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“Obviously the models they use are not worth a cup full of warm spit” March 2, 2010

Posted by honestclimate in Discussions.
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Huge BoM rain and temperature prediction failures

by Warwick Hughes
Warwick Hughes blog, March 1, 2010

This Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) prediction for summer made on 24 November 2009 has turned out to be so exactly wrong in several aspects. You can see in the BoM Outlook archive It is not only the 24 November prediction that is so wrong – check out their maps of predicted rain percentages published on 21 December, 19 January and there is no learning going on. Check actual rain here, choose 3 months to see summer rain.
BoM failure

The temperature Outlook for summer was just as hopeless but I have not got the time to put all these maps up – you can check against maps you can make here – make maps for 3 months for max and min anomaly, they compare with the BoM max and min temperature prediction maps for summer.
I am at a loss to understand how a well funded org of professionals can repeatedly get these Outlooks so wrong.
Obviously the models they use are not worth a cup full of warm spit.
Australia pays for better and deserves better.

Fore more by Warwick Hughes, click here

$30 million supercomputer announced for Australian Bureau of Meteorology March 20, 2009

Posted by honestclimate in Climate Models.
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$30 million supercomputer announced for Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Weather supercomputer announced for BOM and ANUA

$30 million, four-year project to create Australia’s biggest weather computer is underway.

The new supercomputing system, being built for the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and Australian National University (ANU), will make weather predictions more accurate.

The BOM machine will have the capacity to make about 1.5 trillion complex weather calculations a second as it crunches through weather data from around the country.

It is expected to provide vital information for future firefighting efforts, and will also help predict climate change in the region.

Maybe, just maybe this fancy new supercomputer would help the BoM actually get predictions correct for a change…

I hope the BoM’s new supercomputer will be more useful than the UK Met Office’s prediction system below:

New South Wales Premier Rees says Tamworth was in drought but BoM maps say no drought near Tamworth November 30, 2008

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New South Wales Premier Rees says Tamworth was in drought but BoM maps say no drought near Tamworth

By Warwick Hughes November 29, 2008

Warwick Hughs

Warwick Hughs

This is another of these fascinating cases where top Australian politicians seem unable to get the simple facts of rainfall correct. Is this more evidence of a national delusion where rainfall is concerned ?

Premier Nathan Rees is quoted in the ABC Online news story copied below that Tamworth had “..been drought-stricken for some time..”.

I have just downloaded a series of 7 BoM (Australian Bureau of Meteorology) drought maps for all periods, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 24 and 36 months, see below and there is no sign of drought near Tamworth for those periods.
It is telling that the article refers says, “While the rain has broken the drought, valuable crops have been destroyed, including one of the best winter grain crops in the region for years.” Nobody has the common sense to ask, how could such a good crop be grown in a drought ?

It may well be that the NSW Govt is still paying out drought relief to the Tamworth region years after any drought (maybe pre 36 months ago) has ended. I have been aware for years that the Govt pays out drought relief to areas where actual rain bears no resemblance to that indicated on BoM drought maps, see my 2005 article, “Are Martians growing Australian wheat ?”.

Anyway read on to see the reality of the current BoM drought maps for NSW, click below link
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=185


Weather experts should check rainfall figures before being quoted by the media November 30, 2008

Posted by honestclimate in storms.
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Weather experts should check rainfall figures before being quoted by the media

Warwick Hughs

Warwick Hughs

By Warwick Hughes, November 29, 2008

We have all seen articles such as this from The Australian, “Southeast Queensland storms in line with climate change: weather experts”. The article is referring to storms of 18-20 November and the journalist seems intent on getting his headline despite one of the experts cautioning against reading too much into the storms by saying, “..that a series of events by themselves did not “prove” climate change one way or the other.” Full text copied below.

The real interest for me is not the ridiculous headline but the two experts quoted state that “..November in southeast Queensland had generally been a dry month over the past decade..”.

These experts are University of Southern Queensland professor of climate and water resources Roger Stone and Queensland weather bureau (BoM) spokesman Gavin Holcombe.

Now what are the facts about November rainfall in southeast Queensland over the past decade ? Lets look at November rainfall for central Brisbane and Gatton, home to the Professor’s University, taking November data for the 10 years 1998-2007 and comparing to long term averages for November. We find that for Brisbane and Gatton, the November average 1998-2007 is either very close to or exceeds the long term BoM mean(average). So we see that experts much quoted by the media are not fully in touch with simple realities of rainfall statistics, facts they could check in minutes. Is this more evidence of a national delusion about rainfall in Australia ?

Read the rest click below link

http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=184

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