Alarmists Still Heated Even As World Cools November 5, 2008
Posted by honestclimate in Global Cooling.Tags: climate change, Global Cooling, global warming
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Alarmists Still Heated Even As World Cools
From INVESTOR’S BUSINESS DAILY, November 4, 2008
Climate Change: It’s been a bad year for global warming alarmists. Record cold periods and snowfalls are occurring around the globe. The hell that the radicals have promised is freezing over.
As the British House of Commons debated a climate-change bill that pledged the United Kingdom to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by 80% by 2050, London was hit by its first October snow since 1922.
Apparently Mother Nature wasn’t paying attention. The British people, however, are paying attention — to reality. A poll found that 60% of them doubt the claims that global warming is both man-made and urgent.
Elsewhere, the Swiss lowlands last month received the most snow for any October since records began. Zurich got 20 centimeters, breaking the record of 14 centimeters set in 1939. Ocala, Fla., experienced its second-lowest October temperature since 1850.
October temperatures fell to record lows in Oregon as well. On Oct. 10, Boise, Idaho, got the earliest snow in its history — 1.7 inches. That beat the old record by seven-tenths of an inch and one day on the calendar.
In the Southern Hemisphere, where winter was winding down, Durban, South Africa, had its coldest September night in history in the middle of the month. Some regions of the country had unusual late-winter snows. A month earlier, New Zealand officials reported that Mount Ruapehu had its largest snow base ever.
At the top of the world, the International Arctic Research Center reported last month, there was 29% more Arctic sea ice this year than last.
None of this matters, of course, to the warming zealots. It doesn’t matter if it’s too dry or too wet, too hot or too cold. All of it, they say, is caused by global warming.
We believe, however, as do many reputable scientists, that the warming and cooling of the Earth is a natural phenomenon dictated by forces beyond our control, from ocean currents to solar activity.
The latest warming trend, which appears to have ended in 1998, is the result of the end of the Little Ice Age, which extended from roughly the 16th century to the 19th. During that period, Muir Glacier in Alaska filled Glacier Bay. In fact, when the first Russian explorers arrived in Alaska in the 1740s, there was no Glacier Bay — just a wall of ice where the entrance would be.
As the Earth warmed, long before SUVs roamed the globe, Alaska’s glaciers also warmed and began to recede, starting in the 1800s. All that may be changing. During the winter and summer of 2007-2008, unusually large amounts of winter snow were followed by unusually cold temperatures in June, July and August.
“In June, I was surprised to see snow still at sea level in Prince William Sound,” says U.S. Geological Survey glaciologist Bruce Molnia. “On the Juneau Icefield, there was still 20 feet of new snow on the surface of the Taku Glacier in late July.”
It was the worst summer he’d seen in two decades.
As the Anchorage Daily News reports, “Never before in the history of a research project dating back to 1946 had the Juneau Icefield witnessed the kind if snow buildup that came this year. It was similar on a lot of other glaciers too.”
It’s been “a long time on most glaciers,” Molnia says, “where they’ve actually had positive mass balance.” In other words, more snow is falling in the winter than melts in the summer, making the glaciers thicker in the middle.
Glaciers can appear to be shrinking even as they are growing. Photos taken from ships can record receding edges even as mass is building inland. When they get thick enough, the weight forces the glacier to advance.
The U.S. may owe its ascension to a global power on the global warming that began with the end of the Little Ice Age, which almost doomed the American Revolution. George Washington’s famous winter at Valley Forge was part of that natural phenomenon.
As the climate warmed from 1800 to 1900, the U.S. tripled in size, spreading westward to straddle a continent. The population of the windy and very cold trading post known as Chicago grew from 4,000 in 1800 to 1.5 million by 1900, sitting on a great lake carved by glaciers long since receded.
Due to a decline in solar activity and other factors, the Earth is cooling and has been since 1998. And a peer-reviewed study published in April by Nature predicts the world will continue cooling at least through 2015.
Now, if only we could get the warming alarmists to face facts and cool it as well.
http://www.investors.com/editorial/editorialcontent.asp?secid=1501&status=article&id=310695037962525
Chilliest November night on record for parts of Tasmania November 5, 2008
Posted by honestclimate in Global Cooling.Tags: climate change, Global Cooling, global warming, tasmania
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Chilliest November night on record for parts of Tasmania
From Weatherzone, November 5, 2008
Towns throughout eastern and central Tasmania experienced one of their coldest November nights on record, according to weatherzone.com.au.
Last night a slim ridge of high pressure brought partly clear skies and light winds to the island state, allowing minimums to dip up to 10 degrees below average in some places, particularly the highlands.
Bushy Park, in central TAS, chilled all the way down to minus one overnight, nine below average and the coldest November night in 70 years of records. It was also the coldest night in two months.
Closer to the coast, Cape Grim had its coldest November night in 12 years of records, dipping to four degrees.
Thankfully, tonight looks to be a little bit warmer as cloud cover builds again, but should still see minimums stay a few degrees below the November average.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/chilliest-november-night-on-record-for-parts-of-tas/10199
“Global Warming” Has Stopped November 2, 2008
Posted by honestclimate in Global Cooling, Temperature.Tags: climate change, Global Cooling, global warming, lord monckton
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“Global Warming” Has Stopped
Lord Monckton
From ICECAP, October 31, 2008
By Lord Monckton
In a blog post, Bill Chameides says “global warming” is still happening. It isn’t. As the global temperature graph below shows, all four of the world’s major global surface temperature datasets (NASA GISS; RSS; UAH; and Hadley/University of East Anglia) show a decline in temperatures that have now persisted for seven years.
‘Global warming’? What ‘global warming’? All four of the world’s major surface temperature datasets show seven years of global cooling. The straight lines are the regression lines showing the trend over past seven years. It is decisively downward. Chameides’ graph overleaf appears to have been tampered with to exclude the very rapid cooling that occurred between 2007 (the curve stops in January 2007, when a strong El Nino artificially but temporarily boosted temperatures) and 2008. The fall in temperatures between January 2007 and January 2008, carefully not shown on Chameides’ graph, was the greatest January-January fall since records began in 1880.
See larger image here
The UAH graph provides a complete answer to the Chameides’ attempt to suggest that skeptics” are confusing short-term and longer-term temperature changes. The year 2008 will turn out to have been no warmer than 1980 � 28 years ago. This is not a short-run change: the cooling trend set in as far back as late 2001, seven full years ago, and there has been no net warming since 1995 on any measure. Next, Chameides attempts to suggest that the recent cooling is caused by solar activity. He could well be right – however, if so, by the same token the warming that stopped in 1998 could also have been caused by solar activity – there was, after all, a solar Grand Maximum in the last 70 years of the 20th century, during which the sun was more active and for longer than at almost any previous similar period in the whole of the past 11,400 years.
Scafetta and West (2008) attribute more than two-thirds of the warming of the past 50 years to solar activity – the latest in a series of papers in all parts of the scientific literature that explicitly question the exaggerated estimates of climate sensitivity`perpetrated by the IPCC. Chameides’ final, desperate point is that the “green diamonds” he has so carefully selected from the 5-year running-mean graph that he has equally carefully blotted out show continuously-rising temperatures that overlay what he calls the short-term cooling.
Not so. As the first graph above shows, the linear regression not just for the past five years but for the past seven years shows a decisive and continuing cooling. Keenlyside et al. (2008) do not expect a new record year for global temperature to occur until at least 2015. If they are right, then the IPCC’s climate-sensitivity estimates must be – as Monckton (2008) finds them to be – prodigious exaggerations. False data will no longer convince any impartial mind to believe in the fantasy of anthropogenic “global warming”?
See larger image here
Tibet’s ‘worst snowstorm ever’, 7 killed November 1, 2008
Posted by honestclimate in Global Cooling.Tags: climate change, Global Cooling, global warming
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Tibet’s ‘worst snowstorm ever’, 7 killed
From Watts Up With That, October 31, 2008
More harbinger of the Northern Hemisphere winter to come?
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A bulldozer cleans snow on the Sichuan-Tibet road in Nyingchi, southwest China’s Tibet Autonomous Region Oct. 30, 2008. (Xinhua Photo) |
LHASA, Oct. 30 (Xinhua) — The death toll has risen to seven, and one person remains missing, as a result of the worst snowstorm on record in Tibet, local authorities said Thursday.
The seven people killed either frozen to death or were crushed by collapsing buildings. About 144,400 heads of livestock died in the storm, which also knocked out telecommunications and traffic in parts of Shannan prefecture.
In Lhunze County, 1,348 people stranded by damaged buildings or blocked roads had been rescued, the county government said. Rescue operation for the remaining 289 trapped was still underway.
The worst-hit county had 36 consecutive hours of snowfall from Sunday, with an average snow coverage of 1.5 meters. Four people died and one remained missing in the snowstorm.
The rescued people have been moved to other villages, sleeping in schools or government buildings.
A road linking Lhunze to Cuona County reopened on Thursday after 63 hours of snow clearing efforts of armed policemen and transportation staff.
Cuona had been isolated from the outside for three days due to the road blockage.
The Tibet regional civil affairs department has allocated relief materials such as clothes and tents to the affected areas.
h/t to Dr. Roger Pielke
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/31/tibets-worst-snowstorm-ever-7-killed
Evidence of sunspot involvement in climate change compelling October 31, 2008
Posted by honestclimate in sunspots.Tags: climate change, Global Cooling, global warming, sunspots
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Evidence of sunspot involvement in climate change compelling
Dr Kelvin Kemm
By Dr Kelvin Kemm
From Engineering News, October 31, 2008
Briefly, the mechanism is that cosmic rays impact on the earth from deep space. These cosmic rays penetrate our atmosphere and lead to the formation of cloud cover. The cosmic rays nucleate sites in the atmosphere, from which clouds form from the natural water vapour.
If one puts a spoonful of coffee powder into a cup of microwaved water, the water forms bubbles of foam on the coffee grains. This is basically the same principle as the cosmic rays forming clouds in the atmosphere.
The earth’s magnetic field, which acts as a shielding, is altered by the sun’s activity, which, in turn, is indicated by means of the number of sunspots. As the earth’s magnetic shield varies, so the cloud cover varies. Few sunspots mean a weaker earth shield, which means more cosmic rays, which mean more clouds, which mean a cooling earth.
The correlation for this effect, going back thousands of years, is good, remarkably so. Scientifically, this looks believable, and it is consistent with the theory and observation.
In contrast, the argument that man-made carbon dioxide (CO2) is causing warming does not fit the facts at all. Firstly, there was no indus- trial CO2 produced in vast quanti- ties when the Roman Warming period occurred, or when the Medieval Warming period occurred. Both are well documented in various archives, such as the historical and archaeological.
But there is more – global warming is extremely complex, and it is really naïve to believe that a relatively simple theory will explain it satisfactorily. It is far too simple just to say: CO2 traps heat and, therefore, more CO2 means more heat, and so we have global warming.
As the makers of heat-seeking missiles know very well, the CO2 in the atmosphere has ‘windows’ in it. This means that certain ‘heat frequencies’ pass through the atmosphere easily but other frequencies are trapped. It is these windows that the missile uses to hunt its prey. As a consequence, there are ‘frequency bands’ related to the CO2 cover of the earth. In various ‘bands’, the infrared passes through easily, or not so easily.
Further, CO2 can trap incoming heat from space and outgoing heat being radiated from the earth. The frequency bands linked to the CO2 also become saturated – they cannot just keep sucking up more and more heat. Essentially, this CO2 argument is very complex.
Over the last century, the temperature changes in our planet’s atmosphere, let alone ground and sea, just do not match the atmospheric CO2 concentration at all. This is cause for warning bells that, perhaps, this whole CO2 argument is not correct.
In comparison, the cosmic ray and sunspot information match well. However, as I have said, this whole atmospheric temperature issue is very complex, and no capable scientist in the field is going to say otherwise.
Right now, we have been experi- encing a rather long period of sunspot inactivity on our sun, some 200 days plus. This has happened before.
Formal sun- spot data collection started in 1749 and has been monitored ever since. But long before that date, sunspots were known and informal measurements were taken. It is, therefore, known that the Little Ice Age, which took place from the midseventeenth century to the eighteenth century, was preceded and paralleled by a period of some 50 years with a virtual absence of sunspots, according to informal records.
In more recent times, we have had relatively long periods without sunspots. This year, we passed the mark of 200 days without sunspots, which is unusual. In fact, the sun has been blanker now than in any other year since 1954, when it was spotless for 241 days, and this year is now being called the sun’s quietest year of the space age.
The sun was also very quiet in 1913, so runs of 200-plus spotless days are rare, but not that rare. As I have already said, the global warming and cooling issue is complex, and so a run of 200-plus days without sunspots cannot be compared to a 50-year quiet period during the Little Ice Age, but it is cause for some scientific thinking.
Further, a cooling that could be initiated by a lack of sunspots will induce other climatic effects that will either favour warming or cooling. The jury is still out on exactly what happens, but the evidence for sunspot involvement in climate change is just too compelling for it to be brushed aside by those who want to cling to the simplistic idea that man-made CO2 is the only factor.
News Reports for October Indicate Global Cooling October 31, 2008
Posted by honestclimate in Global Cooling.Tags: climate change, Global Cooling, global warming
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News Reports for October Indicate Global Cooling
From the Jennifer Marohasy Blog, October 31, 2008
Following are 12 pages of sampling of news reports from the US and around the world for October 2008, via Marc Morano in Washington, providing some anecdotal evidence that global warming has perhaps stalled:
Delayed World Series raises anger after frigid weather – Sportswriter. October 29, 2008. Excerpt: Al Gore is full of crap. The predictor of global-warming doom and gloom is way off base, at least in late October in frigid eastern Pennsylvania. Consider that when Major League Baseball called off its first makeup date of the suspended Game 5 early yesterday, the weather conditions were far worse than they had been Monday. Rescheduled again for tonight at 8, the forecast is also bad. A cold rain continued all day yesterday with up to 30 centimetres of snow reported…” http://www.thestar.com/Sports/article/526445
Cold spring, summer stunts apple production in Washington State – October 27, 2008. Excerpt: As the apple season wraps up in Whatcom County, some local orchardists are having to cope with lower yields caused by a cold spring and summer. “The quality is there, however, there’s going to be a lot (of apples) left hanging on the tree that we can normally pick” because they won’t ripen in time, said Dorie Belisle. http://www.bellinghamherald.com/602/story/628109.html
Arctic sea ice almost 2 million square kilometers higher than a year ago – Physicist Dr. Lubos Motl. Excerpt: The total Arctic sea ice area is currently almost 2 million square kilometers higher than one year ago. It is near normal for the end of October. http://motls.blogspot.com/2008/10/snow-in-london-freezing-florida.html
Brrr. – Obama to global warming demonstrators: ‘This is probably not the weather to hold up those signs…it’s a little chilly today’ – October 28, 2008. Excerpt: Obama paid tribute to thousands of hardy supporters who turned out for a rally in Chester, Pennsylvania despite the bone-chilling rain and driving winds. [...] A little bit of rain never hurt anybody,” Obama said, “although I’ve got to say I saw (Pennsylvania Governor) Ed Rendell back stage and his teeth were chattering. “This is an unbelievable crowd for this kind of weather,” he added, gently ribbing some supporters for holding up signs saying “stop global warming.” “This is probably not the weather to hold up those signs. I’m not into global warming either but it’s a little chilly today.” http://www.spacedaily.com/2006/081028141942.0hrwev3w.html
Global Cooling is Here! Evidence for Predicting Global Cooling for the Next Three Decades October 31, 2008
Posted by honestclimate in Global Cooling.Tags: climate change, Dr Don Easterbrook, Global Cooling, global warming
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Global Cooling is Here! Evidence for Predicting Global Cooling for the Next Three Decades
Dr. Don Easterbrook
Via ICECAP, October 30, 2008
By Professor Don Easterbrook, Western Washington University
In 2007-2008, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) and computer modelers who believe that CO2 is the cause of global warming still predict the Earth is in store for catastrophic warming in this century. IPCC computer models have predicted global warming of 1F per decade and 5-6C (10-11F) by 2100, which would cause global catastrophe with ramifications for human life, natural habitat, energy and water resources, and food production. All of this is predicated on the assumption that global warming is caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 and that CO2 will continue to rise rapidly.
However, records of past climate changes suggest an altogether different scenario for the 21st century. Rather than drastic global warming at a rate of 0.5C (1F) per decade, historic records of past natural cycles suggest global cooling for the first several decades of the 21st century to about 2030, followed by global warming from about 2030 to about 2060, and renewed global cooling from 2060 to 2090 (Easterbrook, D.J., 2005, 2006a, b, 2007, 2008a, b); Easterbrook and Kovanen, 2000, 2001). Climatic fuctuations over the past several hundred years suggest ~30 year climatic cycles of global warming and cooling, on a general rising trend from the Little Ice Age.
See larger image here
Now a decade later, the global climate has not warmed 1F as forecast by the IPCC but has cooled slightly until 2007-08 when global temperatures turned sharply downward. In 2008, NASA satellite imagery confirmed that the Pacific Ocean had switched from the warm mode it had been in since 1977 to its cool mode, similar to that of the 1945-1977 global cooling period. The shift strongly suggests that the next several decades will be cooler, not warmer as predicted by the IPCC.
Global temperature projection for the coming century, based on warming/cooling cycles of the past several centuries. ‘A’ projection based on assuming next cool phase will be similar to the 1945-1977 cool phase. ‘B’ projection based on assuming next cool phase will be similar to the 1880-1915 cool phase. The predicted warm cycle from 2030 to 2060 is based on projection of the 1977 to 1998 warm phase and the cooling phase from 2060 to 2090 is based on projection of the 1945 to 1977 cool cycle. See larger image here
Global warming (i.e, the warming since 1977) is over. The minute increase of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere (0.008%) was not the cause of the warming- it was a continuation of natural cycles that occurred over the past 500 years.
The PDO cool mode has replaced the warm mode in the Pacific Ocean, virtually assuring us of about 30 years of global cooling, perhaps much deeper than the global cooling from about 1945 to 1977. Just how much cooler the global climate will be during this cool cycle is uncertain. Recent solar changes suggest that it could be fairly severe, perhaps more like the 1880 to 1915 cool cycle than the more moderate 1945-1977 cool cycle. A more drastic cooling, similar to that during the Dalton and Maunder minimums, could plunge the Earth into another Little Ice Age, but only time will tell if that is likely. Read more here.
Hard lesson about solar realities for NOAA/NASA October 31, 2008
Posted by honestclimate in sunspots.Tags: climate change, Global Cooling, global warming, sunspots
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Hard lesson about solar realities for NOAA / NASA
From Watts Up with That?, October 30, 2008
Hard lesson about solar realities for NOAA / NASA
Reposted here: October 30th, 2008
by Warwick Hughes
The real world sunspot data remaining quiet month after month are mocking the curved red predictions of NOAA and about to slide underneath. Time for a rethink I reckon NOAA !!
Here is my clearer chart showing the misfit between NOAA / NASA prediction and real-world data.
Regular readers might remember that we started posting articles drawing attention to contrasting predictions for Solar Cycle 24, way back on 16 December 2006. Scroll to the start of my solar threads.
Then in March 2007 I posted David Archibald’s pdf article, “The Past and Future of Climate”. Well worth another read now, I would like to see another version of David’s Fig 12 showing where we are now in the transition from Cycle 23 to Cycle 24.
Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Issued April 2007 from NOAA / NASA
Read the rest of the article, click below link
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/30/hard-lesson-about-solar-realities-for-noaa-nasa
Snow blankets London for Global Warming debate – first October Snow in over 70 years October 30, 2008
Posted by honestclimate in Global Cooling.Tags: climate change, Global Cooling, global warming
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Snow blankets London for Global Warming debate – first October Snow in over 70 years
From Watts Up With That?, October 30, 2008
Two Stories for you, one about the snow itself, and the other about climate law being debated and passed in the middle of the unusual snow.- Anthony
London has first October snow in over 70 years
From the Guardian
Cold snap causes flight cancellations while a motorway accident kills one driver and causes severe disruption
Parts of south-east England had more than an inch of snow last night while London experienced its first October snowfall in more than 70 years as winter conditions arrived early.
Snow settled on the ground in parts of the capital last night as temperatures dipped below zero. A Met Office spokeswoman said it was London’s first October snow since 1934.
Read the rest of the article, click link below
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/10/29/snow-blankets-london-for-global-warming-debate-first-october-snow-in-over-70-years
2008 has been a great year for Polar Bears! October 29, 2008
Posted by honestclimate in Global Cooling, Temperature.Tags: arctic, climate change, Global Cooling, global warming, polar bears, Temperature
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2008 has been a great year for Polar Bears!
Chilling
By the blogowner, honestclimate, October 29, 2008
Not only is the world no warmer today than it was in 1998, the decrease in global temperatures in 2008 has been massive. The UK Met Office has said 2008 is set be the coldest year this century(this may well be the only climate prediction they get right!). With record cold temperatures being set around the world and the arctic ice now 30% over last year, it truly has been a great year for polar bears!
