hemispherically for the whole circum-Arctic, suggesting that changes in solar activity drive Arctic and perhaps even global climate.
There is no such match between the steady rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration and the often dramatic ups and downs of surface temperatures in and around the Arctic. I recently discovered direct evidence that changes in solar activity have influenced what has been called the “conveyor-belt” circulation of the great Atlantic Ocean currents over the past 240 years. For instance, solar-driven changes in temperature, and in the volume of freshwater output from the Arctic, cause variations in sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic 5-20 years later.
These previously undocumented results have been published in the journal Physical Geography. They make it difficult to maintain that changes in solar activity play an insignificant role in climate change, especially over the Arctic. The hallmark of good science is the testing of a plausible hypothesis that is then either supported or rejected by the evidence. The evidence in my paper is consistent with the hypothesis that the Sun causes climatic change in
the Arctic. It invalidates the hypothesis that CO2 is a major cause of observed climate change – and raises serious questions about the wisdom of imposing cap-and-trade or other policies that would cripple energy production and economic activity, in the name of “preventing catastrophic climate change.”
Bill Clinton used to sum up politics by saying, “It’s the economy, stupid!” Now we can fairly sum up climate change by saying, “It’s the Sun, stupid!”
Willie Soon is a solar and climate scientist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. This is his personal opinion based upon 18 years of scientific research
Sunspot numbers for February 2009 March 4, 2009
Posted by honestclimate in sunspots.Tags: climate change, global warming, solar, sun, sunspots
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Sunspot numbers for February 2009
| Month | 2009 | 2008 |
| Jan | 1.5 | 3.3 |
| Feb | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Mar | 9.3 | |
| Apr | 2.9 | |
| May | 3.2 | |
| Jun | 3.4 | |
| Jul | 0.5 | |
| Aug | 0.5 | |
| Sep | 1.1 | |
| Oct | 2.9 | |
| Nov | 4.1 | |
| Dec | 0.8 |
First February 2009 Cycle 24 sunspot appears February 25, 2009
Posted by honestclimate in sunspots.Tags: climate change, global warming, solar, sun, sunspots
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First February 2009 Cycle 24 sunspot appears
From SolarCycle24.com
Finally a new Cycle 24 sunspot has appeared high in latitude in the northern hemisphere. It has been numbered 1013. Pictures are below.
We will have to see if this thing decides to grow larger. This ends the spotless streak and is the first Cycle 24 spot since Jan 9th.
New Cycle 24 sunspot
Now well over 30 days without a cycle 24 sunspot February 23, 2009
Posted by honestclimate in sunspots.Tags: climate change, global warming, solar, sun, sunspots
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Now well over 30 days without a cycle 24 sunspot
From Watts Up With That, February 21, 2009
The last time we saw would could have been a cycle 24 sunspot, was on January 20th, 2009, but it was an oddball, and not clearly part of cycle 23 or 24. Spaceweather.com wrote that day:
A new sunspot [1011] is emerging inside the circle region–and it is a strange one. The low latitude of the spot suggests it is a member of old Solar Cycle 23, yet the magnetic polarity of the spot is ambiguous, identifying it with neither old Solar Cycle 23 nor new Solar Cycle 24. Stay tuned for updates as the sunspot grows.
The last time we had a true cycle 24 spot was on January 10th thru the 13th, with sunspot 1010, which had both the correct polarity and a high latitude characteristic of a cycle 24 spot. But since then no other cycle 24 spots have emerged.
It has been slow going for cycle 24.
We did have a single cycle 23 spot in February as you can see from the SWPC sunspots data, but it has been dead quiet on all other solar activity indices:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/02/21/now-well-over-30-days-without-a-cycle-24-sunspot
Shock, horror as Wikipedia turns Denier! February 15, 2009
Posted by honestclimate in sunspots.Tags: climate change, global warming, solar, sun, sunspots, wikipedia
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Shock, horror as Wikipedia turns Denier!
By the blogowner, honestclimate, February 15, 2009
A climate realist article from Wikipedia on the sun
Here are some excepts:
Energy from the Sun, in the form of sunlight, supports almost all life on Earth via photosynthesis,[10] and drives the Earth’s climate and weather.
and reading further along..
The solar cycle has a great influence on space weather, and is a significant influence on the Earth’s climate since luminosity has a direct relationship with magnetic activity. Solar activity minima tend to be correlated with colder temperatures, and longer than average solar cycles tend to be correlated with hotter temperatures. In the 17th century, the solar cycle appears to have stopped entirely for several decades; very few sunspots were observed during this period. During this era, which is known as the Maunder minimum or Little Ice Age, Europe experienced very cold temperatures.[58] Earlier extended minima have been discovered through analysis of tree rings and also appear to have coincided with lower-than-average global temperatures.
The sun, a major driver of the earth’s climate? Surely not!
Wikipedia, you Climate Heretic/Holocaust Denier/Clearly in the pay of Big Oil!
Read the full article here, but be quick, I imagine it’s only a matter of time before it gets changed.
January 2009 sunspot is forming! January 10, 2009
Posted by honestclimate in sunspots.Tags: climate change, global warming, solar, sun, sunspots
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January 2009 sunspot is forming!
From SolarCycle24.com
Update: 12 January 2009: The sunspot is fading fast!
Click here for all the latest sunspot news
December 2008 Sunspot Numbers January 10, 2009
Posted by honestclimate in sunspots.Tags: climate change, global warming, solar, sun, sunspots
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December 2008 Sunspot Numbers
By the blogowner, honestclimate, January 10, 2009
| Year | 2008 |
| Jan | 3.3 |
| Feb | 2.1 |
| Mar | 9.3 |
| Apr | 2.9 |
| May | 3.2 |
| Jun | 3.4 |
| Jul | 0.5 |
| Aug | 0.5 |
| Sep | 1.1 |
| Oct | 2.9 |
| Nov | 4.1 |
| Dec | 0.8 |
Even quieter on the solar front – another “all quiet alert” issued December 15, 2008
Posted by honestclimate in sunspots.Tags: climate change, global warming, solar, sunspots
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Even quieter on the solar front – another “all quiet alert” issued
From Watts Up with That? December 14, 2008
The Sun today
Solar cycle 24 still getting a slow and very delayed start. This is the third one of these (that I know of) this past year.
From SIDC (Solar Influences Data analysis Center) in Belgium: http://sidc.oma.be/products/quieta/
:Issued: 2008 Dec 14 1156 UTCroduct: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/quieta #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # From the SIDC (RWC-Belgium): "ALL QUIET" ALERT # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# START OF ALL QUIET ALERT ....................... The SIDC - RWC Belgium expects quiet Space Weather conditions for the next 48 hours or until further notice. This implies that: * the solar X-ray output is expected to remain below C-class level, * the K_p index is expected to remain below 5, * the high-energy proton fluxes are expected to remain below the event threshold. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# (h/t to sunspotter)
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/12/14/even-quieter-on-the-solar-front-another-all-quiet-alert-issued
Sunspots Spell End of Climate Myth November 15, 2008
Posted by honestclimate in sunspots.Tags: climate change, Global Cooling, global warming, solar, sun, sunspots
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Sunspots Spell End of Climate Myth
From ICECAP, November 14, 2008
The Dominion Post
It is disturbing that many recent statements on climate change by influential people are not supported by hard evidence. For instance, Professor Ralph Chapman’s statement that the globe risks a tipping point if emissions are not reduced by 2015 is unsupported by hard evidence, as is David Parker’s claim that if we do nothing to reduce emissions, New Zealand could be up to $500 million worse off by 2012.
This is not true because, if we adopt the Emissions Trading Scheme, electricity bills alone will increase by more than $500 million each year.
These statements and government policies on greenhouse gases, carbon trading and promoting renewable energy are based on the beliefs that the world is warming due to man-made greenhouse gases; that promoting renewable energy will make a substantial difference to New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions; and that if New Zealand reduces its greenhouse gas emissions it would affect the world climate. All these beliefs are not true.
The evidence is unequivocal. Measurable, let alone dangerous, manmade global warming is not happening, and is not likely to happen in the future. The major cause for concern is the possibility of severe cooling. Global climate has always changed and recent climate changes are not unusual. The world was warmer in the mediaeval warm period, in the Roman warm period and on many occasions before then. During these periods agriculture and civilisations flourished. During cold periods like the little ice age there was famine, plague and war.
Both surface temperature records and the much more accurate records from satellite observations show there was a brief warming period from 1975-98. Since then, the world has cooled and is now at the same temperature it was in 1995. Nobody knows when, or if, world temperatures might increase. Since the research for the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report was completed in mid 2006, researchers have discovered that warming since 1975 is not caused by greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gas warming would be at a maximum 10,000m above the tropics.
Observations from balloons and satellites have shown that warming is not happening. Therefore greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide are not a major factor in the world climate. This fact alone is sufficient to sink the manmade global warming hypothesis. Computer-based climate models provide the only “evidence” supporting claims that the world is warming, that it will be dangerous, that there will be rapid rises in sea levels and the like, yet these same models failed to predict the temperature peak in 1998 and the steady cooling trend that set in from 2002. It is obvious that the models have failed to predict major climatic events such as El Nino (1998) and La Nina (2007-08). The models are not an accurate representation of the world climate system and their input data is inaccurate, therefore their outputs are worthless. This fact alone is sufficient to sink the manmade global warming hypothesis. Read more here.
