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Climatologists Baffled by Global Warming Time-Out November 22, 2009

Posted by honestclimate in Discussions.
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Climatologists Baffled by Global Warming Time-Out

Spiegel Online, November 19, 2009

Global warming appears to have stalled. Climatologists are puzzled as to why average global temperatures have stopped rising over the last 10 years. Some attribute the trend to a lack of sunspots, while others explain it through ocean currents.

At least the weather in Copenhagen is likely to be cooperating. The Danish Meteorological Institute predicts that temperatures in December, when the city will host the United Nations Climate Change Conference, will be one degree above the long-term average.

Otherwise, however, not much is happening with global warming at the moment. The Earth’s average temperatures have stopped climbing since the beginning of the millennium, and it even looks as though global warming could come to a standstill this year.

Ironically, climate change appears to have stalled in the run-up to the upcoming world summit in the Danish capital, where thousands of politicians, bureaucrats, scientists, business leaders and environmental activists plan to negotiate a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Billions of euros are at stake in the negotiations.

Reached a Plateau

The planet’s temperature curve rose sharply for almost 30 years, as global temperatures increased by an average of 0.7 degrees Celsius (1.25 degrees Fahrenheit) from the 1970s to the late 1990s. “At present, however, the warming is taking a break,” confirms meteorologist Mojib Latif of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences in the northern German city of Kiel. Latif, one of Germany’s best-known climatologists, says that the temperature curve has reached a plateau. “There can be no argument about that,” he says. “We have to face that fact.”

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1. Dan Pangburn - November 23, 2009

Properly combine sunspots and ocean turnover and you get a match.

All of the average global temperatures for the entire 20th century and so far in the 21st century are readily and accurately determined with no consideration whatsoever needed of changes to the level of atmospheric carbon dioxide or any other greenhouse gas.

Data sources, an eye-opening graph that overlays the measured and calculated temperatures from 1880 to 2008 and a detailed description of the method are in the paper dated October 14 at http://climaterealists.com/index.php?tid=145&linkbox=true .

This research shows that there is no significant Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) (and therefore no human caused climate change) from added atmospheric carbon dioxide or any other added greenhouse gas.

2. Lynda - November 26, 2009

On a local program tonight there was total insistance that there really is ‘no debate’ on AGW..Not if you know your science…(http://www.lftlc.com/we-hold-these-truths-be-self-evident#comments)…The guy (from the ‘desmog blog’).. stated the ‘deniers’ are old white guys who don’t like fact of AGW…and/or are paid off by oil money…

I’m a layperson – woman…no science background, and kind of hippieish at times…And I’m still ‘in ‘doubt’…And I guess people think I’m really stupid…

I’ve noticed debates going on (at least on the internet) the whole time I was hearing ‘the debate is over’…Well, I never noticed it was ‘over’…

Don’t know what to think…But it does make me mad every time I hear ‘the debate is over’…And I’ve never seen it be over yet…

Am I blind…Or, you guys on here really stupid too?…

3. Paul Pierett - November 27, 2009

Dear Editor,

Referring to my work at nationalforestlawblog.com October letter under my name Paul Pierett, I offer this simple explanation. Most of my charts are in the back of the paper.

Average Winter Temperatures were below freezing during the cooler cycles that began around 1878 and stopped in 1933. The USA began accurate temperature data beginning around 1896. When one correlates that to sunspot activity, for the most part the average temperatures stayed below water freezing temperatures.

As things progressed from 1934 to about 1964 sunspot activity nearly doubled and the average winter temperatures rose to around one degree above freezing.

Then there was a break in action from about 1964 to 1975 and that sunspot cycle was thought to be the start of the mini ice age. It was a long cycle and had as many sunspots as 1996 to 2007, but on a graph it was flat; no hump.

With two previous cycles contributing to average winter temperatures and peaking at five and a half degrees above freezing, this is a change of 10 degrees from 1979 to 2000.

That said we had our strongest hurricane seasons during the warmest cycles and half as much during the cooler cycles. The Polar Ice caps and glaciers melted as the hurricanes got stronger.

Now how does that apply to this dormant temperature period? Much like a roller coaster that slowly reaches the top of the first slope and hits the peak and everyone braces for the ride down, that is where we are at. We are at the peak, a momentary dormant period.

We are at the top, looking over the front of the car and down at the bottom. Rather than this happening in five minutes, thanks to our green hose gases the delay is now at 12 to 13 years. It was up to 14 years. But cold will soon accelerate this as we head to the first valley in 70 years. How fast and how much? It will be an interesting 10 years of study. They come in pairs per Joseph D’Aleo. So the ride down could last up to 20 years plus lag climate lag time.

If you wish to post my work here, send me an email and I will clear it with the web site that now has it posted as a courtesy to the owner.

Most Sincerely,

Paul Pierett

4. Dan Pangburn - November 28, 2009

Natural Climate Change is verified at the October 14 pdf at http://climaterealists.com/index.php?tid=145&linkbox=true by a simple sunspot time-integral combined with an effective ocean turnover.


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