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Me, in an international conspiracy? by Andrew Bolt November 11, 2009

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Me, in an international conspiracy?

By Andrew Bolt
Herald Sun, November 11, 2009

I HAD no idea I was a corrupt, reckless, arrogant, deceitful, dangerous and gutless conspirator who’d rather put my children in danger than help the Prime Minister stop global warming.

But so Kevin Rudd has told the nation, naming me as one of just four Australians who’ve joined a global cabal plotting to stop him from saving you.

Never have I heard such a mad speech from a prime minister as the one Rudd gave on Friday at the Lowy Institute, when he exposed an alleged “legion of climate change sceptics” who were “active across the world” and had “tentacles” deep in the Opposition.

These “deniers”, now a “major force”, “simply do not care” that “the clock is ticking for the planet” since “the vested interests at work are simply too great”.

So “well resourced” were we “political cowards” that we were “prepared to destroy our children’s future”.

And four times Rudd singled out the four villains at the heart of this plot, as in: “Malcolm, Barnaby, Andrew and Janet – stop gambling with our future.”

Read the rest here

The Climate Engine November 10, 2009

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The Climate Engine

By Erl Happ
Climate Change, November 8, 2009

What follows is a general theory of natural climate variation supported by observation of the changing temperature of the atmosphere and the sea between 1948 and September 2009. This work suggests that strong warming after 1978 is an entirely natural phenomenon.

Imagine a small planet about the size of the Earth orbiting a sun just like our own. The planet has an atmosphere composed of nitrogen (76%), oxygen (23%) and trace gases (1%) of which argon makes up half of that one percent.

Let us further imagine that the sun bombards the Earth with radiation so energetic as to destroy the integrity of nitrogen and oxygen in the planet’s upper atmosphere. The region where this occurs may be called the ‘ionosphere’. When superheated at the highest elevations it can be known as the ‘thermosphere’.  The electrically unbalanced particles of the ionosphere possess negative or a positive polarity. Like iron filings scattered across a piece of paper atop a magnetized iron bar, atmospheric ions orient themselves according to the lines of the planets magnetic field. Rotating with the planet, the ionosphere is a place of constant flux.  Particles are energized on the dayside and dragged into a long tail on the night-side by the pressure of the solar wind, a highly magnetized stream of helium and hydrogen emanating from the sun. There is an exchange of energy between the wind and the ionosphere and particles are accelerated in one direction or the other and re-distributed according to the tension imposed by the constantly changing electromagnetic medium.

As ionized particles radiate energy and cool they will join up with particles of opposite polarity. The junction of one with the other moves the union closer to a ‘neutral’ state.  The orgy of irradiation, excitement, and reorientation, begins anew each day as the sun appears above the horizon. Recombination occurs mainly at night.

Nitrogen requires the most energetic short wave radiation to achieve the ionic state. This energy is available at a higher altitude. Oxygen ions are scarce at altitudes where nitrogen ions are formed because when the music stops, ions of nitrogen grab oxygen partners just as happily as nitrogen partners and there are many more nitrogen partners than oxygen partners.

Where free oxygen ions exist, they do so at a lower level where there is insufficient very short wave radiation to ionize nitrogen.

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Forecasting the Future November 9, 2009

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Forecasting the Future

By Dr. Vincent Gray
ICECAP, November 8, 2009

“Forecasting is difficult: particularly about the future” This piece of wisdom is attributed to Yogi Bear.  But it does not apply to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, since they do not make “forecasts” at all, only “projections”.  As they make clear, “projections” are dependent on the correctness of the assumptions made by the computer models and the futures scenarios from which they are made.

This has not always been so. In the first IPCC Report (1990). on the first page of the “Executive Summary” there was nearly a whole page headed “ Based on current model results, we predict” with no less than ten actual “predictions”.They used the phrase “models predict” several times throughout, but they did, at least admit that there were “uncertainties”.

Chapter 4 was entitled “Validation of Climate Models”. Paragraph 4,12 “Methods and Problems of Model Validation” showed that such validation is quite a problem, and it seemed to show that, so far, no model has been truly validated. Chapter 8 “Detection of the Greenhouse Effect in the Observations” had the answer when it said (paragraph 8.4) “the fact that we have not yet detected the enhanced greenhouse effect leads to the question: when is this likely to occur”

The next Report (1995) had, in its first draft, another Chapter 4 “Validation of Climate Models”. I commented (with, perhaps, others), that since no model had ever been validated, according to their own opinions, the title was inappropriate. So in the next draft they changed the word “validation” to “evaluation” no less that fifty times, and that report and all subsequent ones have not used the terms “predict”, “forecast”, or “validate”. Also there has been no further discussion on how validation might be made. This is true of all of the four parts of the Fourth Report.

I frequently quote this example from their “Frequently Asked Question 1.2”: “A common confusion between weather and climate arises when scientists are asked how they can predict climate 50 years from now when they cannot predict the weather a few weeks from now. The chaotic nature of weather makes it unpredictable beyond a few days. Projecting changes in climate (i.e., long-term average weather) due to changes in atmospheric composition or other factors is a very different and much more manageable issue”.

Note that they insist that all they do is “project”. They are admitting that “scientists cannot “predict climate 50 years from now”. No wonder there is “A common confusion”, The claim that their “projections” are “very different” and “much more manageable” does not include a claim that they can provide successful predictions.

And yet, the politicians, activists and many ordinary people seem to be under the delusion that the IPCC “projections” actually can be regarded as “forecasts” to the extent of promoting all manner of economically damaging measures in the belief of countering them. The above statement seems also to agree that the only scientists capable of actually predicting are the weather forecasters and it might be worth while to examine how this has been achieved, however imperfect it may seem.

Despite all this, the public, the media and the politicians seem to think that the IPCC “projections” are “forecasts” even when the IPCC denies it. It is therefore useful to see whether these projections show any success as forecasts.

The following (enlarged here) table shows a comparison between the “projections” of the IPCC and the observed figures, extrapolated to 2010 from the latest available information. It shows that the IPCC are within range of prediction for population, coal production, CO2 emissions and CO2 concentrations, but they are completely wrong on methane concentrations, global temperature change and sea level change. It might be mentioned that the “projections” for global GDP are also all wrong, but I have been unable to find figures that make adequate allowance for the changes in the US dollar.

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See full newsletter PDF here.

See also the post “Global Warming Predictions Invalidated” by Doug L. Hoffman on The Resilient Earth reporting on the new study in the journal Science has just shown that all of the climate modeling results of the past are erroneous here.

Sunspot numbers for October 2009 November 8, 2009

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Sunspot numbers for October 2009

Source

Month 2008 2009
Jan 3.3 1.3
Feb 2.1 1.4
Mar 9.3 0.7
Apr 2.9 1.2
May 3.2 2.9
Jun 3.4 2.6
Jul 0.8 3.5
Aug 0.5 0
Sep 1.1 4.2
Oct 2.9 4.6
Nov 4.1
Dec 0.8

Australian Prime Minister Kevin “Carbon Bigfoot” Rudd lashes out at skeptics November 7, 2009

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Australian Prime Minister Kevin “Carbon Bigfoot” Rudd lashes out at skeptics

Rudd accuses climate change sceptics, Coalition of ‘reckless bet’ on climate change

November 6, 2009

“By deliberately undermining and eroding the capacity to achieve both domestic and international action on climate change the sceptics are attempting to force the world to take the single most reckless bet in our long history,” Mr Rudd said.

“They are betting our future, the future of our children and our grandchildren.”

Mr Rudd said there were three types of climate change deniers: climate science deniers, those that paid lip service to the science but oppose every practicable mechanism to cut emissions; and those that believe their countries should wait for others to act first.

Read his rant here

P.S. Here in Australia our Prime Minister is referred to as Kevin 747 and the Prime Tourist. Kevin Rudd spent $100,000 a month on overseas travel in his first six months in office. There are Qantas pilots who rack up fewer air miles!

If he’s really so worried about our “children’s fate – and our grandchildren’s fate”, why does he have a carbon footprint the size of the African continent?

image

Australian Prime Minister or Prime Tourist?

(Art by Igor Saktor)

It’s about making cash, not cutting gas November 6, 2009

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It’s about making cash, not cutting gas

By Andrew Bolt
Herald Sun, November 5, 2009

Even greens say emissions trading is more about hot money than hot air:

The world’s carbon trading markets growing complexity threatens another “sub-prime” style financial crisis that could again destabilise the global economy, campaigners warn today.

In a new report, Friends of the Earth says that to date “cap and trade” carbon markets have done almost nothing to reduce emissions but have been plagued by inefficiency and corruption that render them unfit for purpose…

The carbon market, mainly based in Europe, was worth $126bn in 2008 and is predicted to mushroom to $3.1tn by 2020 if a global carbon market takes off.

However, FoE fears that the area has been hijacked by speculators on the financial markets.

But surely Kevin Rudd’s scheme will be better. Right?

Gore’s Profits Of Doom November 5, 2009

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Gore’s Profits Of Doom

Investors Business Daily
November 3,2009

Junk Science: The oracle of climate disaster has a new book out on global warming that should be on the fiction list. He asks us to commit economic suicide while he rakes in millions from his green investments.

‘Our Choice: A Plan to Solve the Climate Crisis,” Al Gore’s sequel to his 2006 tome “An Inconvenient Truth,” came out Tuesday. Printed on recycled paper using low-VOC (volatile organic compound) ink, it will undoubtedly be a best-seller and on the desk of every attendee at next month’s climate change conference in Copenhagen.

In a press release announcing the book, the Oscar- and Nobel Prize-winning former vice president writes: “Now that the need for urgent action is even clearer with the alarming new findings of the last three years, it is time for a comprehensive global plan that actually solves the climate crisis. ‘Our Choice’ will answer that call.”

The book’s cover depicts one of the hurricanes Gore still claims are increasing in frequency and intensity. What has happened in the past three years is that such claims have been thoroughly debunked as the earth has cooled, possibly for decades hence.

For example, a recent study by researchers at Florida State University determined that the 2007 and 2008 hurricane seasons had the least tropical activity in the Northern Hemisphere in 30 years.

Read the rest here

Seeing through hoax of the century November 4, 2009

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Seeing through hoax of the century

By Janet Albrechtsen
The Australian, November 4, 2009

INCREASINGLY, the road to Copenhagen resembles a suburban street on Halloween with the number of climate change freak shows and stunts reaching a nadir in recent weeks. Nicholas Stern says we should turn vegetarian in order to combat climate change. If you must eat meat, eat kangaroos, says Ross Garnaut, because marsupials emit negligible amounts of methane. And that champagne you drank on Melbourne Cup day? Scientists scolded us with a report that a 750ml bottle of bubbly could produce 100 million bubbles, releasing five litres of carbon dioxide.

Yet far from rallying people to the cause of immediate action on climate change, every new cri de coeur may be turning people away. Could it be that those derided as the great unwashed are beginning to ask more questions than their smart political leaders or the bastions of intellectual curiosity in the media?

Late last month, activists gathered at Sydney Opera House to listen to Sydney mayor Clover Moore announce that “the time for talk is past”.

“Already we know that this building, our Opera House, for decades a symbol of optimism and the human spirit, is under threat from global warming,” she says.

The Opera House under threat? That would be from rising sea levels, right? Just like the small island nation of Maldives where, last month, the president conducted a cabinet meeting underwater to remind the world that his country would be rendered uninhabitable by rising sea levels. Kitted out in full scuba-diving outfits, Mohamed Nasheed and his ministers sat at a table underwater off the coast of the capital of Male.

As planned, the president’s stunt made headlines across the globe. Send us money – and lots of it – is his message. The media love stunts. They are so easy to report.

Sadly, the media is not inquisitive enough to report those who question the circus acts of climate change. A week after the Maldives underwater show, Nils-Axel Morner – a leading world authority on sea levels – wrote an open letter to the president telling him that his stunt was “not founded in observational facts and true scientific judgments”.

Read the rest here

Lawrence Solomon: Canadian concern over climate change plummeting November 3, 2009

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Lawrence Solomon: Canadian concern over climate change plummeting

by Lawrence Solomon
Financial Post, November 2,2009

According to a new Climate Confidence Monitor survey released today, support for action on climate change is plummeting in Canada. Just 26% of Canadians consider global warming among their chief concerns, down from 34% in 2008.

Concern in the U.S. is even lower – just 18% , down from 26% in 2008. The UK’s level of concern is the lowest of all, a mere 15%, down from 26% in 2008.

Worldwide, the drop in concern over climate change has also dropped by 8 percentage points, from 42% to 34%.

Read the rest here

CSIRO bid to gag emissions trading scheme policy attack November 2, 2009

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CSIRO bid to gag emissions trading scheme policy attack

By Nicola Berkovic
The Australian, November 2, 2009

THE nation’s peak science agency has tried to gag the publication of a paper by one of its senior environmental economists attacking the Rudd government’s climate change policies.

The paper, by the CSIRO’s Clive Spash, argues the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme is an ineffective way to cut emissions, and instead direct legislation or a tax on carbon is needed.

The paper was accepted for publication by the journal New Political Economy after being internationally peer-reviewed.

But Dr Spash told the Australia New Zealand Society for Ecological Economics conference that the CSIRO had since June tried to block its publication.

Read the rest here

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