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BBC Meteorologist Confirms Climate Skeptic Forecaster Was Right September 14, 2011

Posted by honestclimate in Discussions.
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BBC Meteorologist Confirms Climate Skeptic Forecaster Was Right

John O’Sullivan
Suite101, Sep 13, 2011

British maverick forecaster, Piers Corbyn, wins BBC accolade for best long-range weather prediction for Summer 2011.

With the summer of 2011 ending as the coolest in the United Kingdom since 1993 Corbyn has again left the UK Meteorological (Met) Office in the shade with his unerring accuracy.

BBC meteorologist and former Met man, Paul Hudson, has graciously conceded on his blog, “Of all the long range forecasts I read, only Piers Corbyn at Weather Action can claim success with his summer forecast.” [1.]

Disappointing Official UK Weather Statistics for Summer 2011

Across the UK, the mean summer temperature was 0.4 Celsius below the long-term average making it the coolest for almost 20 years at 13.6 Celsius. Average summer rainfall was almost 20 percent above average with sunshine hours slightly below normal.

These Met Officer figures are “provisional” figures because, once again, they have been released before the end of the month. Piers, always cynical of Met Office motives, warms that often these provisional numbers get revised downwards so we could see 2011 turn out to be chillier and wetter than these numbers show.

The summer of 2011 is the latest in a series of cool, wet summers that the UK’s Met Office has conspicuously failed to predict. The Government forecasters became a national laughing stock after the British media took them to task for their April 2009 gleeful forecast of a “barbecue summer.” The season became a wash out with months of heavy rain.

Not Just Weather, But Climate Models Also Wrong

The Met Office’s repeated failures appear diametrically opposed by the successes of 64-year-old Piers Corbyn, a trained astrophysicist who took up weather forecasting as a boy. Not only did Corbyn score top marks off Hudson but also the avuncular scientist boasts correctly predicting Hurricane Irene and Gulf Storm Lee “85 days ahead.”

Londoner Corbyn is the founder and resident guru of WeatherAction and has been winning fans (and new customers) with his astonishing success rate of 85 percent, as proven in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics [2.]. This achievement is even more remarkable because Corbyn publishes his predictions months in advance.

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Comments»

1. bushbunny - September 14, 2011

Come on!England and Scotland and Wales has been always
considered a cool climate, more rain than sun. One went to the coast as it was fractionally warmer, particularly Bournemouth that had fan ferns growing there, and many French students congregated.

Look – if it became a bit warmer everywhere for a few years, don’t worry that was good! But I will guarantee it will become colder and more rainy, foggy and not a mediterranean climate that it was never
ever to be. Remember in 1963, the Thame froze over again at
Windsor like it did some further up that part in the 19th Century.

Get real! WE are naturally an ice planet with interglacials that effect various parts of the world differently. If the Gulf Stream stops or slows this will with the event of also solar non activity, you will start to cool naturally. However, take heart, you won’t have a full glacial period for at least 500 years that will give the Northern Hemisphere countries, either to move down South (bring your money with you though) or find ways to grow crops in colder temps.

See yer down under.

Bush bunny from Oz.

Look 1940s were cold but we can adapt. Don’t worry – be happy?

2. Alex - September 14, 2011

I have a prediction too: The Met office will soon be demolished.

3. bushbunny - September 15, 2011

Alex – The Met Office should be manned by witch doctors that read entrails for a living. Most probably do a better job too.

4. Debate blog - Julio - September 17, 2011

Well, good for Corbyn reward their work and give you prestige and value to their predictions. There will be attentive.

5. Christian J. (@whatmenaresayin) - September 19, 2011

One old guy with a laptop disintegrated a multi-million dollar so-called professional weather forecasting bureau and they are still there to save their own miserable bacon. Why ?

6. Bob Meyrick - October 5, 2011

As Public Enemy sang, “Don’t believe the hype”. Corbyn’s record isn’t particularly good, he just spins it that way. For example, he forecast January and February 2011 to be as cold as December 2010 (http://www.weatheraction.com/resource/data/wact1/docs/BI1001JAN3to30dFullDetailissue29Dec.pdf and http://www.weatheraction.com/resource/data/wact1/docs/BI1002FEB3to30dFulldetail.pdf), when in fact January was pretty much normal and February was, if anything, slightly milder than usual. Take the time to compare his forecasts with what actually happens.

This comment came from someone on his website -
“Hi Piers as a subscriber i find your forecasts invaluable. the only thing i wish you could provide is a more detailed rain forecast. living in the east midlands we are in drought and have been for months, your forecasts for rain in midlands always seems to fail to reach east mids.Your thoughts please. Best Guy” (http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=383&c=5)
Note that last bit – “your forecasts for rain in midlands always seems to fail to reach east mids”.

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.


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