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The scientists used sophisticated American computer climate models…”we are just not going to have that sort of good rain again” March 3, 2012

Posted by honestclimate in Climate Models.
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The below extract is from the The Age on August 30, 2009, regarding a three-year, $7 million collaboration between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO

It’s not drought, it’s climate change, say scientists

The Age
August 30, 2009

…But to see what role greenhouse gases played in the recent intensification, the scientists used sophisticated American computer climate models.

When they ran simulations with only the ”natural” influences on temperature, such as changing levels of solar activity, they found there was no intensification of the subtropical ridge and no decline in rainfall.

But when they added human influences, such as greenhouse gases, aerosols and ozone depletion, the models mimicked what has occurred in south-east Australia – the high pressure systems strengthened, causing a significant drop in rainfall.

”It’s reasonable to say that a lot of the current drought of the last 12 to 13 years is due to ongoing global warming,” said the bureau’s Bertrand Timbal.

”In the minds of a lot of people, the rainfall we had in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s was a benchmark. A lot of our [water and agriculture] planning was done during that time. But we are just not going to have that sort of good rain again as long as the system is warming up.”…

Read full article here

Just a little over a year later (December 2010), the devastating Queensland floods hit and more recently (March 2012), parts of Victoria, the Northern Territory and almost three quarters of NSW are affected by floods.

Now that’s what you call a wash-out of a prediction and yet they say they can predict the climate in 100 years time!

Above, Brisbane’s Wivenhoe dam floodgate release in 2010.

Above, in 2007, Tim Flannery, who is currently serving as Australia’s taxpayer funded Climate Commissioner said, “so even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and river systems …”

Above, Sydney’s Warragamba Dam on the verge of spilling as “Rain records stretching back to 1886 are set to be broken”

Above, residents in northern New South Wales and Queensland’s southern inland are preparing for record floods as thousands are forced to evacuate their homes.

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Comments»

1. Windy - March 3, 2012

This is why the Aussie government needs to censor all media and supressing all such inconvenient truths. The funniest aspect of this story is the idea that the scientists fed in all “natural” influences as if they really even have a clue as to what ALL the “natural” influences are. It is a shame that science, in this case post-normal science, has been taken down the rabbit hole and no longer speaks to reality. I’m sure some kids with a Ouija board could have forecast with about as much accuracy as these GIGO models. lol

2. Manfred Wemmering - March 3, 2012

I wonder whether those global warming extremists got washed out to the ocean with all the rain we are never going to get again?

3. Mervyn - March 9, 2012

What the general public should be told, of course, is that not one of the climate models relied upon by the IPCC has even been close to the reflecting the real world observational data… in fact the models have been way off target. See the following:

http://www.c3headlines.com/2012/03/failed-climate-models.html

4. Breaking: Julia Gillard repeals Carbon Tax « An Honest Climate Debate - March 31, 2012

[...] of permanent drought in Australia due to man made global warming. Australia has since experienced record breaking flooding. Also 2011 was Australia’s coldest year in a decade, defying an established trend to higher [...]


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