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2008 Coldest Year Since 2000 and Clearly Not a Top Ten Warmest Year January 10, 2009

Posted by honestclimate in Global Cooling.
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2008 Coldest Year Since 2000 and Clearly Not a Top Ten Warmest Year

From ICECAP

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow

2008 ranked 15th coldest of the thirty years of records for the University of Alabama MSU based lower tropospheric temperatures (right in the middle of the pack). It was the coldest year since 2000. It continues the downtrend of the last 7 years. This compares with the Hadley Center data which (together with the equally alarmist WMO) claims 2008 will rank 10th warmest since 1850. (159 years!). How can an “average year” in one data base appear be a “top 6%” warmest year in another?

Well the global data bases of NOAA GHCN, NASA GISS and Hadley CRUT3v are all contaminated by urbanization, major station dropout, missing data, bad siting, instruments with known warm biases being introduced without adjustment and black box and man made adjustments designed to maximize warming (Steve McIntyre found more urban areas had their temperatures adjusted up then down). Also ocean temperatures are an issue with a change in the methods of measurement and incomplete coverage. Hadley uses their own merchant ship data and that covers some heavily travelled routes but has no coverage of the vast southern oceans (the oceans cover 70% of the world’s surface).

The biggest issue is station dropout. 2/3rds of the world’s stations, many rural areas in the FSU stopped reporting around 1990. Climatologist David Legates at the University of Delaware are prepared this animation. See the lights go out in 1990. The below plot of the NOAA/NASA station count (blue line) and average annual temperatures (brown columns). It clearly shows the big dropoff of rural stations. The animation above shows that Siberia is one area with the biggest change.

image
See larger image here.

Average temperatures for the station categories jumped when the stations dropped out, suggesting that it was mainly the colder stations that were no longer in the record. The global data bases all set up grid boxes globally and populate the temperatures for the box using data from within that box or now with many empty boxes using the closest stations weighted by distance in nearby boxes. Thus a box which had rural stations, will find temperatures now determined by urban areas in that box or distant boxes. This is why the global data bases suggest the greatest warming has been in Siberia.

Also a factor is that in the FSU era, the cities and towns temperatures determined allocations of funds and fuel, so it is believed that the cold was exaggerated in the past introducing an artificial warming. See the details of these numerous data integrity issues here.

The Hadley monthly and UAH MSU monthly lower tropospheric temperatures are shown. Both show cooling (0.2C (0.3F)) for MSU and (0.15C (0.25F)) for Hadley. Note the significant NEGATIVE correlation of temperatures with CO2.

image
See larger image here.

Anomaly differences come from the base period to compare to and compute anomalies. The Hadley used 1960 to 1990 and the satellite centers 1979-1998.  Satellite microwave sensing is not subject to any of these problems and provides full global coverage. It integrates local warming due to urbanization. It is as a result is the most reliable and trustworthy. Unfortunately the data extends only back to 1979. Nonetheless, you can use the above to conclude this past year was not the 10th warmest year as the alarmists are claiming. Read more here.

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Comments»

1. Tuukka Simonen - January 12, 2009

Go check here how “biased” the data is:

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/

You can compare different datasets, for example, here are the linear trends for GISTEMP, HadCRUT, UAH and RSS all in one graph:

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1979/trend/plot/gistemp/from:1979/trend/plot/uah/trend/plot/rss/trend

Which one of those doesn’t show it’s getting warmer?

A good idea is also to compare monthly data between the datasets. You’ll see that they follow each other’s patterns really really well.

2. honestclimate - January 12, 2009

Dear Tuukka Simonen

With record levels of c02, why is 2008 the coldest year since 2000?
With all the c02 increasing at record levels, why has no year “beaten” the El Nino year of 1998?
What has been driving the climate lately?
Hint: La Nina and lack of sunspots…

3. Tuukka Simonen - January 12, 2009

Your hint hits just the right spot: la ENSO, NAO, lack of sunspots… they do cause noise in the trend, but they do not change the trend.

All this is really well explained here:
[Link removed, stick to the science, not websites which engage in ad hominem attacks, pls]

OK, it’s lacking 2008 since the post is old but you’ll surely see the point.

4. honestclimate - January 13, 2009

Dear Tuukka Simonen

When you have record cold and snow it’s “noise”/weather and a hot day is man-made climate change, I understand completely now.

Interesting how we haven’t had a record hot year since 1998. Human c02 seems to be no match for the natural forces of La Nina and lack of sunspots…

5. Joe gamache - May 17, 2009

There will never be an honest reckoning in this matter. Too much money and ideology involved. Science is not a savior…nor is it a harbinger of Armageddon. Science is just a tool… Or in the case of global warming hysteria, a weapon.

6. Magnus A - January 19, 2010

Honest Climate Debate. Yup, sunspot is important, and also the ocean oscillation PDO (and maybe to a minor extent AMO).
.
Monckton says in the program with Coleman, below, that between the 80s and 2000 low level clouds decreased several percent so that the albedo decreased 2 percent which is as much energy as from all released CO2 since the 1850. It’s when 3:20 minutes is left in part 1 of “Global Warming: The Other Side”:
.
http://www.kusi.com/weather/colemanscorner/81557272.html
.
One peer reviewed paper is e g Palle et al.:
.
http://solar.njit.edu/preprints/palle1266.pdf
.
See the conclusion. IPCC says (chapter 2…) CERES shows the oposite, but that is frankly not true. Maybe they use an erroneous result by Lockwood and Frolich… (they noted a minor opposite trend fror a decade in phase before this, but it was actually a minor trend in the other direction).
.
What do our friend Tuukka Simonen says about this? I mean, after all I’m just the mentally ill oil funded flat-Earther… Plz, say something.
-
Br, Magnus A

7. Magnus A - January 19, 2010

Oops. Singular form…

I mean “sunspots are important”. ;)

8. John A - July 3, 2012

2012 updates?


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