The pain in Maine January 18, 2009
Posted by honestclimate in Temperature.Tags: climate change, Global Cooling, global warming, Temperature
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The pain in Maine
From Watts Up with That, January 17, 2009
I don’t know if any of you readers have ever experienced temperatures that are down to -50°F, but it is painful to endure.
From the NWS WFSO in Caribou, Maine, a report of a new statewide low record event. (h/t to Joe Bastardi via Jeff L). Unlike the WSFO in Chicago, which wants to throw out a statewide record low temperature because they don’t seem to trust the quality control on an AWOS station calibrated the day before in Rochelle, the WSFO in Caribou seems ready to consider the temperature recorded by a USGS gage. Ah, consistency.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
0955 AM EST FRI JAN 16 2009
**********POTENTIAL STATEWIDE RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE*************
AT 0730 AM EST THIS MORNING A USGS GAGE AT BIG BLACK RIVER RECORDED
A LOW TEMPERATURE OF -50F. THIS EXCEEDS THE CURRENT STATEWIDE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF -48F SET ON JANUARY 19TH…1925 AT VAN
BUREN. THIS REPORT IS CONSIDERED UNOFFICIAL UNTIL A REVIEW OF THE
EQUIPMENT AND DATA BY THE STATE CLIMATE EXTREMES COMMITTEE AS TO
THE VALIDITY OF THIS REPORT. IF THE COMMITTEE ASCERTAINS THAT THIS
IS INDEED A VALID REPORT…A SEPARATE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
WILL BE ISSUED AT THAT TIME.
$$
PJR
But wait, there’s more from the Caribou WSFO:
Low Temperatures Recorded 16 January, 2009
Here are the preliminary temperature reports from January 16, 2009.
- First is a map showing temperature reports across northern Maine.
- Second is a listing of temperature reports from locations across northern Maine.
Our appreciation is extended to highway departments, cooperative observers, SKYWARN spotters and the media for these reports.
A special thanks is extended to the general public for phoning in reports via our automated system. Your help is appreciated and aided us greatly in updating our products.
Read the rest here
Prediction of the May 2009 UAH MSU Global Temperature Result January 18, 2009
Posted by honestclimate in Temperature.Tags: climate change, david archibald, global warming
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Prediction of the May 2009 UAH MSU Global Temperature Result
From ICECAP
Dr David Archibald
There are now 30 years of satellite data on global temperature. The graph below shows the University of Alabama Huntsville Microwave Sounding Unit (UAH MSU) results for the period 1978 to 2008.
See larger image here.
Examination of the record shows a change in character in 2001. Prior to that year, global temperatures tended to rise in a narrow band for a couple of years then have a relatively rapid fall. After 2001, temperatures tended to peak in January and then have a much wider annual range than previously. This is shown in the following graph:
See larger image here.
The above graph overlays the month to month results for the period 2002 to 2008, a total of seven years. The larger blue line is the average. For the last seven years, global temperature has tended to fall 0.3 of a degree between January and May, and then rise again to December. Departures from this are caused by El Nino and La Nina events. Just as the 2007 El Nino added 0.2C to the January 2007 result, the 2008 La Nina reduced temperatures in the first half of 2008 by 0.3C. The following figure shows the strength of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) which drives the formation of El Nino and La Nina events.
See larger image here.
Another large La Nina formed in late 2008. The combination of the annual pattern of temperature change and the current La Nina enables a short term forecast of the UAH MSU result to be made. The combination of a 0.3c response to the current La Nina and the usual 0.3C decline from January to May will result in a 0.6C decline to May 2009 to a result of -0.4C (0.4C below the long term average). See PDF here.
Let’s see if David can do better than the UKMO has done in recent years. UKMO is already talking a top 5 warmest 2009.
Ray Evans: Thank God for Carbon January 18, 2009
Posted by honestclimate in Discussions.Tags: carbon, carbon dioxide, climate change, global warming, ray evans
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Ray Evans: Thank God for Carbon
From the Australian Conservative, January 13, 2009
AC | January 13 2009
Thank God for Carbon is the title of a forthcoming Lavoisier Tract by Ray Evans. The publication will be launched by Senator Cory Bernardi in Adelaide on 27 January. Here is an excerpt from the overview:
Despite the gravity of the economic crisis arising from the collapse of financial and credit markets in the US and from thence to Europe and to the rest of the world, the Rudd Government continues to proceed with drafting legislation which will require emitters of carbon dioxide, notably coal-fired power stations, to purchase permits to continue to operate. This scheme of decarbonisation is based on the notion that anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (the consequence of burning fossil fuels) have caused, and will continue to cause, global warming. Because ‘carbon’ fits more easily into newspaper headlines than does ‘carbon dioxide’, carbon has been substituted for carbon dioxide in political discourse, and has become the target of legislation.
Misguided thinking: All time low temperature record for Illinois called into question by NWS citing lack of confidence in equipment. “ASOS better than AWOS” January 17, 2009
Posted by honestclimate in Temperature.Tags: climate change, global warming
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Misguided thinking: All time low temperature record for Illinois called into question by NWS citing lack of confidence in equipment. “ASOS better than AWOS”
From Watts Up with That, January 17, 2009
ASOS (left) AWOS (right) – both at airports click for larger images
People send me stuff. Last night I got an email from reader Andrew Schut that said:
See public information statement below. I’m perplexed.
ASOS was put in for “aviation purposes” given its tolerances, yet we use it for climate purposes, why should AWOS be any different?
Not to mention the sensor that AWOS uses is a Vaisala sensor and at least a decade ahead in terms of sensor technology compared to the prehistoric 1088 RTD thermistor that the NWS has been using since the mid 80’s.
What Andrew was referring to was this unusual public information statement from the National Weather Service in Chicago, nullifying an apparently new low statewide temperature record from Rochelle Illinois:
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
432 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2009
…REGARDING ROCHELLE`S LOW TEMPERATURE THIS MORNING…
THE AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING SYSTEM (AWOS) AT THE ROCHELLE
AIRPORT RECORDED A TEMPERATURE OF -36F AT 745 AM THIS MORNING.
WHILE THE THERMOMETER ON THE AWOS WAS RE-CALIBRATED YESTERDAY
AND MAY INDEED BE ACCURATE…AWOS OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT QUALITY
CONTROLLED OR CALIBRATED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
ARE ALSO NOT DESIGNED FOR CLIMATE PURPOSES.
THEREFORE…THE STATE CLIMATOLOGIST DOES NOT CONSIDER THIS
TEMPERATURE AN OFFICIAL MEASUREMENT FOR THE PURPOSE OF
DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT AN ALL TIME RECORD LOW FOR THE
STATE WAS REACHED. FOR THE PURPOSE OF DETERMINING RECORD
TEMPERATURES FOR THE STATE…ONLY ASOS AND
COOPERATIVE OBSERVER OBSERVATIONS WILL BE USED SINCE BOTH OF
THESE OBSERVATIONS ARE QUALITY CONTROLLED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
See the original here. Personally, I don’t think airports are a suitable place for ANY climate measurements to be made. Here is why.
Airports are dynamic environments, with changes in air traffic, runway upgrades, new runways, new terminals, more tarmac/access roads, and increased infrastructure in general over time. For the NWS in Chicago to say that one ASOS at one airport is somehow better that an AWOS at another, particularly one calibrated the day before, is simply disingenuous. Throw them both out I say. Airports aren’t “quality controlled” for station siting changes. The claim that ASOS is somehow thus better than AWOS is simply ludicrous. There is a basis for this claim.
Let’s look at some examples of ASOS climate stations and the type of quality control that goes on:
First the issue of encroachment by infrastructure, here’s a new fire station going up next to an ASOS station (which is a USHCN climate station) in Lafayette, LA, I believe the station to the lower right is an older AWOS station:
Read the rest here
Inauguration day and climate change politics January 17, 2009
Posted by honestclimate in Discussions.Tags: climate change, global warming, Inauguration day, obama, politics
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Inauguration day and climate change politics
From Watts Up with That, January 17, 2009
Inauguration day 2005: 35 °F Mostly cloudy with some sunny breaks. Northwest wind 14 mph. Around 1″ of snow lay on the ground. More inauguration day weather history is available here
TIMOTHY WIRTH: We called the Weather Bureau and found out what historically was the hottest day of the summer. Well, it was June 6th or June 9th or whatever it was. So we scheduled the hearing that day, and bingo, it was the hottest day on record in Washington, or close to it.DEBORAH AMOS: [on camera] Did you also alter the temperature in the hearing room that day? TIMOTHY WIRTH: What we did is that we went in the night before and opened all the windows, I will admit, right, so that the air conditioning wasn’t working inside the room. And so when the- when the hearing occurred, there was not only bliss, which is television cameras and double figures, but it was really hot.
Divergence Between GISS and UAH since 1980 January 17, 2009
Posted by honestclimate in Temperature.Tags: climate change, Global Cooling, global warming, Temperature
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Divergence Between GISS and UAH since 1980
From Watts Up with That, January 17, 2009
Guest post by Steven Goddard
The GISS website shows the graph below, which indicates a steady, steep warming trend over the last 30 years. The monthly average anomaly for 2008 (0.44) is 0.26 degrees warmer than the monthly average anomaly for 1980 (0.18.) Data obtained from here: http://www.woodfortrees.org/data/gistemp/from:1980/plot/uah/from:1980
This 1980-2008 discrepancy between GISS and UAH is important, as it is nearly equal to the claimed warming trend since 1980.
Read the rest, click here
Time for Denial is OVER January 17, 2009
Posted by honestclimate in humour.Tags: climate change, funny cartoon, Global Cooling, global warming, humor, humour, joke
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Time for Denial is OVER
H/T Tom Nelson
Click here for some funny cartoons on global warming, guaranteed to make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside whilst the globe continues to cool. ..
CHAD: Panic, outcry at government charcoal ban January 16, 2009
Posted by honestclimate in Discussions.Tags: africa, al gore, climate change, climate change madness, global starving, global warming
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Note from the blogowner, honestclimate:
It’s with great sadness and disbelief that I bring you this story of a 
government ban on charcoal in Chad, Africa. Chad is is one of the poorest and most corrupt countries in the world with most Chadians living in poverty as subsistence herders and farmers. According to the United Nations’ Human Development Index, Chad is the fifth poorest country in the world, with 80% of the population living below the poverty line. Charcoal is the sole source of household fuel for about 99 percent of Chadians. Without charcoal they CANNOT cook or heat water.This is what the Environment Minister Ali Souleyman Dabye recently told the media in N’djamena:
“Chadians must find other ways to cook and forget about charcoal and wood as fuel. Cooking is of course a fundamental necessity for every household. On the other hand…with climate change every citizen must protect his environment.”
The world truly has gone mad. Chadians must now starve to death to combat climate change? In the mean time the likes of Al Gore are making millions out of climate change alarmism whilst living it up in mansions with limos and yachts etc. Evidently they never have to worry about where their next meal will come from. Whilst people starve to death in Africa, they are living off the rich pickings of their climate change alarmism. I’ll say it again, the world truly has gone mad.
—————————————————————————————————————–
CHAD: Panic, outcry at government charcoal ban
H/T Tom Nelson
 Photo: IRIN  |
| The Chadian government says its ban on tree-cutting for household fuel is essential to fight desertification (file photo) |
N’DJAMENA, 16 January 2009 (IRIN) – A government ban on charcoal in the Chadian capital N’djamena has created what one observer called “explosive” conditions as families desperately seek the means to cook.
“As we speak women and children are on the outskirts of N’djamena scavenging for dead branches, cow dung or the occasional scrap of charcoal,” Merlin Totinon Nguébétan, head of the UN Human Settlements Programme (HABITAT) in Chad, told IRIN from the capital. “People cannot cook.”
“Women giving birth cannot even find a bit of charcoal to heat water for washing,” Céline Narmadji, with the Association of Women for Development in Chad, told IRIN.
Unions and other civil society groups say the government failed to prepare the population or make alternative household fuels available when it halted all transport of charcoal and cooking wood into the capital in December in a move, officials said, to protect the environment.
Charcoal is the sole source of household fuel for about 99 percent of Chadians, N’djamena residents told IRIN.
With the government blocking all entry of charcoal into N’djamena, and reportedly confiscating any found in the city, charcoal has become nearly impossible to come by, aid workers and residents said. And when it is found, a bag that used to cost about 6,000 CFA francs (US12) is now sold, clandestinely, at about four times that.
Climate change
Government officials said the charcoal ban was part of an effort to halt tree-cutting for fuel, which they said was essential to fight desertification. The government has attempted to block tree-cutting in the past but has severely cracked down in recent weeks, aid workers and residents told IRIN.
“Chadians must find other ways to cook and forget about charcoal and wood as fuel,” Environment Minister Ali Souleyman Dabye recently told the media in N’djamena. “Cooking is of course a fundamental necessity for every household. On the other hand…with climate change every citizen must protect his environment.”
Officials said the ban includes only charcoal made from freshly-cut trees, not that made from dead wood lying about. But all wood and charcoal is being blocked from entering N’djamena, residents said.
 …Women giving birth cannot even find a bit of charcoal to heat water for washing… |
Amid panic and protests over the ban another government official said at a 14 January press conference that the government made a mistake in not preparing the public, but he announced no change. “It is a gaffe; to err is human,” said Nouradine Delwa Kassiré Coumakoye, president of the government’s Social, Economic and Cultural Council.
He called on Chadians to stay calm, saying: “The government can resolve this crisis and find a solution.”
The Chadian Prime Minister on 15 January met with the leader of a national consumers’ rights association, according to the government website.
“Crying out”
Residents and aid experts told IRIN the charcoal ban has complicated already dire living conditions in the city.
“All families in N’djamena are crying out,” Delphine Djiraibé Kemneloum, coordinator of the Monitoring Committee for Peace and Reconciliation, told IRIN.
UN-HABITAT’s Nguébétan said: “This is quite a grave situation because Chadians have always used charcoal for cooking and for heating water.” Many Chadians also make a living from selling charcoal.
“We all agree that desertification is a serious problem that Chad must address,” he said. “But the government must supplement its measures with alternatives for the population.”
The government has mentioned alternatives such as propane but “only abstractly,” Nguébétan said.
Residents said few people use propane in N’djamena, and it is scarce. People who can afford to are traveling across the border to Cameroon to buy gas.
Protest put down
Soldiers and police on 14 January dispersed crowds who gathered in the capital to protest the government’s action as well as the overall high cost of living, people in the capital told IRIN.
“They hit demonstrators, who were mostly women,” said the women’s association’s Narmadji, who was among the marchers.
“Until the government makes a change we will not give up,” she said. “Better to die swiftly and en masse than to continue dying slowly as we are now.” Then she added: “We are already dead.”
Who will tell the Minister? January 16, 2009
Posted by honestclimate in Discussions.Tags: climate change, global warming, Professor Will Alexander, professor william alexander
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Who will tell the Minister?
Professor Will Alexander
By Professor Will Alexander
Via email, January 16, 2009
Scientists are understandably very cautious when criticising government policies. This is particularly so in the situation of state funded institutions. The Anthony Turton case that I described last November is a good example. He was forced to resign from the CSIR because his activities embarrassed the government.
An unfortunate consequence is that in the absence of criticism, the authorities have no way of discerning the truth. This is further amplified when ignorant scientists use this protection from criticism to feather their own nests.
In this situation, the only scientists who can speak out without fear are those who are no longer vulnerable. I am in that position. I also have a very strong motivation to present the truth. It is the plight of the poor and disadvantaged people of Africa. My professional and ethical concerns force me to speak on their behalf whether or not this may upset the authorities.
In the attached memo I caution the Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism that his advisers are leading him into a situation that could easily cause considerable damage to the economy of this country and its peoples, without any balancing benefits. There are appreciable political risks as well.
Please distribute these memos widely.
Hopefully somebody will slip this memo under the Minister’s door.
Memo 03/09
Climate change fantacies. Who will tell the Minister?
Friday 16 January 2009
South Africa is one of the few western democracies where climate change is not a political issue. With a general election due within months, not one of the parties has climate change on its election manifesto. This has advantages for the governing party but it also has considerable political risks.
The Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism has chosen to accept the advice of a handful of climatological and environmental extremists and ignore the views of scientists who disagree with them. Scientists of the National Biodiversity Institute accompanied him to the UNFCCC conference in Poznan, Poland last month.
Sunday Independent.
Last Sunday the Sunday Independent newspaper gave prominence to the Minister’s strongly held views expressed after the failed UNFCCC conference. He expressed no doubts at all on the climate change issue. He detailed measures that South Africa will enforce to reduce emissions from burning fossil fuels.
The article also contained comments urging the Minister not to take steps that will damage our economy. There was an accompanying tongue-in-cheek photograph of a river in Bosnia that could no longer generate hydroelectric power because it was frozen solid. The caption commented: Scientists warn that an increase in the global average temperature of more than 2°C could have disastrous consequences.
I have attached a one-page cut-and-paste copy of the article. Please read it and note the Minister’s views and the balanced reaction to his views on economic grounds.
Who will tell the Minister?
The Minister has chosen to appoint a scientific bodyguard of climate alarmists. At the Midrand conference he stated:
‘We will not be derailed from our responsibility to act by endless engagement with fringe scientists… we have reached and passed this in the debate about the science of climate change.’
Now he has a serious problem. For the past four years several of us have repeatedly warned that there are very serious scientific errors in this whole climate change issue. All of a sudden, around the world scientists in other disciplines have started demonstrating the fundamental errors in current climate change theory. The basic assumption that greenhouse gas emissions cause global temperatures to rise is seriously questioned. My colleagues and I have demonstrated the dominant role of variations in solar activity on multi-year climatic variations. The Internet is full of critical comments of climate change theory and those who propagate it.
In the newspaper article, the Minister mentioned the introduction of a carbon tax; encouraging the use of renewable energy sources; and carbon capture requirements for new coal-fired power stations and oil-from-coal industries.
Has he not been informed that carbon taxes will be passed on to the consumers and so pose a political risk?
Has he not been informed that there are no economically viable sources of renewable energy on the required scale other than nuclear energy?
Has he not been informed that carbon capture technology does not exist?
Is he not aware that at least 90% of the population of this country do not have the slightest interest in climate change?
He complained that some of the developed countries are still playing hide-and-seek with the climate and that this is irresponsible. Surely he must realise that they have a reason for their reluctance. The imposition of uniform restrictions on all countries is not economically feasible because they will result in trade disadvantages to some and advantages to others. It seems that the Minister was chuffed because the rich nations refused to donate large sums of money to the developing nations, including South Africa, for adaptation and mitigation measures.
Surely the Minister must appreciate that there is no way that all nations of the world, developed and developing; rich and poor; will simultaneously agree to commit economic suicide.
Surely he must appreciate that the measures he proposes will cause further job losses and increased poverty and social unrest.
Surely he must realise that there will be no meaningful international agreement at Copenhagen in December. This will leave South Africa high and dry and expose him to ridicule.
Above all, does he not realise the potential risk that he faces when the machinations of his scientific advisers are exposed?
The media and his political opponents will be unforgiving.
Further complications.
The Minister should be informed that it is not only his own ministry that is at risk. Press releases issued before the sudden blackouts show that Eskom’s delay in building new power stations was the consequence of pressures from the Minister. This cost South Africa tens of millions of Rand and thousands of job losses, particularly in the mining and in the construction industries. South Africa is still suffering from this decision.
Given this experience, it is pure fantasy to assume that South Africa can halt further increases in emissions by 2020 (11 years from now), and have absolute emissions reductions of between 80% and 95% below the 1990 levels by mid-century. This target is totally unattainable, particularly in view of our rising population and our progression towards prosperity. Where will our additional electricity supplies come from? What will be the cost to our economy and our citizens? What will the effect be on our national economy? Why does our Minister not supply this information so that the electorate can have a say in his proposals? His dictatorial attitude is not appropriate in our democratic society.
Above all, these actions will not have even a miniscule effect on global warming. Ask any climate alarmist to provide his calculations that support his claims that South Africa’s actions will have a measurable effect on global climate.
His scientific advisers can expect no mercy once their manipulations of the truth become known. The reputation of science as an honourable profession will also be severely damaged.
Given these questions, why does the Minister not establish a multi-disciplinary committee of experts to advise him instead of relying on a small group of climatological and environmental extremists who have zero knowledge in this field? Why do these scientists not make this recommendation themselves? Failure to do so places them at serious risk of being accused of unprofessional conduct.
There are also other state departments that are being dragged into the climatological quicksands. These include the Department of Water Affairs and Forestry as well as the Water Research Commission.
I will discuss the Water Research Commission’s predicament in my next memo.
National disaster ahead.
South Africa has an expanding coal mining and export industry. Why does the Minister not mention this and the associated job losses if the industry succumbs to his pressures?
The Minister’s second portfolio is tourism. This makes up a significant part of our economy. Why does he not mention the consequences of restrictions and increased costs of air and road travel on our tourism industry?
Greenpeace has just established an office in South Africa. There will soon be head-on collisions with the South African authorities.
Internationally, our Minister is fast losing friends. His policies are in direct conflict with those of the powerful developing nations of India and China, and now with the developed nations of Europe and the USA as well.
Put all the above together and what do you get? A national disaster in the making.
Face-saving solution.
As a start the Minister should seriously consider firing his scientific bodyguard.
There is only one solution that can save the Minister and his party from considerable political embarrassment. It is one that I have repeatedly recommended. It is that he should appoint a multi-disciplinary commission of enquiry as a matter of urgency.
But who is going to inform the Minister? His entourage are isolating him from the truth.
Regards
Will Alexander
[Copy of Sunday Independent newspaper article attached.
CONGRATULATIONS Anthony Watts for winning the Best Science Blog award! January 16, 2009
Posted by honestclimate in Discussions.Tags: anthony watts, climate change, global warming
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CONGRATULATIONS Anthony Watts for winning the Best Science Blog award!
By the blogowner, honestclimate, January 16, 2009
I’m extremely pleased to announce that Anthony Watt’s website Watts Up with That, has now officially been declared the winner of the Weblog Awards for the Best Science Blog category.
It’s an award well deserved. Anthony has had to endure years of abuse from alarmists for opening up the man-made climate change debate. And of course the name calling continued in full force when it was discovered that his blog was in the lead. Being the true gentleman that he is, he has never responded in kind.
Anthony has also done great work on the Surface Stations project volunteering his time to survey temperature stations.
You can view his fantastic website here.
