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A Dozen Global Warming Slogans May 22, 2011

Posted by honestclimate in Discussions.
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A Dozen Global Warming Slogans

Professor Bob Carter

By Professor Bob Carter
Quadrant Online

For many years now, our media outlets have been awash with commentary about dangerous human-caused global warming. The coverage tends to move in spasms relating to events such as meetings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) or, as at present, to government efforts to introduce penal legislation against carbon dioxide emissions in the vain belief that this will “stop global warming”.

Given that carbon dioxide is indeed a greenhouse gas (albeit a mild and diminishingly effective one at currently increasing levels of atmospheric concentration), and that some human-caused emissions accrue in the atmosphere, the question of dangerous warming was a good one to raise back in the late 1980s. Since then, with the formation of the IPCC, and a parallel huge expansion of research and consultancy money into climate studies, energy studies and climate policy, an intensive effort has been made to identify and measure the human signature in the global temperature record at a cost that probably exceeds $100 billion. And, as Kevin Rudd might put it, “You know what? No such signature has been able to be isolated and measured.”

That, of course, doesn’t mean that humans have no effect on global temperature, because we know that carbon dioxide is a mild greenhouse gas, and we can also measure the local temperature effects of human activity, which are both warming (from the urban heat island effect) and cooling (due to other land-use change, including irrigation). Sum these effects all over the world and obviously there must be a global signal; that we can’t identify and measure it indicates that the signal is so small that it is lost in the noise of natural climate variation.

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Comments»

1. Dan Pangburn - May 22, 2011

A simple equation based on the physical phenomena involved, with inputs of accepted measurements from government agencies, calculates the average global temperatures (agt) since 1895 with 88.4% accuracy (87.9% if CO2 is assumed to have no influence). See the equation, links to the source data, an eye-opening graph of the results and how they are derived in the pdfs at http://climaterealists.com/index.php?tid=145&linkbox=true (see especially the pdfs made public on 4/10/10, and 3/10/11).

The future average global temperature trend that this equation calculates is down.

This trend is corroborated by the growing separation between the rising CO2 and not-rising agt. From 2001 through April, 2011 the atmospheric CO2 increased by 21.7% of the total increase from 1800 to 2001 while the average global temperature has not increased. The 21.7% CO2 increase is the significant measurement, not the comparatively brief time period. The trend of the average of the five reporting agencies has declined steeply since the peak of the last El Nino in about March 2010.

Some people are so blinded by ideology that they are unable to recognize reality. However, as the atmospheric CO2 continues to rise in the 21st century while the agt does not, more people will realize that they have been deceived.

2. Oliver K. Manuel - May 23, 2011

Thank you, Professor Carter, for being a voice of sanity in an increasingly insane world of government financed science.

Science seems to have surrendered the basic principles of science for more government support for research. Former President Eisenhower warned that this might happen one day in his farewell address to the nation on 17 January 1961.

This weekend I read the book by Benjamin Hoff, “The Tao of Pooh” (Dutton, 1982).

To my surprise, I learned that Benjamin Hoff attributes some of the problems with modern science to the teachings of the Chinese philosopher, Kung Fu Tse (Confucianism), when compared with the teachings of Lao-tse (Taoism).

Hoff appears to have several valid criticisms of modern science, including its shallowness and its rigidity (desiccated Confucian science).

He suggests that the more contemplative approach of Taoism is more consistent with the basic principles of science.

Again, I appreciate your excellent report.

With kind regards,
Oliver K. Manuel

3. NikFromNYC - May 23, 2011

Because of your involvement with corporate funded organizations, nobody within the cult of Climatology will listen to you. They have been conditioned to become apoplectic when they see anybody’s name even remotely associated with ExxonMobile, as this PR firm web site offers the suggestion of: http://www.desmogblog.com/rm-bob-carter

Here I present The Quick Glance Guide to Global Warming:
Denial: http://oi53.tinypic.com/2zi9d2e.jpg
Oceans: http://oi53.tinypic.com/35b9g08.jpg
Thermometers: http://oi52.tinypic.com/2agnous.jpg
Ice: http://oi52.tinypic.com/2upvlvm.jpg
Earth: http://oi54.tinypic.com/dw2nhw.jpg
Prophecy: http://oi54.tinypic.com/2hq5tae.jpg
Psychopathy: http://oi52.tinypic.com/i56fsg.jpg
Thinker: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n92YenWfz0Y

4. Ross James - January 30, 2012

Here are my points as to why I do not listen to Dr Bob Carter:

1. First of all, it’s difficult to determine where Carter is getting this $100 billion figure from. The article focuses specifically on Australia, and the country has not spent $100 billion on climate research in its entire history, period. Even on a global scale, nowhere near $100 billion has been spent on studies to identify anthropogenic signatures of global warming. This figure unless supported is simply made up.

2. No human warming signatures have been identified is entirely false, and reveals that Carter is either ignorant of the field of climate science, or is not being honest in his article. We have previously addressed the anthropogenic “fingerprints” or “signatures” of global warming in the rebuttal to “it’s not us”. Below is a brief summary of those fingerprints:

the upper atmosphere is cooling
the tropopause height is rising
nights are warming more than days
sea level pressure is rising
precipitation is changing as expected from anthropogenic forcing
ocean heat content is changing as expected from anthropogenic forcing
downward longwave radiation is increasing
upward longwave radiation is decreasing

3. Additionally, the warming trend is accurately projected by climate models – another fact which Carter denies.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics/Hansen_vs_Lindzen_1024.jpg

http://www.realclimate.org/images/model10.jpg

4. Carter also suggests that rather than being man-made, the observed global warming could just be due to natural internal variability: Contrary to Carter’s claim, the average global surface air warming over the past century (0.8°C) is well outside the range of the influence of internal variability on surface temperatures over decadal timescales (generally no more than 0.3°C), and this variability can account for little if any of the 20th century warming

http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/SwansonTsonis.png

Estimation of the observed signature of internal variability in the observed 20th century global mean temperature in climate model simulations (Swanson et al. 2009).

Papers that over turn all of Dr Carter’s hypothesis……….

http://deepeco.ucsd.edu/~george/publications/09_long-term_variability.pdf

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010JCLI3682.1

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/328/5976/316.summary

Dr. Swanson noted:

“What do our results have to do with Global Warming, i.e., the century-scale response to greenhouse gas emissions? VERY LITTLE, contrary to claims that others have made on our behalf. Nature (with hopefully some constructive input from humans) will decide the global warming question based upon climate sensitivity, net radiative forcing, and oceanic storage of heat, not on the type of multi-decadal time scale variability we are discussing here. However, this apparent impulsive behavior explicitly highlights the fact that humanity is poking a complex, nonlinear system with GHG forcing – and that there are no guarantees to how the climate may respond.”

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/07/warminginterrupted-much-ado-about-natural-variability/


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