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“Obviously the models they use are not worth a cup full of warm spit” March 2, 2010

Posted by honestclimate in Discussions.
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Huge BoM rain and temperature prediction failures

by Warwick Hughes
Warwick Hughes blog, March 1, 2010

This Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) prediction for summer made on 24 November 2009 has turned out to be so exactly wrong in several aspects. You can see in the BoM Outlook archive It is not only the 24 November prediction that is so wrong – check out their maps of predicted rain percentages published on 21 December, 19 January and there is no learning going on. Check actual rain here, choose 3 months to see summer rain.
BoM failure

The temperature Outlook for summer was just as hopeless but I have not got the time to put all these maps up – you can check against maps you can make here – make maps for 3 months for max and min anomaly, they compare with the BoM max and min temperature prediction maps for summer.
I am at a loss to understand how a well funded org of professionals can repeatedly get these Outlooks so wrong.
Obviously the models they use are not worth a cup full of warm spit.
Australia pays for better and deserves better.

Fore more by Warwick Hughes, click here

$30 million supercomputer announced for Australian Bureau of Meteorology March 20, 2009

Posted by honestclimate in Climate Models.
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$30 million supercomputer announced for Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Weather supercomputer announced for BOM and ANUA

$30 million, four-year project to create Australia’s biggest weather computer is underway.

The new supercomputing system, being built for the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and Australian National University (ANU), will make weather predictions more accurate.

The BOM machine will have the capacity to make about 1.5 trillion complex weather calculations a second as it crunches through weather data from around the country.

It is expected to provide vital information for future firefighting efforts, and will also help predict climate change in the region.

Maybe, just maybe this fancy new supercomputer would help the BoM actually get predictions correct for a change…

I hope the BoM’s new supercomputer will be more useful than the UK Met Office’s prediction system below:

Beware global warming propaganda of the future: Fast forward to the year 2028 December 17, 2008

Posted by honestclimate in humour.
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Beware global warming propaganda of the future:  Fast forward to the year 2028

By the blogowner, honestclimate, December 17, 2008

Don’t for a minute think that Global Warming has stopped! December 15, 2008

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Don’t for a minute think that Global Warming has stopped!

By the blogowner, honestclimate, December 15, 2008

Glenn Cook from the Western Australian Bureau of Meteorology quoted as saying the below in response to Perth’s cold weather of late:

“Global warming is a slow long term trend and people’s senses can’t detect that necessarily,” senior meteorologist at the WA Bureau of Meteorology Glenn Cook said.

What the?! “A slow long term trend?” So no catastrophic global warming then? That’s not what Al Gore tells us!

“People’s senses can’t detect that necessarily..”
Is this guy for real? People’s “senses” have been frozen by the record cold!

“So people see these cool conditions and ask what are we talking about with global warming but global warming is still there.

“Global warming is a background trend that has been clearly identified and these cool events will continue and continue for many years to come, they will just become less frequent as time goes on,” he said.

Have you got that?

Global Warming will ensure that record cold events in Perth, like the ones in 2008, become less frequent?!

Global Warming is hiding somewhere in the background and expect the below events to become less frequent, ok?

-Perth is off to a cool wet summer
-Coldest November for Perth in 37 years
-Perth shivers through coldest September morning ever recorded
-One of Perth’s coldest July morning since 1998

Raining on bureau’s parade December 3, 2008

Posted by honestclimate in Temperature.
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Raining on bureau’s parade

From the Andrew Bolt Blog, December 3, 2008

The Bureau of Meteorology (Australia) admits:

In marked contrast with recent months, November was a wet month through most of Australia. Averaged over the continent it was the eighth-wettest November on record, with only a few areas significantly below normal. The wet conditions were also reflected in the temperatures, with daytime maximum temperatures below normal, and overnight minimum temperatures above normal, over large parts of the country.

Not quite what the global-warmists of the Bureau predicted just five weeks ago:

The national outlook for temperatures over the November to January period shows a moderate to strong shift in the odds favouring warmer than normal conditions over eastern Australia. …Across the rest of the country, including WA, south western NT and western SA, the chances of a warmer than average November to January period are between 40 and 60%,

Ditto in September:

The national outlook for average December quarter (October to December) maximum temperatures shows a moderate to strong shift in the odds favouring warmer than normal conditions over much of eastern and southern Australia.

Yes, we still have December to go, but my confidence isn’t high that these same people can accurately predict warming for the next 100 years. And a wake-up, please, to those who shouted that the rains would dry up, so why build a dam?

http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/raining_on_bureaus_parade

New South Wales Premier Rees says Tamworth was in drought but BoM maps say no drought near Tamworth November 30, 2008

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New South Wales Premier Rees says Tamworth was in drought but BoM maps say no drought near Tamworth

By Warwick Hughes November 29, 2008

Warwick Hughs

Warwick Hughs

This is another of these fascinating cases where top Australian politicians seem unable to get the simple facts of rainfall correct. Is this more evidence of a national delusion where rainfall is concerned ?

Premier Nathan Rees is quoted in the ABC Online news story copied below that Tamworth had “..been drought-stricken for some time..”.

I have just downloaded a series of 7 BoM (Australian Bureau of Meteorology) drought maps for all periods, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 24 and 36 months, see below and there is no sign of drought near Tamworth for those periods.
It is telling that the article refers says, “While the rain has broken the drought, valuable crops have been destroyed, including one of the best winter grain crops in the region for years.” Nobody has the common sense to ask, how could such a good crop be grown in a drought ?

It may well be that the NSW Govt is still paying out drought relief to the Tamworth region years after any drought (maybe pre 36 months ago) has ended. I have been aware for years that the Govt pays out drought relief to areas where actual rain bears no resemblance to that indicated on BoM drought maps, see my 2005 article, “Are Martians growing Australian wheat ?”.

Anyway read on to see the reality of the current BoM drought maps for NSW, click below link
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=185


Weather experts should check rainfall figures before being quoted by the media November 30, 2008

Posted by honestclimate in storms.
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Weather experts should check rainfall figures before being quoted by the media

Warwick Hughs

Warwick Hughs

By Warwick Hughes, November 29, 2008

We have all seen articles such as this from The Australian, “Southeast Queensland storms in line with climate change: weather experts”. The article is referring to storms of 18-20 November and the journalist seems intent on getting his headline despite one of the experts cautioning against reading too much into the storms by saying, “..that a series of events by themselves did not “prove” climate change one way or the other.” Full text copied below.

The real interest for me is not the ridiculous headline but the two experts quoted state that “..November in southeast Queensland had generally been a dry month over the past decade..”.

These experts are University of Southern Queensland professor of climate and water resources Roger Stone and Queensland weather bureau (BoM) spokesman Gavin Holcombe.

Now what are the facts about November rainfall in southeast Queensland over the past decade ? Lets look at November rainfall for central Brisbane and Gatton, home to the Professor’s University, taking November data for the 10 years 1998-2007 and comparing to long term averages for November. We find that for Brisbane and Gatton, the November average 1998-2007 is either very close to or exceeds the long term BoM mean(average). So we see that experts much quoted by the media are not fully in touch with simple realities of rainfall statistics, facts they could check in minutes. Is this more evidence of a national delusion about rainfall in Australia ?

Read the rest click below link

http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=184

Brisbane-Toowoomba floods 18-20 Nov 08 highlight failure of 28 Oct BoM rain Outlook November 24, 2008

Posted by honestclimate in storms.
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Brisbane-Toowoomba floods 18-20 Nov 08 highlight failure of 28 Oct BoM rain Outlook

By Warwick Hughes, November 23, 2008

In three short weeks the BoM rain Outlook prediction gets shot to pieces by real world weather.
BoM predicted rain Nov08-Jan09This inset map shows the BoM predicted on 28th October that the Brisbane region had only a 45% chance of average rain for the November to January period.

To see the original map select the 28th October 2008 rain prediction.
Sadly for the BoM prediction a series of high rainfall storms hit the region from the 18th-20th November
Real world rain 1-23 Nov08see map inset of rain anonmalies from 1st to 23rd November.
You can make various rain maps at this BoM site;

See earlier articles re BoM rain Outlook failures.
Early May BoM prediction for Queensland dry shot to pieces quickly in June
June 15th, 2008
and
BoM forecast dry in Queensland contradicts their 23 April modelled rainfall Outlook
May 7th, 2008

http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=182

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